Skip to comments.Automation Nation: Will Artificial Intelligence Take Our Jobs? (Video)
Posted on 10/30/2011 10:29:59 PM PDT by JerseyanExile
A debate on the future of the American economy and the role of intelligent computers and robots. Will rapid technological innovations aid American workers, or will it render large numbers of American workers obsolete?
(Excerpt) Read more at ideasinactiontv.com ...
Artificial Intelligence took over No-Bama’s Brain many years ago.
I think they should improve their new models.
Real intelligence is constantly destroying “jobs.” The question to ask is: why are Democrats so beholden to anachronistic and shrinking unions thai they keep in place laws and regulations that protect those unions and punish the independent, job-free worker?
In the end, there will only be two jobs in America. One for a dog and the other for a man.
The man’s job is to feed the dog. The dog’s job is to keep the man away from the computer.
I’m the man, you’re all hungry.
I’m more worried about what happens when AI gets advanced to the point that robots fancy themselves as superior to humans and suprass human brain power. Than being out fo work wont be an issue for us-we’ll have plenty of unpaid labor provided to us by machines whose AI got too advanced.
considering many people under 30 cannot do a simple percentage...
hand calculators can take American jobs. forget AI
on top of that, there are only about 140m jobs in the US... and almost 7 billion people on the planet
the odds are, a person in a 3rd world country will gladly take your job, if possible.
this is not a sellers market (workers selling labor)... this is a buyers market where Americans will lose if we allow free trade and open borders for anyone to compete for American jobs. the supply of potential labor will just crush labor prices
Conclusion of video discussion:
Automation has been and is doing two things: creating wealth, and taking jobs away from human beings.
This trend is continuing and accelerating. Machines are now capable of doing enough to take away quite a few of the “middle” jobs. The ones that are left are increasingly menial and low-paying, or high-end jobs that a machine can’t (yet) do. But every day, more of the middle jobs are getting eaten up. In the last 4 years, companies have increased their spending on human resources 2%, but increased their spending on software & technology between 20 and 30%.
This increase in automation is driving a growing widening gap between the poor and the rich, with some of the rich (who own the companies that are employing machines) becoming more and more fabulously wealthy as they are increasingly the beneficiaries of the wealth created by the machines. This is particularly true in the developed countries.
The people in the discussion seemed to conclude that the only possible remedy for this unbalancing of wealth is going to be a more progressive income tax.
Look, if someone can come from overseas, not speaking english, replace you today without loss of productivity, then you probably deserved to be fired.
i have conducted a couple of thousand interviews in my lifetime. for positions paying from average salaries to top level. i have run companies in the US and abroad. i can tell you for a FACT, US salaried personnel are easily replaced for 1/10th the price. Americans have no super powers. they have no amazing mental capacity (many times, quite the opposite).
to listen to globalists, such as yourself, is to invite the never ending horde of potential employees to flood the country.
is there an endless supply of work for these people? no. so what would be the result? the positions would go to the cheapest person willing and able to do the job. for career positions, such as doctors, lawyers, engineers, etc... all it would take to replace these people is a 10-20 year effort of training their replacements... and slowly move the jobs overseas, or bring the replacements into the country directly.
there is no magic. you hold no special qualifications. there is ALWAYS someone else willing and able to do your job... cheaper. especially when the economy is in the tank.
here’s a question, why send your kid to college? you think your kid is some special snowflake? hardly. actually, the specific act of sending the kid to college could result in undermining his/her ability to get ahead in a career. how so? unless you fully fund their education, they will be sitting across from someone like me looking for an entry level position, someday. they will also be holding $100-300k in college debt. this will require $50-75k/yr starting salary just to cover expenses. remember, as an employee, i’m looking at your kid as a 2.5 times base expense. so he/she would cost roughly $125-185k/yr to the company.
meanwhile, sitting right next to your kid... is a long line of other kids with equal education and experience. except these kids have no college debt. they were brought in by a body shop via an L-3 visa program and only cost $30-50k/yr, if that. the kid will see about $10k and will live in a group home with 4+ others. all of which is much better then where they are from. meanwhile, they are a straight expense to my company, so $50k/yr is a sweet deal
now... who do you think gets that all important, entry level job? it sure isn’t your kid. but that’s ok... your special snowflake will try harder at the next interview... until finally landing at starbucks. after 3 years slopping high priced coffee and muffins to the L-3 visa kids, your kid will be completely disenfranchised and start asking why bother. after all, starbucks isn’t paying anywhere near the $50k needed to cover the college debt... which forces him/her into bankruptcy, but the college debt still hangs over their head. unless they get lucky, there is no way out of that rabbit hole.
welcome to reality. this is what the go-go globalists have brought us.
