Posted on 01/09/2014 3:45:46 PM PST by Kevmo
The Peak Oil Crisis: Cold Fusion Moves East January 7, 2014 5:44 PM 23 Comments By Tom Whipple
Many of us believe that life on this planet is in a lot of trouble. The climate is becoming unstable; there are too many people; oceans are dying, sea levels are rising; and water, food, clean air, and minerals are coming into short supply. For many, the economy refuses to grow fast enough to maintain living standards.
Although appreciated by only a handful, the evidence continues to build that, unless we have reached some kind of a tipping point, there may be a way out of our mounting problems. A few minutes’ reflection should be enough to convince most that a source of unlimited clean, cheap energy just could reverse global warming, provide unlimited water, food, and a better life for all.
While there may be sources of clean cheap energy that as yet we have no idea exist in this universe, for the present, cold fusion or the preferred term Low Energy Nuclear Reactions (LENR) looks like the only solution currently extant with the potential to save us. It may not be a stretch to say that either we develop and put into widespread use this technology or it is “game over” for life as we know it.
For the last 25 years, the U.S. government, at the urging of its scientific advisors who unfortunately had, and in some cases still have, axes to grind on the LENR issue, has been denying that the “cold fusion;” or LENR phenomenon, actually exists. According to the government, the anomalous heat that so many have been reporting on since 1989 is only experimental errors or scientific fraud or even wishful thinking. When the U.S. government says there is no such thing as “cold fusion” then naturally most other governments and the mainstream media with minor exceptions say the same.
This position may be changing however. While a few scientists at NASA have been saying that the LENR phenomenon is real for some time, the Department of Energy which reigns supreme in these matters remains pretty firm in its denial despite occasional reviews. Recently, however, we may have seen the beginnings of change when a component of DOE which funds exotic energy R&D efforts said it would entertain proposals to fund LENR experiments. Now this may simply be a case of the right hand not knowing what the left hand is doing, but it would be nice to believe that at least somewhere in DOE, a few are coming to their senses,
So where are we on this revolutionary and likely disruptive technology? There are dozens of independent laboratories around the world experimenting with low energy nuclear reactions at the lab bench scale, but only three or four saying, and in some cases demonstrating, that they have devices producing enough energy that commercially useful products should be available soon.
Readers of this column know by now that there is a small but devoted blogosphere out there in cyberspace that not only fervently believes that cold fusion is real and someday will save humanity, but follows and comments on developments daily.
For several years, interest has focused on the Italian inventor Andrea Rossi and his E-Cat nuclear device, which many still consider a scam despite numerous validations. Nearly a year ago, Rossi told his cyber space followers that he had partnered with a well-healed American firm that was helping him develop a commercial product. Until last week Rossi’s American partner was a well-kept secret with speculation focusing on industrial giants such as GE or United Technologies who have much to gain if LENR ever becomes a commercial product replacing combustion of fossil fuels as the principal source of heat in the world.
Last week a hint leaked out when one of Rossi’s associates noted in his biography that he was consulting for an obscure hedge fund called Cherokee Investment Partners LLC, located in Raleigh, North Carolina. The blogosphere jumped on this clue and within days enough information about Cherokee and its new subsidiary, Industrial Heat LLC, was brought to light to conclude that this organization is indeed Rossi’s new American partner in the development of LENR. Cherokee, which has a capitalization of circa $2 billion and has invested $11.5 in the E-Cat project, has a record of investing in cleaning up polluted properties and funding renewable energy projects.
The most interesting feature of last week’s revelations was that the CEO of Cherokee seems to have relationships with Chinese firms, and recently signed an agreement to setup some sort of facility in China’s Baoding Industrial Development Zone which specializes in developing new forms of energy such as wind and solar. Although Thomas Darden, Cherokee’s CEO, will say nothing about the agreement; he acknowledges talking about Industrial Heat LLC with the Chinese. In discussing the meeting in China, a Chinese web leaves little doubt that nickel-based LENR was discussed and that representatives of the highest levels of Chinese government planning attended the meeting.
Perhaps of even more interest than the Rossi-Cherokee-China disclosure was the announcement by Brillouin Energy, who claim to have the best understanding of the LENR phenomenon, that they have signed a multimillion dollar licensing agreement with an unidentified South Korean firm. Under the agreement, Brillouin would give the Koreans the plans for its “hot tube” steam generating boiler which has been under development at SRI’s labs in California. The deal would allow the Koreans to engineer and build prototypes of Brillouin’s boiler which is intended to provide steam for electricity generation. Brillouin hopes a prototype will be functioning before the end of the year.
