A 2500(yr) cycle may take 25 years to top (Worldwide stocks may take another eight years to top out)

India Daily ^ | Nov. 19, 2005 | Karen Franz

[nickcarraway]

There are lots of bearish sentiment around. There are no lacks of bulls either. The stock market all around the world on the basis of constant dollar did pick in late eighties led by that of Japan. It is a mega bull cycle that started with the Roman Empire. Since then world never really saw a long term bull market. The market may have finally started topping out in that 2500 year cycle. But such mega cycles take an enormous time to top out. For a cycle that started 2500 years back, it is prudent to assume that it will take 25 years to top out srating from 1988. That means the stock market relative to 1987-88 constant dollar base normalized with respect to zero acceleration of Gold and Silver prices will take another eight years to top out!

The topping process of such large bull market cycle is always associated with fantasy fundamentals. The first set of fantasy comes with the central banks all around the world. India’s finance minister is an economic theorizing guru. In the West economists have taken control over the central banks. That just show theoretical economics is in control. It is just a sign that the stocks are topping out.

The craze about somehow manipulate the books and show some profit over the last quarter with little regard to corporate book keeping ethics is another case which shows stocks are getting ready for big but slow decline.

But the biggest trick lies in timing the down fall of the world economies. Please note while it will certainly happen unless all the ludicrous fiscal excesses from manipulated currency based outsourcing to unimaginable budget deficits are soon neutralized, when the financial meltdown will occur is difficult to predict. This range of Dow between 9000 and 11000 may continue for another eight to ten years.

Fundamentals are weak and all signs are there for a financial crisis, it may not happen for a long time. According to some, we may experience lackluster stock market for even next twenty years.

[nickcarraway]

Well, just when you thought you had seen them all. You've got to give them point for creativity.

[SunkenCiv]

I wonder when the "history goes in cycles" wangdoodles will bottom out (provided that op-ed isn't it)? ;')

I guess the downfall of Rome and the onset of the Middle Ages don't count as an economic downturn. :')

[Choose Ye This Day]

Another fine example, once again proving the adage: Never let a machine screw up what a human can do better.

Friends don't let friends have their computers translate documents for them.