7 billion people. 140 million jobs. what i described is inevitable... unless we protect the integrity of our country by ending visa programs and off/on/near-shoring efforts
The question is whether the segment of people who used to fill these jobs can be channeled towards other types of jobs or if we are facing a future where a large portion of people will have to be supported indefinitely because there won't be any place for them in the workworce.
In effect, we are doing that now with extending unemployment and other forms of government payments.
You are on the right track. You reject abstract theories and have little regard for abundance and low prices. You concern yourselves mainly with the fate of the producer. You wish to free him from foreign competition, that is, to reserve the domestic market for domestic industry.
We come to offer you a wonderful opportunity for your what shall we call it? Your theory? No, nothing is more deceptive than theory. Your doctrine? Your system? Your principle? But you dislike doctrines, you have a horror of systems, as for principles, you deny that there are any in political economy; therefore we shall call it your practice your practice without theory and without principle.
If we keep going the way we have been for the past several decades, your question will be valid. But -- and this is also a response to the "close the borders" crowd -- if we remove the heavy taxes, unproductive regulations and the government-caused shrinking dollar; we will find that the economy will spring back to life.
People have been worrying about the effects of free trade and automation for centuries, and it's wrong to think that it's somehow different this time. Man must work to survive and he will. If government only lets him.
Note that “minimum wage” means it is illegal to pay workers what some jobs are worth, and other regulations make it hard to hire. Given the need to do the job, and the encroaching prohibitions and restrictions on having humans do them, machines fill the gap.
I’d rather a human wash my dishes and sweep my floors, but a few hundred bucks for a dishwasher and Roomba are just so much easier than the gov’t paperwork & restrictions.
The great question though seems to be whether the advent of increasingly effective artificial intelligence is breaking down the traditional theories regarding automation and employment.
Machines are much better at repetitive, precise operations and they work 24/7 with only breaks for maintenance. Where we could funnel our less-ambitious siblings or children into a nice factory job or into the service industry, we are facing the permanent replacement of human labor in most and soon all sectors. We are even exploring robotics for infantry warfare - I mean, who could complain? No fear, no fatigue, no letters home.
The question about what we are going to do for all those IQs under a hundred (or 110 or 120) who don't have the gifts of artistic ability or sports skills or terrific looks or something else marketable has yet to be solved. It's uncomfortable but the question has to be asked and some answer found and soon.
Most of these operations used to require many young men and women to execute but not anymore.
As an artillery designer, I oversaw the development of an automated artillery system that didn't require any people at all except to pass ammunition to it (I was never funded for an ammunition magazining system) and it achieved very fast response times and unbelievable accuracy. It also never got tired, never got sick and never got scared.
We need to recognize that we are on the cusp of the next developmental revolution and people will need to be able to find their own new directions.
What you propose would, more than anything else, kill American business. There are simply not enough skilled workers to fill the positions that need to be filled. I don’t see why businesses shouldn’t be able to hire folks who are willing to come to America to make a living and work for them.
As for global competition, there are things like medical tourism. People will go where they can get the best deal for their money. Unless you are willing to curtail american freedom to travel and conduct business abroad, then you are going to deal with foreign competition.
I believe the American worker can and will be competitive with anyone. I don’t believe that he needs a tariff which will stifle American businesses more than anything else, and reward uncompetitive union firms with our dollars.
America is not doing all she can do to bring about a competitive business environment. It makes no sense to complain about being uncompetitive, while at the same time, a minority of states are right to work. Fix the red tape, fix the bloated bureaucracy, and you’ll see what the American worker is capable. That is what is killing America right now.
Nationalism is going to come back with a vengeance.
Actually, it is different this time.