If the Chinese and South Koreans latch onto LENR, it will make little difference what the US government, nay-saying physicists, or fossil fuel lobbyists and their friends in the Congress say about the technology — it will come.
Pons-Fleischmann was almost 25 years ago now.
Where are the reactors?
LENR is a scientific enquiry with 14000 replications. Since when did that become a “total fallacy”???
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Peak oil is certainly probable. It’s up to you to prove it to be fallacious, but the evidence is loading up against you.
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=peak+oil+documentary&sm=3
Where are the reactors?
***Thank you so much for your response.
asked & answered
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The author says that institutional interests that apparently outweigh the world’s access to abundant cheap energy have prevented the U.S. government and U.S. corporations from investing in a promising new approach to energy production. Asian companies seem to be taking up the slack.
***I would say that it was “institutional interests” that outweigh the access to RESEARCH into something that would obviously give the “world access to abundant cheap energy”. Those interests are the guys who were pulling big paychecks to deliver us zero results on controlled hot fusion.
Should we be worried, or should we be glad that energy will soon be as cheap as computer processing power — even if, like computer processing power, it comes from Asia?
***I’m not sure whether we should be worried. But it can’t be good for the US that Asia is ahead of us.
There’s some great discussion on Vortex-L for this
http://www.mail-archive.com/vortex-
Where are the hot fusion reactors we’ve spent hundreds of $billions trying to develop?
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It really doesn’t matter to me that much. Have you noticed food costs increasing or are they decreasing? Far simpler metric.
Liberals live in a sea of lies.
Bullbleep, dude. The ONLY fraud proven in the field of LENR was the experiment done at MIT, which supposedly disproved Pons and Fleischmann's work. The published paper claimed that no excess heat was seen. Investigation of the raw data showed that the experiment had indeed produced excess heat.
EVERY aspect of Pons and Fleischmann has been replicated, in fact many times, and new approaches have also been developed and replicated...all by legitimate researchers at legitimate research institutions.
But you just keep on peddling the old "it's all a scam" lie.
We should, of course, be glad. But the lying physicists who have actively worked to kill LENR research need to answer for their fraud. It won't happen, of course.
Gotta disagree with you on this one. It would be BETTER if the US had been at the forefront of adoption, but it will be such a revolution in technology, that it will STILL be good for the US.
And I very seriously doubt that the Rossi approach will prove to be anything like the "last word" in practical LENR. More like the first syllable.
Within 7 years of the discovery of artificial radioactivity by the Curies, we had a working reactor. Within 12 years of that we had commercial nuclear reactors and nuclear powered submarines. This all with technology which is considered primitive by today's standards.
Within 19 years of Pons-Fleischmann ... bupkis.
As for hot fusion (aka real fusion): no genuine fusion proponent that I know of has promised one failed "imminent" breakthrough after another. All serious physicists have said that in order to become a reality it will require technology we do not yet have.
In a seminar room at CalTech 32 years ago we were told by one of only three people in the world who have actually designed self-sustaining nuclear fusion devices: "a fusion reactor may exist within the lifetimes of some of the young men in this room -- but I doubt it." I was a 26 year old graduate student at the time; I'm not holding my breath. Real physicists don't promise on things they know are undeliverable, unlike the fraud-merchants Kevmo is constantly, breathlessly advertising for.
By contrast, Kevmo and his merry men defrauded by one string of charlatans after another have been posting in the smokey back rooms of FR for -- how many years is it now? -- with the REAL breakthrough coming in the Fall, or the Spring. Or next year ... or ... soon. Real soon. As soon as Rossi or some other fraud gets another million bucks.
I'll say it again: if it's real, why is there nothing to show for it?
Oh c'mon. Please stop selling yourself so short there Kev. Real fact-based research doesn't matter much to you? My friend -- it doesn't matter to you at all.
The facts are indisputable: By very broad, very deep measures, the people of the world are eating more than they ever have, and food is more plentiful and cheaply available than ever.
The rising cost of food for Americans isn't a measure of its availability. It's a measure of the falling purchasing power of the dollar.
No wonder you believe such horse crap as LENR.
And yet the hot fusion guys have spent in the hundreds of billions of research dollars and produced zip.
"In a seminar room at CalTech 32 years ago we were told by one of only three people in the world who have actually designed self-sustaining nuclear fusion devices: "a fusion reactor may exist within the lifetimes of some of the young men in this room -- but I doubt it."
