Posted on 07/08/2012 3:33:41 PM PDT by djone
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger. Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.
*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.
*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.
(Excerpt) Read more at townhall.com ...
God is simply using him as a tool.
It isn't a vote for anyone else.
Well, I have to say that I do believe that, but I have some apprehension, I can’t lie about that.
Not only does the Devil appear to be winning at this time, he is wrecking face.
Jesus Christ, please help us.
In fact, I think more Obama voters will be 'nonvoters' then former McCain voters.
So, overall, the fact remains, McCain voters aren't switching to Obama, but many Obama voters are going to vote GOP.
We don’t have the internal polls that Romney & Obama have so it’s best, over the next several weeks, to watch which states they go to, and where they are spending their money.
Right now Obama is flooding Iowa with over five million dollars in TV & radio money & yet he is still running behind Romney by several points. I believe he beat McCain by 10 points there in 2008.
Read the Book of Revelation-we win!
Yes. Arithmetic is funny that way. Elections are a zero-sum game.
Wrong -- feelings such as anger and frustration are funny in how they pervert arithmetic.
And when Dumb says "election sare a zero-sum game," he's partly grasping, but not fully, the reality that in the voting booth, it is materially and mathematically impossible to vote "against" anything; you may only cast a ballot FOR something, even when it comes to propositions. You don't vote "against" a proposition -- you vote FOR passing it, or you vote FOR nixing it. As for candidates, you cannot vote "against" a candidate; you can only vote FOR a different candidate to prevent the candidate you dislike from winning. Not quite a "zero sum game," but Dumb is apparently built too low to the ground to catch that particular ball.
Dumb, mathematically and materially, there is only ONE WAY you can vote for Obama, and that is to mark his name on your ballot. Arithmetic is very straightforward that way.
What's "funny" is overhearing one Democrat telling another, "I'm voting third party this time -- screw Obama," and his pal says, "That's the same as a vote for Romney!" -- and then coming on here to see folks like Dumb saying that this poor stupid bastard Democrat doesn't even know he's voting for Obama anyway because "arithmetic is funny that way."
But actually, feelings and emotions like anger and frustration are "funny" in how they provoke people to bastardize plain arithmetic.
... and his mandate was thus so weak -- a full 57% of the popular vote opposed him -- that he got his ass kicked in the mid terms and we had the Republican Revolution. Republicans would probably never have been able to storm Congress if Clinton had gotten a majority or if HWB had been re-elected.
Cyber, Dumb is full of crap when it comes to his pet theories and fuzzy math with regard to what a third party vote is worth. His handle is extremely appropriate. I am going to vote third party not because I think the candidate I vote for will win, but because I know it will contribute to decreasing the popular vote mandate of the bastard I know WILL win, Obama or Romney. Voting to deny a popular mandate for whichever bastard it ends up being, is the only way I can vote at the top of the ticket in a way that will help the conservaties I'll be voting for down-ticket.
And Dumbo, because he is angry and frustrated, continues to foment the mathematical fallacy that A vote for a 3rd party (or no vote at all) is a vote for obozo. It is Dumbo's version of pure entitlement thinking -- he thinks Romney is entitled to any conservative's vote and that not voting for him "is a vote for Obama" EXACTLY the same way that politicians think that holding to the same budget as last year rather than increasing it as scheduled, is a "budget cut."
Again, here is what you KNOW is true: Mathematically and materially, there is only ONE WAY for you to vote for Obama, and that is to mark his name on your ballot.
There is also only ONE WAY to vote for government tyranny -- and a whole helluva lot of good but frightened conservatives are on the verge of doing it.
Cripes. You've got your election math scrambled six ways to Sunday.
"Voting against" and "half votes" are both sophistries.
For heaven's sake, get a grip and lose the emotion-fueled mathematical rationalizing in order to demonize those who refuse to vote the same as you.
There's only one way to vote for a candidate, and that's to mark his name on your ballot; there's only one way to vote for authoritarian tyranny, and that is to vote for a politician who promotes it.
It is SIMPLE ARITHMETIC.
... based on guesses and assumptions as to what individuals who did one thing last time, may or may not do this time.
Too smart by half -- "the Stupid Party" way.
Why don't you three guys just admit that what you are really trying to do is to use statistics -- next door neighbors to "lies" and "damned lies" -- to distort and pervert plain math with regard to voter intent, in order to demonize those of us who refuse vote for making the Republican party as liberal as the Democrat party.
You can't even admit that to yourselves -- you're too busy smirking and sneering. An when Romney either loses or if he wins and goes on to destroy our freedoms under the Republican banner, you so-smart "superior" geeks will still be painfully obtuse. Same ol' same ol.
Lighten up, Francis.
>>Dumb, mathematically and materially, there is only ONE WAY you can vote for Obama, and that is to mark his name on your ballot. Arithmetic is very straightforward that way.<<
Wrong. You guys can whine and kick your fee and hold your breath until you turn blue.
Picture an electorate of 4 people. 2 vote for obama, 1 for Romney, 1 3rd party. Who wins the election? What would have happened had the one voter not thrown a temper tantrum?
And of course making fun of my name is all you have — ad hominem is the last resort of the feeble minded — and there are clearly many of you.
You can justify it all you want with YOUR lack of math skills (you people are even too slow to know what a zero sum game is —I give you all too much credit). If obozo wins and you vote 3rd party it is YOUR fault — and you go to the grave iwth the results of an obozo 3nd term.
Chill.
You are quite a confused little person. I was simply talking about the logic of what Wayne Allen Root was saying and applying it to the situation mathematically. I was not advocating one thing or the other. I am sorry that your hatred and your anger has you in a situation where you cannot even follow logic without reading something sinister into it.
The fact remains that a McCain vote who stays home this time is one thing, and a McCain vote that switches to Obama is quite another mathematically.
I agree with the author that few if any McCain voters will vote Obama. I do think many will not vote for either. I was simply pointing out those are different results.
T
hat is just math. No advocacy here. Chill chill chill.
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