Technology changes things.
Always before, there were jobs people could go to. For the first time in human history, we're beginning to face a situation where technology can begin to handle so many different jobs that the prospects for people are starting to look grim.
This will do two things:
First, it will create more wealth, without people having to work for it. That part is good.
But it will also leave people unemployed. That part is bad.
Always before, the right answer to unemployment has been, "Get off your butt and go get a job."
But what if the jobs simply do not exist, because it's cheaper to hire a machine?
In that case, we may be forced into a new, more socialist society.
really? you think quoting a French liberal somehow gives you credence or undermines my point?
I have made these decisions myself. I have hired people to work 60 hrs/wk for an average of $500/month, overseas. domestically, I have hired the contract agencies instead of the American kid, for far less then the employee. I have friends that have bought homes and managed their own L-3s by running the group home.
this is not fanciful. this is fact. in 2000 when billy-bob passed the H1-b visa bill, there were 5m americans in the US. as of last year when last saw the stat, the number was down to 1.5m Americans. the number of visas held are in the millions and the number of jobs off-shored are also most likely in the millions. I was speaking with a guy last week who manages a plant in shezshing (sp?) china. they manufacture smart phones. how many at that location? he said they have 300,000 working in that city. that’s just one company
I can only tell you how it is now. this is not conjecture. explain why anyone would ever hire a person for more the bare wages when there is an endless supply of workers able to be trained
“there were 5m americans in the US. as of last year when last saw the stat, the number was down to 1.5m Americans”
that was supposed to say “5m Americans in the US IT sector” and “down to 1.5m Americans in the IT sector”
sorry ‘bout that
read post #23
if you want American’s to compete more efficiently, then it can be done by improving the people we have, not by undermining them and their families by bringing in cheaper replacements from whatever third world country can provide labor.
funny how these globalists never demand improved American employees
holding Americans to higher standards should definitely be done. going after the schools and demanding they answer for their inability to provide quality employees should be the attack by employers. unfortunately, business is being disingenuous.
using the IT sector as an example, there were 5m Americans in the industry in 2000. the claims were that there were not enough people in the US with the skills needed to do the job. if that were the case, you would expect those 5m people would continue being employed and the visas would work along side them.
unfortunately, that wasn’t even close to the truth. instead, the visas were used to bring people into the US, train up, and ship home to staff shops in other countries. exactly why is there any need for visas in the IT sector these days, as the number of Americans in the IT sector dropped to 1.5m... that implies 3.5m people are available, either immediately or after a short period of training, to staff any open positions new visas are supposed to cover.
It already has.
The comming age is the age of composits.
That will be all automation a victory will belong to the nation which domiciles the PROFITS.
You are the first person I’ve ever heard call Bastiat a “liberal”, in the modern sense. There are good arguments for restricting trade and immigration, nobody here seems to be making them.
you do know the modern liberal is really a progressive, right? that same person usually also promotes globalism / free trade to help the people of other countries, instead of his/her own
(a bit bleary eyed on the iPad first thing in the morning)
what I am saying should be restricted is the flooding of our market with cheap labor (or the push to move those jobs out of the US). doing has, and will continue to crush the ability for Americans to earn a living. not everyone can be a lawyer. we need to think of these positions as valuable resources we’re voluntarily throwing away.
if this trend continues, civil unrest is sure to follow
when I’m running a company, I push to balance financial with the desire to keep the people motivated. in my field, motivation usually means financial coupled with morale. ruthlessly pursuing the cheapest labor will not improve morale. why do I care about morale? because todays junior dev is tomorrows senior... and the future products will be coming from them. balance all the pieces right and they will work in unison to produce product to rival, if not surpass, the leaders in the field
beyond the individual company, the well being/ motivation of the labor pool is vital to insure a healthy crop from which to pick future employees. for DoD, this is crucial. without a vibrant field in the IT/engineering sector to choose from, tomorrows defense products will be at risk... of being developed by our enemies
this is a buyers market where Americans will lose if we allow free trade and open borders for anyone to compete for American jobs.
I didn't notice a </sarc> tag.
You have been here for a over a decade but you have the rhetoric of an OWS hippie that signed on last night. Apparently this forum has not been the least bit instructional or inspirational to you.