Since there is not, and never has been, a "self-sustaining fusion reactor", your comment is obviously bogus. Why not give the NAME of the supposed individual who made the comment??
"I was a 26 year old graduate student at the time; I'm not holding my breath. Real physicists don't promise on things they know are undeliverable, unlike the fraud-merchants Kevmo is constantly, breathlessly advertising for.
Again. Hundreds of billions spent. The hot fusion boys "must" have promised at "some" point to deliver "something". And they have not.
ONE "cold fusion" researcher has made claims to have a high-output reactor. Kevmo has posted virtually nothing about Rossi.
"By contrast, Kevmo and his merry men defrauded by one string of charlatans after another have been posting in the smokey back rooms of FR for -- how many years is it now? -- with the REAL breakthrough coming in the Fall, or the Spring. Or next year ... or ... soon."
WHAT "string of charlatans"? Pretty much every post that Kevmo has made has been about legitimate researchers from recognized research facilities.
"Real soon. As soon as Rossi or some other fraud gets another million bucks."
More bullbleep. LENR has gotten almost no funding. In most instances, the researchers have paid for much it out of their own pockets, or bootlegged it while working on other projects.
"I'll say it again: if it's real, why is there nothing to show for it?"
There is as much to show for it (and more) than the hot fusion boys have delivered. As usual, and the sign of the skeptopath, you ignore the peer-reviewed SCIENCE on the topic, and bleat the standard anti-LENR "talking points".
I have yet to engage even ONE skeptopath who is willing to actually examine the published scientific evidence, and you are no different.
And they did not claim they would do anything but research, so you have no actual point.
Since there is not, and never has been, a "self-sustaining fusion reactor", your comment is obviously bogus. Why not give the NAME of the supposed individual who made the comment??
His name was Edward Teller. The device was the Hydrogen Bomb. Maybe you've never read about it, but it's been in all the papers. For your edification, Ulam and Sakharov are the other two men. But I don't expect much knowledge about physics - or even the history of physics -- from someone who believes in cold "fusion."
And for your further education, although I didn't actually use the word reactor -- I said device -- I won't pick nits with you. You appear to be unaware that every nuclear bomb is, indeed, a nuclear reaction vessel, that is: a nuclear reactor. Try to catch up. The science is only sixty years old.
the peer-reviewed SCIENCE on the topic, and bleat the standard anti-LENR "talking points".
There is no "peer reviewed" science claiming anything other than "anomalous" events, which no one has EVER established represent nuclear reactions in a reproducible way. Other than many, many negative results, and the self-created "LENR" "journals" where various crackpots post nonsense to each other, cold fusion research doesn't show up in peer reviewed publications. Where are Pons and Fleischman now?
There are no standard anti-LENR talking points, any more than there are standard talking points about homeopathy, astrology, or any other nonsense. Get this through your head: There is no conspiracy against this dubious technology, because NO ONE CARES ABOUT COLD FUSION.
Your other comments are nothing but lies. I have responded to at least three posts of Kevmo's in the last year which were about Rossi's claims and Rossi's attempts to get funding. He claims this article is not about Rossi, but in fact three paragraphs deal with Rossi, and the Far East funding is for a Rossi associate.
Let the Koreans and Chinese "develop" this "energy source." They have lots of money to waste, and they're familiar with pseudo science. I'm sure at some point they'll be making the rounds to convince all of us how this latest version of acupuncture has something to offer. It doesn't. It's a waste of time and money. Fortunately, it has not been a waste of any serious physicists brainpower since about 1989.
More bullbleep, and a gigantic one at that. Government doesn't put out hundreds of billions of dollars without expecting a return on that work. The notion that it would be "just to do research" is so ludicrous that you should be ashamed to assert it.
"His name was Edward Teller. The device was the Hydrogen Bomb. Maybe you've never read about it, but it's been in all the papers. For your edification, Ulam and Sakharov are the other two men. But I don't expect much knowledge about physics - or even the history of physics -- from someone who believes in cold "fusion."
Yeah, I'm familiar with it. But, to put it bluntly, a bomb is not a "self sustaining power reactor". But it doesn't surprise me that you would try to deflect the utter failure of the hot fusion boys to deliver working power plants.
"There is no "peer reviewed" science claiming anything other than "anomalous" events, which no one has EVER established represent nuclear reactions in a reproducible way.
Lie. Most recently, Toyota and Mitsubishi have demonstrated controlled transmutation using an LENR approach. I forget which one reported first and which replicated. But you don't get transmutations without a nuclear process happening.
