Posted on 10/08/2010 8:50:52 PM PDT by Maelstorm
We havent written as much about Illinois as some other Senate contests but it may be taking on an increasingly important role as some other races that had once looked to be competitive, like Connecticut and Missouri, now show a clearer advantage for one or another party.
The race in Illinois has long been within the margin of error in most polls; our forecasting model last week characterized it as a near-tie, with the Republican Mark Kirk projected to win by 0.4 points over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias.
Whats unusual about Illinois is the number of voters committed to minor-party candidates like the Green Partys nominee, LeAlan Jones, and the Libertarian, Mike Labno or who havent committed to a candidate at all yet. Collectively, the third-party candidates have held between 5 and 11 percent of the vote in recent polls, while about 10 to 15 percent of voters remain undecided.
Such a circumstance is quite unusual. I searched our database of Senate race polls and came up with only four examples since 1998 in which neither major-party candidate had more than 42 percent of the vote in the polling average with a month to go in the campaign:
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
A Republican winning by 0.4% in the People’s Republic of Illinois is guaranteed to lose by 3% or so.
It’s tough to get excited when the choice is between Frick and Frack.
Look...it’s Illinois.
What can we say.
It’s going to be the choice between a caca pizza or crap on crackers.
Mike Labnowho?
I mean...he might be terrific and all...but it’s ILLINOIS.
A lot of freepers don’t like Kirk, but it seems over the pale for supposedly “family value” voters to vote for Kirk’s Rat opponent just because of that. If no candidate is suitable, don’t vote for any.
You are wrong. You are going to see on election day and what a pity. All the polling shows that illinois wants a Tea Party candidate.
Labno is already moving up in the polls. There are 3 liberals and one Conservative in this race. If you can’t do the math then we conservatives have rough seas ahead.
Mike Labno is the real deal. He has actually increases he vote margin. I found out from Jonathan Weisman (Wallstreet Journal) that a third party is now push polling him letting conservatives know that Labno is Pro-Life Pro-Gun and a real conservative and that Kirk is not. Mike has nothing to do with it but it is getting results. He has moved up in the polls to 5% from 3%. Rasmussen refused to list his name because he is doing so well. This is an opportunity for the Tea Party and conservatives. Mike is not a nut. He is a common man. A construction foreman by day and campaigning by night. I know him personally and he deserves our support. If we really want change we need to make it. Labno is going to hit the big time next week. Then we will see what Kirk does. I’m just waiting for them to take the bait and start attacking him.
So....you’re telling me that Labno is going to win in Illinois?
Are we allowed to make bets on FR?
He can with money. With commitment from the Tea Party and Values Voters. He can win. Will he it is yet to be seen. Right now some third party is push polling him. I don’t know who. They aren’t with his campaign but you can expect next week something interesting to happen. I don’t bet on anything. I’m putting my hours in. Helping Mike and his team. Libertarians really aren’t very good at campaign stuff. Next week is the make or break and win or lose I know I’m doing the right thing supporting a good man. People told me Scott Brown couldn’t win when I posted some of the first supportive articles about him. They told me the same about Marco Rubio. Even I didn’t think Sharron Angle or Christine O’Donnell would win their primaries till late in the game. Sharron Angle made me smile. I know in my heart that Mike can win. The variables are there for a watershed moment if the will is there. Illinois voters don’t like either the Democrat or the Republican. There are three liberals and a conservative in this race this year Mike Labno a Construction foreman who grew up on the wrong side of the street in Cicero can win.
-Fred
I’m in Illinois. While I admire your dedication...I don’t see it happening. So get ready...it won’t be the first time that the good guy has lost...
Kirk is terrible. The only silver lining is that he will probably have to ingratiate himself with the GOP establishment early on, so I expect a lot of party-line votes in his first term, if he’s elected.
Labno’s The One! But IL is too ill to figure it out.
I’m supporting the Libertarian candidate for CA Lt. Gov. over the RINO Maldonado and the Liberal Newsom.
While I would not normally advocate voting 3rd party in an important Senate race, I do think if there ever was a reason to, this is it!
It is very similar to the CA Lt. Gov. situation.
Perhaps you should read the first post over again.
Labno is not the Democrat in the race.
He is the Tea Party candidate, running as a Libertarian.
What will Rahm do now if he does not buy and find votes to win as Mayor?
The central reason the Rinos took over and the mess we are in economically is that value voters decoupled from their economic conservative goals. All the rinos had to to was throw us a meaningless bone of anti-abortion or anti-stem embryoic cell research and we voted for them. Socialists then took over both parties. Including Mr. Bush who took over education in “no child left behind” and who expanded medicare to drugs. In addtion, while adding all this spending with wars, he cut taxes and balooned the deficit. He did not raise effective heck about the banksters crashing the real estate market. Conservatives let that all be okay. No more!
My remark wasn’t made about Labno, who’d be playing the role of spoiler rather than being a Rat. It’s about others who actually do think it better to directly cast their vote for a Rat.
Family values votes aren’t “meaningless” or “mere bones.” God is more likely to bless a country whose rulers don’t grok business economics than one whose rulers directly count life as cheap.
I totally agree with you and I am sorry if I left the impression that the protection of human life is meaningless. It is not.
However, you can see what happens when that is the only issue we focus on and leave our politicians to forget about corruption in our economic and political life and corruption in the rule of law. We need to pay attention to it all or the American life we protect is going to look like the ravished life in a third world country.
Name me ONE legitimate long-time Illinois Freeper that's voting for that mob-money-laundering crook Giannoulias over Mark Kirk because they don't like Kirk.
Name ONE.
And NO, voting for a third-party candidate is NOT a vote for the DemocRAT in the race.
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