Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
Well I got a good night’s sleep last night because we’re not going to get much of it.
It seems if Deval Patrick isn’t much of a Red Sox fan(shocking)
Well, I won't harrass him for that. Not everybody cares about baseball. It's not like there is a requirement that the governor of a state has to be a fan of every professional sport in that state.
Heck, even in New York City, the Mets hardly ever got an encouraging word from Giuliani when he was mayor.
Rooodi, by the way, is cheering for the Red Sox in this World Series. I, on the other hand, would like to see the National League do well, so I am pulling for the Rockies.
You are right,but if you’re going to make public comments about the team, take five or ten minutes before you face the press and get a few facts before sounding like a dope.
They predicted them to make the World Series, and that was pretty unpredictable.
I think that Tavarez may not be available physically. Because Tito selected both Gagne and Snyder over him and Tavarez seemed to be a no-brainer for the WS games in Denver.
I think that Tavarez may not be available physically. Because Tito selected both Gagne and Snyder over him and Tavarez seemed to be a no-brainer for the WS games in Denver.
The Rockies have lost a grand total of 1, count ‘em, 1 game over the past 39 days.
Cool, they’re obviously way over due :)
The 1967 A.L. pennant race ... the best ever.
Hope you are out of harms way and can check in tonight.
Rudy being Rudy
You have one of my all time favorite managers in Lou (formerly of my home town Mariners). There is hope!!
Thanks for putting up this World Series thread. Were you going to put up a thread every day or will this be the ongoing thread for the entire series? If this is the main live thread for the series, then I will earmark it.
Yeah, it’s the whole series thread. The ALCS thread hit 3000+ posts and it was kind of neat that it was so massive.
if i were colorado the only thing i would be doing is going back to that one game that cut the streak in two, and see what went wrong. im glad to see a team like colorado make it to the WS, but theyre going to lose in six. go sox!
In game 3 at Coors Field, who sits for the Red Sox, Youkilis, Ortiz, or Lowell? Youk had a hot bat in the ALCS. Ortiz big bat protects Manny as Manny bat protects Ortiz, and taking Lowell's out of the line up hurts too.
Youk and Lowell are interchangeable at third. I don't think you put Ortiz anywhere else except at first base. Will Francona put Lowell or Youk in the outfield?
This will probably come down to game day decisions by Francona. Tito should start the 2 hottest bats.
What say you?
Listened to an interview at lunch with Francona, depends on Ortiz's knee, if he can play first it will be Lowell sitting Youk at third. He won't even entertain the thought of Youk in the outfield or Lowell and second.
I think all 3 will sit one game out but be the pinch hitter when needed. Youk will certainly be Ortiz’ defensive replacement.
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