"Other than many, many negative results, and the self-created "LENR" "journals" where various crackpots post nonsense to each other, cold fusion research doesn't show up in peer reviewed publications."
LOL, where are these "many, many" negative results??? There were a few failures by physicists trying to do unfamiliar things (electrochemistry and calorimetry), and failing. Probably more due to their unfamiliarity with the techniques than any failure of "cold fusion". And then there was the MIT case, which succeeded but called itself a failure.
Last time I looked, "Naturwissenschaften" was peer reviewed.
"Where are Pons and Fleischman now?"
Unfortunately, Fleischman is dead. I think Pons is retired.
"There are no standard anti-LENR talking points, any more than there are standard talking points about homeopathy, astrology, or any other nonsense."
Then why do you guys ALWAYS use the same arguments (i.e. there are not working power reactors, therefore the technology can't be real, and "many, many" other such memes).
"Get this through your head: There is no conspiracy against this dubious technology, because NO ONE CARES ABOUT COLD FUSION."
Said anti-LENR activities well-documented by credible witnesses. Was there an organized conspiracy.....no. But there were certainly "many, many" anti-LENR actions taken, including getting people fired, or attempts to get them fired, promotions denied, research funding cancelled, and outright fraud (the MIT thing again).
"Your other comments are nothing but lies. I have responded to at least three posts of Kevmo's in the last year which were about Rossi's claims and Rossi's attempts to get funding.
WOW, a whole three posts. In two years and from a field of "many, many" articles.
"He claims this article is not about Rossi, but in fact three paragraphs deal with Rossi, and the Far East funding is for a Rossi associate."
I haven't seen him make any such claim about THIS article.
Let the Koreans and Chinese "develop" this "energy source." They have lots of money to waste, and they're familiar with pseudo science. I'm sure at some point they'll be making the rounds to convince all of us how this latest version of acupuncture has something to offer. It doesn't. It's a waste of time and money. Fortunately, it has not been a waste of any serious physicists brainpower since about 1989.
Ah, yes. "Precious" physicists brainpower. Like that which has failed with hot fusion for fifty years and counting.
Jessiz. Can you even read? Nobody was deflecting anything. I raised Teller's prediction in the context that someone who had produced hot (read:real) nuclear fusion was not making any promises so there is no deflection. He said there would not be any results for years, and there have been none. Unlike the cold (read:hoax) "fusion" people, who breathlessly proclaim we're right on the cusp of huge happenings. [Just send money!]
Your claim that the government doesn't grant hundreds of billions of dollars in research money without expecting results made me fall off my chair laughing. My wife was afraid I was going to tear a membrane. It was so funny I actually called two of my kids, one of whom is a post-doc doing research with about 40% gubmint grant, and the other who is working in a 100% government funded P4 bio lab right now. Having milked the government teat myself for a number of years -- including 7 years in graduate school paid for almost entirely by an NSF grant -- all I can tell you is you're about a 10x bigger fool than I thought you were [and I already give you credit for being a pretty ginormous one] if you think the government does not hand out billions of dollars a year for basic research -- for which it expects NO RESULTS WHATSOEVER.
As for negative results. You appear to have been sleeping through the late 1980's and early 1990's, during which time hundreds of [genuinely reputable] researchers could not verify Pons-Fleischman. One of those two clowns actually gave up a tenured position and left the country; not something any professor does if he has any remaining credibility in his field.
Just for example, go here, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_fusion and you will find descriptions of only a tiny fraction of the negative results obtained. Only cranks have ever claimed to see neutrons from Pons-Fleischman type experiments. People got fired because their "research" was a bunch of hooey, and because they falsified results.
Yes, sadly for cold "fusion" "scientists," falsifying "scientific" results will get you fired.
As for Kevmo, he has posted Rossi crap numerous times. I've only commented on three of them myself. Frankly, I ignore about 95% of the bilge you two humbugs come up with, because it isn't the least bit interesting, nor is it the least bit science. The only times I ever weigh in are when I feel like batting a mouse around the floor for a few minutes. [It's not actually cruel. For posting this crap it's condign punishment that you fully deserve. Like the Young Earth Creationists, this stuff is a disgrace and a black mark on conservatism.]
The claim that this thread is not about Rossi is made by Kevmo in post #15. So there's another statement you've made down the tubes.
Ah, yes. "Precious" physicists brainpower. Like that which has failed with hot fusion for fifty years and counting.
