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Illinois Voters, Unhappy With Candidates, Show Few Signs of Committing
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ^ | October 7, 2010 | By NATE SILVER

Posted on 10/08/2010 8:50:52 PM PDT by Maelstorm

We haven’t written as much about Illinois as some other Senate contests — but it may be taking on an increasingly important role as some other races that had once looked to be competitive, like Connecticut and Missouri, now show a clearer advantage for one or another party.

The race in Illinois has long been within the margin of error in most polls; our forecasting model last week characterized it as a near-tie, with the Republican Mark Kirk projected to win by 0.4 points over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias.

What’s unusual about Illinois is the number of voters committed to minor-party candidates — like the Green Party’s nominee, LeAlan Jones, and the Libertarian, Mike Labno — or who haven’t committed to a candidate at all yet. Collectively, the third-party candidates have held between 5 and 11 percent of the vote in recent polls, while about 10 to 15 percent of voters remain undecided.

Such a circumstance is quite unusual. I searched our database of Senate race polls and came up with only four examples since 1998 in which neither major-party candidate had more than 42 percent of the vote in the polling average with a month to go in the campaign:

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


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KEYWORDS: giannoulias; illinois; kirk; labno
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This race isn't over. Even among voters who say they are voting for Kirk or Giannoulias as much as 40% say they are not certain they will vote for them in some polls. That is a huge number and indicates that Illinois voters are upset with the two major party choices. Mike Labno is a 100% grassroots candidate. He gets up every day and goes to work as a construction foreman before coming home to run his campaign and go out all over the place to Tea Party events. He is the real deal. People are noticing and a lot are waiting on the sidelines to jump in. Those who look to Kirk for lame duck salvation are only fooling themselves. We don't need another liberal Republican albatross which is exactly what he is. He is no moderate. The only thing he is moderate on is that he is sometimes a fiscal conservative but that isn't even reliable he voted for TARP and the second Obama stimulus and Cap and Trade. If this is the kind of candidate you want then you just want to go back to the good ole bad days when big spending Republicans were in charge. Let's strike a new course and follow our consciences. Patriots don't look for easy victories we 'cross the Delaware' against the darkness and achieve victory against all odds. This is an opportunity for the Tea Party and Conservatives to show our power and to send a message that we've had enough of them playing cards under the table against us.


He's one Man against the Liberal Democrat Mob(Alexi) and the Liberal GOP Machine(Kirk) in Illinois.They say he can't win. He's on the Ballot but they won't let him debate. Help give him a voice so "the people" can decide.

http://www.labno4senate.com/

Mike Labno for U.S. Senate - The Man Against the Machine

1 posted on 10/08/2010 8:50:57 PM PDT by Maelstorm
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To: Maelstorm

A Republican winning by 0.4% in the People’s Republic of Illinois is guaranteed to lose by 3% or so.


2 posted on 10/08/2010 8:58:18 PM PDT by Rembrandt (.. AND the donkey you rode in on.)
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To: Rembrandt

It’s tough to get excited when the choice is between Frick and Frack.


3 posted on 10/08/2010 9:07:59 PM PDT by hampdenkid
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To: Maelstorm

Look...it’s Illinois.

What can we say.

It’s going to be the choice between a caca pizza or crap on crackers.

Mike Labnowho?

I mean...he might be terrific and all...but it’s ILLINOIS.


4 posted on 10/08/2010 9:15:23 PM PDT by Winstons Julia (The liberal mantra: Never enough.)
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To: Maelstorm

A lot of freepers don’t like Kirk, but it seems over the pale for supposedly “family value” voters to vote for Kirk’s Rat opponent just because of that. If no candidate is suitable, don’t vote for any.


5 posted on 10/08/2010 9:18:06 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (I am in America but not of America (per bible: am in the world but not of it))
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To: Winstons Julia

You are wrong. You are going to see on election day and what a pity. All the polling shows that illinois wants a Tea Party candidate.
Labno is already moving up in the polls. There are 3 liberals and one Conservative in this race. If you can’t do the math then we conservatives have rough seas ahead.


6 posted on 10/08/2010 9:18:35 PM PDT by Maelstorm (This country was not founded with the battle cry "give me liberty or give me a govt check!")
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To: HiTech RedNeck

Mike Labno is the real deal. He has actually increases he vote margin. I found out from Jonathan Weisman (Wallstreet Journal) that a third party is now push polling him letting conservatives know that Labno is Pro-Life Pro-Gun and a real conservative and that Kirk is not. Mike has nothing to do with it but it is getting results. He has moved up in the polls to 5% from 3%. Rasmussen refused to list his name because he is doing so well. This is an opportunity for the Tea Party and conservatives. Mike is not a nut. He is a common man. A construction foreman by day and campaigning by night. I know him personally and he deserves our support. If we really want change we need to make it. Labno is going to hit the big time next week. Then we will see what Kirk does. I’m just waiting for them to take the bait and start attacking him.


7 posted on 10/08/2010 9:23:40 PM PDT by Maelstorm (This country was not founded with the battle cry "give me liberty or give me a govt check!")
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To: Maelstorm

So....you’re telling me that Labno is going to win in Illinois?

