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Buy Intrade shares on Romney? [Vanity]
Oct 29,2012 | me

Posted on 10/28/2012 8:01:55 AM PDT by expat1000

A Romney win is at 36% at Intrade. If I buy 100 shares for $360 and he wins, I get back $1,000, right?

Any reason not to do that?


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 10/28/2012 8:01:59 AM PDT by expat1000
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To: expat1000

I would do it.


2 posted on 10/28/2012 8:03:07 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: expat1000

The only reason not to - if he loses, you lose it all. It’s up to you if that’s a risk or not. :)


3 posted on 10/28/2012 8:04:08 AM PDT by fred4prez
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To: Perdogg

Only problem w/ Intrade is you have to wire your funds offshore to set up an account, but the ROI on this bet looks worth it.


4 posted on 10/28/2012 8:05:53 AM PDT by pingman (Step right up and place yer' bets!)
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To: expat1000

If you are an American (which may not be the case based on your handle), it would be technically against the law to do so.

Intrade is considered internet based gambling and thus is forbidden to US Citizens

Many thousands do it regardless but if one fine day the Goverment decides to crack down, Intrade will not hesitate ONE MINUTE to share all the US Citizen names


5 posted on 10/28/2012 8:06:47 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: expat1000

If you bet on Obama, at least you will have some money to pay your higher taxes if he wins. It’s called a “hedge”.


6 posted on 10/28/2012 8:07:11 AM PDT by BigBobber
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To: pingman

I would if I lived in Europe or somewhere else.

Big time.

Somebody is seriously buying up Obama shares with offshore money (imo) to attempt to influence the election.

It’s a way for unAmerican money to attempt to influence the election.

For real. Right now is a (huge) opportunity to make some money.


7 posted on 10/28/2012 8:09:32 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (America doesn't need any new laws. America needs freedom!)
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To: Perdogg

>>I would do it.

I just checked on how to sign up (Yes, I should have done that first).

Living overseas, I don’t think I can meet their requirements for documentation such as proof of residence, unless I ask a buddy to do it for me. I have to think about that one.

Yes at 3 - 1 odds, I would definitely go for it - no question if that is all there is to it - get back $1,000 less some handling fees. Probably would at 50-50 odds.


8 posted on 10/28/2012 8:10:02 AM PDT by expat1000
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To: expat1000

I’m thinking of doing the same.


9 posted on 10/28/2012 8:10:52 AM PDT by CPT Clay (Follow me on Twitter @Clay N TX)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

>> Intrade is considered internet based gambling and thus is forbidden to US Citizens.

Ah. Thanks. I read through the sign up blurb pretty carefully, and don’t think they even mention that there.


10 posted on 10/28/2012 8:13:48 AM PDT by expat1000
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To: expat1000
You should buy. It's underpriced. Doesn't mean you'll win ... but at this point it should be priced at .85 for Romney.

Keep in mind you have to either wire or send a cashier's check to Intrade - so get going now - it may be a day or more before you can actually invest your money, and the media narrative distorting the price can't hold out for much longer, now that's it come to "R might win the popular, but O will still win" ... that's the media's last stand. It will break next week.

This price, by the way, is exactly why Intrade is not an efficient market and can't be used to predict political campaigns. Remember that only a week or so ago did Europeans have any idea it was even a race.

I once believed the idea that since people were laying down their money, it wold be more accurate. But other reasons overwhelm that in certain bets, politics being a a major example.

  1. Uneducated investors (meaning not fully aware of the facts)
  2. People investing fun money, not like investing in the market for retirement.
  3. Gamblers taken as a whole aren't the smartest most well informed people in the world. (Some are - but as a group, no.)
  4. The market is too small
So Intrade is great for taking advantage of an inefficient market. Here at FR we have insider information not available to the rest of the investors, 95% of whom are listening to media and media polls, and don't know they can't trust that information.

Go for it, Martha Stweart, this type of insider trading is quite legal :-)

11 posted on 10/28/2012 8:17:01 AM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: BigBobber

Exactly! That’s the reason I never bet on my beloved Broncos. If they lose, I’m dammm well gonna get paid for it. I’ll happily lose money by betting on B-HO!


12 posted on 10/28/2012 8:18:07 AM PDT by LittleBillyInfidel (This tagline has been formatted to fit the screen. Some content has been edited.)
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To: HannibalHamlinJr
PS, consider making 2 trades, one or Presidnet, one for 290 or 300 EV.

Set it up such that whatever money you are willing to put down, you split that money so that if Romney wins, but doesn't get 290 or 300, you'd only lose (on the EV bet) half your winnings (from the President bet)

Not sure what 290 / 300 odds are, but whatever they are, they are wrong, and if you look at the return on those bets - it's probably sereislee hugh.

In this case, were Romney to lose, you lose the same amount of money, and if he wins but doesn't take the EVs, you still win half your money.

But the concepts the media is not acknowledging that point to a Romney victory point to a decidely lopsided victory. (Even w/o PA and MI, if Romney wins all the states easier than that plus 1 EV in Maine - that's 302 EVs. Hedge @ 290 if you want for a fluke in Nevada, IA, NH etc. CO seems to be in the bag now for RR.

