Posted on 10/28/2012 8:01:55 AM PDT by expat1000
A Romney win is at 36% at Intrade. If I buy 100 shares for $360 and he wins, I get back $1,000, right?
Any reason not to do that?
I would do it.
The only reason not to - if he loses, you lose it all. It’s up to you if that’s a risk or not. :)
Only problem w/ Intrade is you have to wire your funds offshore to set up an account, but the ROI on this bet looks worth it.
If you are an American (which may not be the case based on your handle), it would be technically against the law to do so.
Intrade is considered internet based gambling and thus is forbidden to US Citizens
Many thousands do it regardless but if one fine day the Goverment decides to crack down, Intrade will not hesitate ONE MINUTE to share all the US Citizen names
If you bet on Obama, at least you will have some money to pay your higher taxes if he wins. It’s called a “hedge”.
I would if I lived in Europe or somewhere else.
Big time.
Somebody is seriously buying up Obama shares with offshore money (imo) to attempt to influence the election.
It’s a way for unAmerican money to attempt to influence the election.
For real. Right now is a (huge) opportunity to make some money.
>>I would do it.
I just checked on how to sign up (Yes, I should have done that first).
Living overseas, I don’t think I can meet their requirements for documentation such as proof of residence, unless I ask a buddy to do it for me. I have to think about that one.
Yes at 3 - 1 odds, I would definitely go for it - no question if that is all there is to it - get back $1,000 less some handling fees. Probably would at 50-50 odds.
I’m thinking of doing the same.
>> Intrade is considered internet based gambling and thus is forbidden to US Citizens.
Ah. Thanks. I read through the sign up blurb pretty carefully, and don’t think they even mention that there.
Keep in mind you have to either wire or send a cashier's check to Intrade - so get going now - it may be a day or more before you can actually invest your money, and the media narrative distorting the price can't hold out for much longer, now that's it come to "R might win the popular, but O will still win" ... that's the media's last stand. It will break next week.
This price, by the way, is exactly why Intrade is not an efficient market and can't be used to predict political campaigns. Remember that only a week or so ago did Europeans have any idea it was even a race.
I once believed the idea that since people were laying down their money, it wold be more accurate. But other reasons overwhelm that in certain bets, politics being a a major example.
Go for it, Martha Stweart, this type of insider trading is quite legal :-)
Exactly! That’s the reason I never bet on my beloved Broncos. If they lose, I’m dammm well gonna get paid for it. I’ll happily lose money by betting on B-HO!
Set it up such that whatever money you are willing to put down, you split that money so that if Romney wins, but doesn't get 290 or 300, you'd only lose (on the EV bet) half your winnings (from the President bet)
Not sure what 290 / 300 odds are, but whatever they are, they are wrong, and if you look at the return on those bets - it's probably sereislee hugh.
In this case, were Romney to lose, you lose the same amount of money, and if he wins but doesn't take the EVs, you still win half your money.
But the concepts the media is not acknowledging that point to a Romney victory point to a decidely lopsided victory. (Even w/o PA and MI, if Romney wins all the states easier than that plus 1 EV in Maine - that's 302 EVs. Hedge @ 290 if you want for a fluke in Nevada, IA, NH etc. CO seems to be in the bag now for RR.
They dont! And that is what annoys me no end about Intrade.
They have generic language “follow the laws of your country”. They are happy to take US citizens on, fully knowing that it is against the law for US Citizens to use US funds for internet gambling.
They are no different than those Internet Poker guys who took US citizens as customers and eventually got sued (one of them recently settled)
BTW, since Intrade makes you send in copies of your ID documentation, you can bet your last dollar (pun and irony intended) that the day the DOJ sends them a simple form letter asking for information on US Citizens who have used Intrade, the Intrade guys will send a full binder back to the DOJ using FedEx Priority Overnight with 10 AM guaranteed delivery, to show how much they are “cooperating with the US Govt and the DOJ”. They will also point to the fact that you, as a user, clicked on the agreement when you signed up that affirmed that you were not violating the laws of your country
Stay away!
Also, manipulation is rife, especially in this election. Too easy for overseas interests to influence it to influence the election coverage, as many MSM types (as well as RCP itself, reports on Intrade
It is my bet to you that Intrade will lose a lot of credibility after this election
Thanks, everyone. I want to do it.
I have a Canadian buddy that would do this for me but have to check if it is legal for him.
I said: “one or Presidnet”
I meant “one FOR President”
It does not look to me as if you could create an account and submit all the documentation and create an offshore account before the election. I just started the process and gave up.
What’s the vig? How does Intrade make money off of this?
Check the site.
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