First off, the universal claim that this is a "buyers market" is not true for my field where clearly it is a sellers' market as I am pounded daily by many opportunities. So it is better to say that in many market segments, its a buyer's market.
There is no such thing as an "American Job", in the sense that only Americans are worthy enough and are entitled to perform the gig. We once thought that the US Presidency was uniquely and Constitutionally an "American Job" but we have recently discovered that it too can be taken by an illegal alien foreigner.
It is your kind of thinking and sentiment taken to Washington DC that is actually causing this problem and keeping Americans perpetually unemployed. You killed the Golden Goose. It is your fault.
Let us assume that everything you say is true (BTW, its not "almost" seven billion, it "is" seven billion). You admit in an offhand way that American workers essentially are practically interchangeable with illiterate, lazy, incompetent, uninspired and often criminal third worlders. I don't think even the union representatives speak of their members in such derogatory terms. Nonetheless, these fairly worthless individuals are entitled to a bogus category of "American Jobs" as if tightening a screw or delivering a package is somehow uniquely an American task.
Maybe your idea of an "American Job" is similar in every way to a regular job performed by people around the world since the beginning of time - except that the entitled "American Worker" is guaranteed to be well over compensated and allowed incredible latitude in delivering a self-defined quality of service.
Your complaint with "free trade" presupposes that only the US is permitted to export any product and no products are allowed to be imported into the US. That is crazy, and the US has devolved sufficiently that the rest of the world can seriously consider a future life without the US market.
On the other hand, Free Trade is what its name implies (in theory): Individuals, irrespective of locality, can enjoy a relatively unimpeded commercial transaction. If better quality labor and a much reduced price and reliability can be found somewhere other than the united States, then that person should be able to contract that labor without the government intervening.
You obviously despise the Free Market and wish to grant the US Government regulatory powers to prevent otherwise lawful and mutually beneficial trade.
I don't plan to work the rest of my life and I would love to be able to retire comfortably on my investments. This requires me, particularly in a highly inflationary environment, to invest in endeavors that reliably multiply my savings. You have already authorized the government to force me to either pay way over market for worthless labor, automate or flee this predatory government. The first option is clearly contrary to my goals and therefore is not even in consideration.
So basically, you are a greedy thief who wants to use the police powers of the government to force me to either not invest, or to take a haircut so you can be overcompensated and live comfortably off my previous labors. When you and the US government are in league to steal from me, then it is folly to be patriotic to despots and community of thieves. I, and every other freedom loving investor need to seriously consider the fact that hoodlums have taken over this great experiment in Freedom and Liberty and transformed it into a corrupt kleptocracy.
If you want an "American Job" you will need to present to the angel investor (euphemism for "rich person") a reason why he shouldn't find cheaper labor and more favorable business climate elsewhere, or why she shouldn't pour all kinds of money into machinery and software that won't come to work late, stoned, with an attitude, and demanding outrageous compensation with the underlying threat of lawsuit, strike or violence.
The recipe for creating "American Jobs" is to present a capable and affordable workforce in a low drag regulatory and tax environment. Our schools have eliminated the former possibility by at least two generations, and the latter is impossible for as long as people who think like you have the right to vote.
And that is the reason why my phone will continually ring by clients looking for LOB software that will help them eliminate jobs and streamline their businesses. The new "American Job" is one that is found in the "Profit Center" not in the "Cost Center".
all you one-world-government people really need to stop trying to promote yourself as pro-America. at no point in time does it help America or its children to have its companies use labor from dirt poor third world countries.
i am all for competing against products produced in foreign countries... so long as there are tariffs in place devalue using those third world countries as proxy slave production sites.
if we’re going to say it’s ok to produce goods overseas... because it’s only ‘fair’... then why stop there? why am i forced to pay taxes in the US when there are cheaper tax locations overseas? (and no, you cannot just move, as the US demands its tax payments even if you are living year round in another country)
if my kids are forced to live here and work 60% of their lives, currently, to support this socialistic crap... then the least i demand is the ability for myself and my family to be able to produce in an environment without having to compete with slaves or imported individuals with no educational debt and living in the country temporarily.
how would you like your crow?