13 posted on 10/28/2012 8:25:26 AM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: expat1000; Perdogg; LS; nhwingut; tatown; Ravi; ConservativeGuy; HamiltonJay; SoFloFreeper; ...

They dont! And that is what annoys me no end about Intrade.

They have generic language “follow the laws of your country”. They are happy to take US citizens on, fully knowing that it is against the law for US Citizens to use US funds for internet gambling.

They are no different than those Internet Poker guys who took US citizens as customers and eventually got sued (one of them recently settled)

BTW, since Intrade makes you send in copies of your ID documentation, you can bet your last dollar (pun and irony intended) that the day the DOJ sends them a simple form letter asking for information on US Citizens who have used Intrade, the Intrade guys will send a full binder back to the DOJ using FedEx Priority Overnight with 10 AM guaranteed delivery, to show how much they are “cooperating with the US Govt and the DOJ”. They will also point to the fact that you, as a user, clicked on the agreement when you signed up that affirmed that you were not violating the laws of your country

Stay away!

Also, manipulation is rife, especially in this election. Too easy for overseas interests to influence it to influence the election coverage, as many MSM types (as well as RCP itself, reports on Intrade

It is my bet to you that Intrade will lose a lot of credibility after this election


14 posted on 10/28/2012 8:25:42 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

Thanks, everyone. I want to do it.

I have a Canadian buddy that would do this for me but have to check if it is legal for him.


15 posted on 10/28/2012 8:25:45 AM PDT by expat1000
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

I said: “one or Presidnet”

I meant “one FOR President”


16 posted on 10/28/2012 8:28:12 AM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: pingman
Only problem w/ Intrade is you have to wire your funds offshore to set up an account, but the ROI on this bet looks worth it.

Trading here seems to bypass that problem-

http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/faq.html

Current market prices-

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_quotes.html
17 posted on 10/28/2012 8:31:04 AM PDT by WackySam (Obama got Osama just like Nixon landed on the moon.)
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To: expat1000

It does not look to me as if you could create an account and submit all the documentation and create an offshore account before the election. I just started the process and gave up.


18 posted on 10/28/2012 8:31:21 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the psychopath.)
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To: expat1000

What’s the vig? How does Intrade make money off of this?


19 posted on 10/28/2012 8:35:34 AM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin (Superciliousness is the essence of Obama)
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin

Check the site.


20 posted on 10/28/2012 8:41:03 AM PDT by expat1000
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To: SoftwareEngineer
What??? I thought America was the land of the Free.


21 posted on 10/28/2012 8:41:56 AM PDT by Orange1998
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To: expat1000

What happens at a racetrack when an unknown bettor plops down say, a hundred grand or so - or more, on a bet for someone? What happens?, tell me....

One would think that odds will get shifted to cover a loss should they have to pay off this debt, right?

Suppose someone like SOROS or of his ilk places millions of dollars worth of bets?

If you look at it, it’s a cheap way to get some favorable odds press, and you don’t even have to go through the motions of conducting some fake-assed poll...


22 posted on 10/28/2012 9:02:37 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: expat1000

Check the fine print. A few years back I starting betting on a sport bet site (off shore). I won pretty big. Collecting was hard and they threw all kinds of fees at me. After I won $1,500.00 they sent me a check 6 months later for $923.00


23 posted on 10/28/2012 9:13:51 AM PDT by IC Ken
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To: expat1000
There is a legal betting site for US bettors at:
http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/

They post the current odds at:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.html

24 posted on 10/28/2012 9:33:48 AM PDT by preacher (Communism has only killed 100 million people: Let's give it another chance!)
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin

It looks like intrade only makes money by charging a simple $5 a month unlike fairbet that charges by collecting 5% on any winning bets.

So if you only have $40 in your intrade account in any month, and only bet that $40, they collect $5 which would be 1/8 of the amount wagered. But if you write a $22,000 check to set up your account, intrade would still only charge $5 to have that amount in your account. I think.

So like if you had funded an intrade account in early September, and then placed your bet the last week of September (just before the famous October 3 debate) —and held that position till a couple days after the debate, and cashed out, you’d have made over 50% on your wager winnings.

And if you’d have held your September position when wagering was $22,Romney / $78Obama ,—and should Romney win, you shall have parleyed that $22,000 in to $100,000.

In any case it’s kind of late to get in on anything just 9 days before Oct 6, if you are an American citizen. It takes 10 days for a personal check to clear. They only take checks and not credit cards or paypal to set up your account to make wagers.


25 posted on 10/28/2012 9:53:31 AM PDT by wiseBRILLIANTgenius
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To: SoftwareEngineer

If you are an American (which may not be the case based on your handle), it would be technically against the law to do so.

Intrade is considered internet based gambling and thus is forbidden to US Citizens
*************************************
NEGATIVE. Intrade is different as the house does not set the odds ,, all wagers are between members.. That is why Intrade accepts US based accounts.


26 posted on 10/28/2012 10:27:28 AM PDT by Neidermeyer
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