Posted on 01/03/2008 9:25:19 AM PST by SunkenCiv
Additional position observations for asteroid 2007 WD5 taken on December 29 through January 2 have been used to improve the accuracy of the asteroid's orbit.
As a result, the range of possible paths past Mars has narrowed by a factor of 3 and the most likely path has moved a little farther away from the planet, causing the Mars impact probability to decrease slightly to 3.6% (about one chance in 28).
The new positional observations were made using the 2.4 meter telescope at New Mexico Tech's Magdalena Ridge Observatory and reported by astronomer Bill Ryan.
It seems likely that as additional observations further shrink the uncertainty region of this asteroid, the region will no longer intersect Mars and the impact probability will quickly drop to zero.
(Excerpt) Read more at marsdaily.com ...
Updated Uncertainty Region for 2007 WD5 at encounter with Mars, shown as white dots. The thin white line is the orbit of Mars. The blue line traces the motion of the center of the uncertainty region, which is the most likely position of the asteroid. Note that the scale is considerably finer than it has been in past diagrams.by Don Yeomans, Paul Chodas and Steve Chesley Pasadena CA (JPL)
related, earlier topics:
Scientists say asteroid may hit Mars in late January
(1 in 75 chance on Jan. 30, 2008)
ap on Examiner.com | 12/20/07 | Alicia Chang - ap
Posted on 12/20/2007 9:27:00 PM EST by NormsRevenge
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1942591/posts
Astronomers Monitor Asteroid To Pass Near Mars
Science Daily | 12-21-2007 | NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
Posted on 12/21/2007 7:02:43 PM EST by blam
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1943021/posts
Scientists say there is 4 percent chance asteroid could hit Mars
(Odds improve, still a longshot)
AP on Bakersfield Californian | 12/28/07 | Alicia Chang - ap
Posted on 12/28/2007 7:20:49 PM EST by NormsRevenge
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1945383/posts
Astronomers Monitor Asteroid to Pass Near Mars
(odds are now 1 in 25 of an impact)
NASA media | Dec. 28, 2007 | NASA
Posted on 12/30/2007 11:24:57 AM EST by Lokibob
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1945936/posts
and some sidebars:
Hitch hike to Mars inside an asteroid
New Scientist | 23 October 2006 | David Shiga
Posted on 10/23/2006 2:43:10 PM EDT by SunkenCiv
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1724431/posts
NASA’s Dawn Spacecraft Begins Trek to Asteroid Belt
Space.com | 27 September 2007 | Tariq Malik
Posted on 09/27/2007 4:10:44 PM EDT by saganite
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1903165/posts
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"The odds of anything coming from Mars are a million to one..."
Darn. This would have been amazing to observe.
Yes, and “Thunder Child” would have been a good name for it. :’) There’s a Discovery article about the object:
Mars Asteroid Stirs Concern for Earth
Irene Klotz, Discovery News
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2008/01/02/mars-asteroid-strike.html
Thanks!
1 in 28,, not real promising. Oh well.
;’) 1:25 wasn’t that great either. :’D
;’) 1:25 wasn’t that great either. :’D
-
True.
Ya never know, this one came up kind of quick,, maybe next time around.. it’s surprising how much stuff there is hurtling thru open space and not that far from us here..
It definitely would have distracted a lot of folks from politics for a bit,, church attendance would likely go up too. ;-)
Odds are the chance of impact will go to zero in a few more days. Sure would be great for Mars geologists to have a fresh crater maybe cutting down to some permafrost.
:’)
Scientists say asteroid may hit Mars in late January
(1 in 75 chance on Jan. 30, 2008)
ap on Examiner.com | 12/20/07 | Alicia Chang - ap
Posted on 12/20/2007 9:27:00 PM EST by NormsRevenge
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1942591/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1942591/posts?page=86#86
In the meantime, NASA can look for new craters made by objects too small to detect while still in solar orbit.
NASA Briefing: NASA Images Suggest Water Still Flows in Brief Spurts on Mars
NASA | 6 December 2006
Posted on 12/06/2006 1:46:00 PM EST by bd476
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1749378/posts
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mars/images/pia09020.html
[snip] The first fresh impact site, shown on this page, was first noticed on Jan. 9, 2006, in an image acquired three days earlier. The image was acquired by the wide-angle camera at its highest possible spatial resolution, about 240 meters (262 yards) per pixel. To the northwest of the area imaged by the narrow-angle camera, the red, wide-angle context frame showed a dark spot. This spot was not present in any previous image acquired by any spacecraft, from Mariner 9 (which arrived in 1971) on down through Mars Express (which arrived in 2003). [end]
A big, fresh crater that has punched through and excavated a thousand feet deep perhaps through permafrost layers would do a lot more than these little five foot craters that merely stir up the dry dust.
the last word (unless it hits, of course; or the object turns out to be on an Earth-threatening trajectory):
No big bang: Asteroid will miss Mars
AP | Jan 10, 2008
Posted on 01/11/2008 2:20:05 AM EST by Aristotelian
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1951897/posts
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