Posted on 10/11/2013 2:46:21 PM PDT by EveningStar
The comparison of the asteroid’s orbital path to that of the Lunar bound spaecraft is false. The spaecraft needs to do course corrections for a variety of reasons unrelated to the ability to accurately predict orbital paths of a relatively more inert body such as an asteroid. The Earth and the field of its significant gravitational influence upon an asteroid are far far greater than the aiming points for cis-Lunar trajectory for a spacecraft.
Knock yourself out.
It might be a planet killer if it hit near a Super Volcano.
Call me if you find an Iron that size or larger that is a threat.
IT’S GEORGE BUSH’S FAULT!
Paging Bruce Willis...
Fair enough. So what your saying is that a spacecraft is venting things, radiating heat, etc. and all those things make minute course-corrections necessary to hit to proper orbital trajectory for attaining lunar orbit? OK. I can understand that. Thanks!
I still find it hard to believe that the complex gravitiational influences of all the bodies of the solar system make this predictable enough to call a collision 800 years out.
Note, the article did not say there would be a collison with the Earth. The article only said there was a 0.03 percent chance of collision or double the normal odds of a collision in any given year. In other words, the article said there was an estimated 1 chance in a thousand such encounters that this asteroid would collide with the Earth on that date. The estimate reflects the uncertainties of calculating the orbital path out to that distant date given potential changes in the Sun’s luminosity influencing the orbital path and an assotment of other variations in the Solar System’s other gravitaitonal influences.
Nonetheless, relatively inert masses of significant sizes can have their orbital paths extrapolated into the future with some amazing degrees of accuracy, absent close encounters which can introduce unforseen amounts of influences.
Plugged in these numbers, used 90 degrees (straight in):
Transient Crater Diameter: 11.2 km ( = 6.97 miles )
Transient Crater Depth: 3.97 km ( = 2.46 miles )
Final Crater Diameter: 15.5 km ( = 9.59 miles )
Final Crater Depth: 675 meters ( = 2210 feet )
The crater formed is a complex crater.
The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 1.56 km^3 ( = 0.374 miles^3 )
Roughly half the melt remains in the crater, where its average thickness is 15.8 meters ( = 51.7 feet ).
I just redid the calcs and it is .03% so relax.
Note they says 44.8 x 10^9 Tons not an even number? odd
GLOBAL WARMING10
44.8 x 10^9 is 4,480 megatons, I believe. By contrast, “Czar Bomba” the largest H-bomb ever detonated, was up to 58 megatons. Puts the nuclear arms race into perspective, eh?
oops, 44,800 mt.
>> 44,800 megatonnes of TNT
Ugh... large numbers and units of measure. I’ll take a stab...
tonne: 1000 kilograms
kilogram: approximately 2.2 pounds
tonne: ~2200 lbs
mega: enormous, huge, 10^6, ~1,000,000
megatonne: ~2,200,000,000 lbs
44,800 megatonnes: 98,560,000,000,000 lbs
peta: 10^15
Or approximately 0.1 petapounds of TNT which doesn’t sound as ominous
quadrillion: 10^15, peta
Or approximately 0.1 quadrillion pounds of TNT which does
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