This will probably come as a shock to you, but the number of physicists working on nuclear fusion [even including the weapons labs] is not all that large. Nobody wants to invest a career in something that might be viable two generations after he's dead, and it is largely an engineering challenge and not a physics problem.
And I very seriously doubt that the Rossi approach will prove to be anything like the “last word” in practical LENR. More like the first syllable.
***Agreed. The Wright brothers were surpassed in a matter of a few short years, once everyone knew it was possible. There’s gonna be huge patent wars, and the Chinese will steal it all.
Thus attempting to shift the focus away from the total failure of the hot fusion community to harness fusion for any USEFUL purpose.
Your claim that the government doesn't grant hundreds of billions of dollars in research money without expecting results made me fall off my chair laughing. My wife was afraid I was going to tear a membrane. It was so funny I actually called two of my kids, one of whom is a post-doc doing research with about 40% gubmint grant, and the other who is working in a 100% government funded P4 bio lab right now. Having milked the government teat myself for a number of years -- including 7 years in graduate school paid for almost entirely by an NSF grant -- all I can tell you is you're about a 10x bigger fool than I thought you were [and I already give you credit for being a pretty ginormous one] if you think the government does not hand out billions of dollars a year for basic research -- for which it expects NO RESULTS WHATSOEVER.
Bullbleep. The government certainly DOES expect practical results from the projects it funds. My company is just finishing one such.
Guess what, I pay taxes too, and "I" expect to see hard results from government funded research. Perhaps not from any single funded project, but from the broad topic area supported. "Hot Fusion" (in many flavors) is such a broad topic, and you physicists have failed to deliver anything useful after fifty years of effort and huge amounts of tax dollars invested.
"As for negative results. You appear to have been sleeping through the late 1980's and early 1990's, during which time hundreds of [genuinely reputable] researchers could not verify Pons-Fleischman."
Really??? Who were they??? Hundreds, you say. How about listing ten or so? Their papers would be in the LENR-CANR.org archive. Or did you think that repository only included "favorable" papers.
"As for Kevmo, he has posted Rossi crap numerous times. I've only commented on three of them myself.
Compared to the total number of LENR postings, Kevmo's posts about Rossi are a tiny fraction. Since I've been on all these threads, I "think" I have a slight idea of what has and has not been posted.
"Frankly, I ignore about 95% of the bilge you two humbugs come up with, because it isn't the least bit interesting, nor is it the least bit science.
So why not ignore 100% if you're not interested???
"The claim that this thread is not about Rossi is made by Kevmo in post #15. So there's another statement you've made down the tubes."
LOL. Post #15 was BY YOU, talking about global poverty. So there's another statement that you're proved to be lying about.
Kevmo's comment was in post 18, and looking back at the article to refresh my memory, I agree with him. The article is NOT "about Rossi", though it does mention him along the way.
"This will probably come as a shock to you, but the number of physicists working on nuclear fusion [even including the weapons labs] is not all that large.
I don't much care how many researchers are "...working on (hot) nuclear fusion". My concern is for the hundreds of billions of dollars spent on the subject with no useful result.
"Nobody wants to invest a career in something that might be viable two generations after he's dead, and it is largely an engineering challenge and not a physics problem.
So, after fifty years and hundreds of billions of dollars spent BY PHYSICISTS, "hot fusion" is "not a physics problem" after delivering a null result.
Real fact-based research doesn’t matter much to you?
***Did I say that? No. I said something else, so by arguing against something that you propped up in my behalf, you’re engaging the straw argument fallacy.
My friend — it doesn’t matter to you at all.
***My friend, you simply don’t know what you’re talking about. I didn’t post this article to discuss food. You’re all wrapped up in it.
The rising cost of food
***So then, by my simple metric, you have answered my question. Food costs are increasing. You acknowledge it and so do I. It’s an established fact. All the rest of the crap you’re pushing is someone’s opinion.
for Americans isn’t a measure of its availability. It’s a measure of the falling purchasing power of the dollar.
***The biggest component of the rise in food costs is due to energy. A LENR economy will lower that cost.
a black mark on conservatism
***Well, since this is a political website, it makes sense to point out your lack of conservatism by “Having milked the government teat myself for a number of years”.
The claim that this thread is not about Rossi is made by Kevmo in post #15.
***I’ll say it again. Just because an article mentions Rossi, it doesn’t make it about Rossi. I haven’t posted a “Rossi says” article in over 2 years. During that time, Rossi has dominated the LENR news circles, so if it is your expectation that LENR articles shouldn’t even mention him, that’s just pure bowlsheet.
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