Are we allowed to make bets on FR?


8 posted on 10/08/2010 9:24:05 PM PDT by Winstons Julia (The liberal mantra: Never enough.)
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To: Winstons Julia

He can with money. With commitment from the Tea Party and Values Voters. He can win. Will he it is yet to be seen. Right now some third party is push polling him. I don’t know who. They aren’t with his campaign but you can expect next week something interesting to happen. I don’t bet on anything. I’m putting my hours in. Helping Mike and his team. Libertarians really aren’t very good at campaign stuff. Next week is the make or break and win or lose I know I’m doing the right thing supporting a good man. People told me Scott Brown couldn’t win when I posted some of the first supportive articles about him. They told me the same about Marco Rubio. Even I didn’t think Sharron Angle or Christine O’Donnell would win their primaries till late in the game. Sharron Angle made me smile. I know in my heart that Mike can win. The variables are there for a watershed moment if the will is there. Illinois voters don’t like either the Democrat or the Republican. There are three liberals and a conservative in this race this year Mike Labno a Construction foreman who grew up on the wrong side of the street in Cicero can win.

-Fred


9 posted on 10/08/2010 9:34:40 PM PDT by Maelstorm (This country was not founded with the battle cry "give me liberty or give me a govt check!")
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To: Maelstorm

I’m in Illinois. While I admire your dedication...I don’t see it happening. So get ready...it won’t be the first time that the good guy has lost...


10 posted on 10/08/2010 9:56:15 PM PDT by Winstons Julia (The liberal mantra: Never enough.)
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To: hampdenkid

Kirk is terrible. The only silver lining is that he will probably have to ingratiate himself with the GOP establishment early on, so I expect a lot of party-line votes in his first term, if he’s elected.


11 posted on 10/08/2010 10:13:05 PM PDT by Rutles4Ever (Ubi Petrus, ibi ecclesia, et ubi ecclesia vita eterna!)
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To: Maelstorm

Labno’s The One! But IL is too ill to figure it out.


12 posted on 10/08/2010 10:42:08 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Rush was right when he said America may survive Obama but not the Obama supporters.)
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To: Maelstorm

I’m supporting the Libertarian candidate for CA Lt. Gov. over the RINO Maldonado and the Liberal Newsom.

While I would not normally advocate voting 3rd party in an important Senate race, I do think if there ever was a reason to, this is it!
It is very similar to the CA Lt. Gov. situation.


13 posted on 10/09/2010 2:42:14 AM PDT by counterpunch (End the Government Monopoly!)
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To: HiTech RedNeck

Perhaps you should read the first post over again.
Labno is not the Democrat in the race.
He is the Tea Party candidate, running as a Libertarian.


14 posted on 10/09/2010 2:46:21 AM PDT by counterpunch (End the Government Monopoly!)
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To: Maelstorm

What will Rahm do now if he does not buy and find votes to win as Mayor?


15 posted on 10/09/2010 11:37:12 AM PDT by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
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To: Maelstorm

The central reason the Rinos took over and the mess we are in economically is that value voters decoupled from their economic conservative goals. All the rinos had to to was throw us a meaningless bone of anti-abortion or anti-stem embryoic cell research and we voted for them. Socialists then took over both parties. Including Mr. Bush who took over education in “no child left behind” and who expanded medicare to drugs. In addtion, while adding all this spending with wars, he cut taxes and balooned the deficit. He did not raise effective heck about the banksters crashing the real estate market. Conservatives let that all be okay. No more!


16 posted on 10/09/2010 1:03:00 PM PDT by SaraJohnson
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To: counterpunch

My remark wasn’t made about Labno, who’d be playing the role of spoiler rather than being a Rat. It’s about others who actually do think it better to directly cast their vote for a Rat.


17 posted on 10/09/2010 1:21:53 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (I am in America but not of America (per bible: am in the world but not of it))
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To: SaraJohnson

Family values votes aren’t “meaningless” or “mere bones.” God is more likely to bless a country whose rulers don’t grok business economics than one whose rulers directly count life as cheap.


18 posted on 10/09/2010 1:25:48 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (I am in America but not of America (per bible: am in the world but not of it))
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To: HiTech RedNeck

I totally agree with you and I am sorry if I left the impression that the protection of human life is meaningless. It is not.

However, you can see what happens when that is the only issue we focus on and leave our politicians to forget about corruption in our economic and political life and corruption in the rule of law. We need to pay attention to it all or the American life we protect is going to look like the ravished life in a third world country.


19 posted on 10/09/2010 6:20:13 PM PDT by SaraJohnson
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To: HiTech RedNeck
A lot of freepers don’t like Kirk, but it seems over the pale for supposedly “family value” voters to vote for Kirk’s Rat opponent just because of that.

Name me ONE legitimate long-time Illinois Freeper that's voting for that mob-money-laundering crook Giannoulias over Mark Kirk because they don't like Kirk.

Name ONE.

And NO, voting for a third-party candidate is NOT a vote for the DemocRAT in the race.

20 posted on 10/09/2010 6:23:51 PM PDT by usconservative (When The Ballot Box No Longer Counts, The Ammunition Box Does. (What's In Your Ammo Box?))
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