Posted on 03/14/2014 11:30:01 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Big changes are coming to the labor market that people and governments aren't prepared for, Bill Gates believes.
Speaking at Washington, D.C., economic think tank The American Enterprise Institute on Thursday, Gates said that within 20 years, a lot of jobs will go away, replaced by software automation ("bots" in tech slang, though Gates used the term "software substitution").
This is what he said:
"Software substitution, whether it's for drivers or waiters or nurses … it's progressing. ... Technology over time will reduce demand for jobs, particularly at the lower end of skill set. ... 20 years from now, labor demand for lots of skill sets will be substantially lower. I don’t think people have that in their mental model."
He's not the only one predicting this gloomy scenario for workers. In January, the Economist ran a big profile naming over a dozen jobs sure to be taken over by robots in the next 20 years, including telemarketers, accountants and retail workers.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
If it is relatively flat, yes. But, if it is progressive, it can be volatile.
That's one of the reason that federal government revenues crashed in 2008. The rates had been adjusted to the point that the bottom 50% paid almost no income tax, and the top 1% were paying a bigger proportion of federal taxes than ever before.
But, the income of the top 1% is variable, and much less stable than the middle class. The income (especially from capital gains) dropped off, and so did tax revenue. And it made the deficit that much larger.
Yeah now you have lay there with that uncomfortable sleeve on you arem that just takes it so often.
It’s been happening for decades, why people are just now noticing I cant imagine.
In fact, when I got a new washer and dryer recently, I proclaimed to my children: come see the two new robots I bought!
My children said.. um... dad... those aren’t robots... I said, Sure they are! they are just robots that do a specific function, unlike the robots depicted in movies. We also have robots that wash our dishes, cooked our food, pump the water to our house, heat our water, air condition our homes, ect, ect.
well basically we don’t, the democratic party just needs more voters.
but, the technology is also not quite there yet to replace most manual labor jobs, but we are real close.
“....hey Mr. Bill...I’d like to know what robot is going to wipr your ugly little butt when you’re just another demented peasant?...”
.
By that time another robot on the death panel has already decided that Mr. Bill should just quietly die.
Perhaps the invention of the computer is not the blessing we, at first, thought to be.
In many instances it turned out to be a de-humanizing machine.
IMHO they already view us as expendable. They’re just working on our replacements.
It’s why they speak of us as being a cancer on the planet and that the ideal number of us is somewhere south of 100M. Of course, all THEIR children/gkids will be in that number.
As I typed above. The elites, Gates especially, want us to be sure to ‘save the planet’ for THEIR kids by foregoing kids of our own. And if we won’t do it voluntarily they’ll do it forcibily. Gates is on the record advocating coercive and forcible sterilization.
Over two decades ago I was involved in AutoCad solutions for an expanding central PA gas/convenience chain. Their touchscreen pads appeared in the next few years with multiple counter installations where you selected the sandwich components and it was “made to order”, or MTO.
They have expanded all over the region and are known for their service and spotless locations.
“....we were instructed to take the longest possible route.”
.
Yup, contractors are paid my the number of manhours they charge. Load up the project with new hires (including a whole bunch of foreigners) and when the job is completed, lay’m off.
That’s how the game is played.
I do agree with Gates, I saw that very thing in my last job. We started out with over sixty Union guys. I was part of a four man programmer/engineer team that took everything these guys knew and automated those functions. It took over twenty years but by the time natural attrition and no hiring for open positions and the union guys were down to four and the programmers were gone and the System administrators were two people.
Automation of repetitive tasks and functions is here to stay.
Of course the end result as we see more and more is there is little new work for the population. My own bet to myself is that we will eventually see anti-fertility drugs as a normal part of ‘processed foods and pre-packaged meals. With the goal of reducing the planet’s population down to ninety million or so. That’s the goal I’ve been hearing for years from the ‘elites’ and the ‘tree-huggers. It’ll be interesting to see if they and their children will be a part of that population or if they will be ‘excessed’ as non-productive population.
Of course when dealing with people and the future we’re are more likely to see a world-wide revolution and everything turned upside down. Then again Huxley did predict a word addicted to Soma and TV, he might have been more correct than the rest of us in the long run.
I worked 35 years in a tier I automotive stamping plant and have seen first hand what automation and robotics have done for the industry.
I would say the vast majority of people driving their vehicles today have no idea what actually goes on in the auto plants and my plant in terms of automation. It's incredible........
I would highly recommend that everyone take advantage of the plant tours that are offered by some of the automakers
He has already been bringing in H-1Bots from overseas.
I work in a Help Desk and we could send out instructions to everyone the steps to fix many of the problems we deal with everyday but that is not done as many of us would probably lose our jobs. One of my previous supervisors even stated not to send out any walkthrus.... : )
Well, we have a Roomba which is a robotic vacuum cleaner that runs every Monday, Wednesday and Friday for over an hour each day. Now, if I could make a lawnmower to run once a week and mow the grass... I'd be very happy.
“One of my previous supervisors even stated not to send out any walkthrus.... : )”
I worked at a Fortune 500 defense company. They’d just walk a new employee to his desk and leave. They’d have no idea how to set up their voicemail or get a computer hooked up or enter their name into the corporate directory...there were about 50 things that a newbie would need help with. I wrote a little procedure and would just give them a file. 1. Do this. 2. Do that...and in about eight hours they’d have everything they needed.
I was talking to my broker on the phone today and I asked him if he could three-way us with my financial advisor. He’d worked there ten years and didn’t know how to do it. I asked him to read me the system identifier on his phone. I looked up the manual and talked him through it. (Four steps.) He was impressed. I sent him a link the manual.
Frankly, I’m stunned at how companies buy equipment and software that could save them millions and then don’t teach anybody to use it.
Just a side note, a couple of well placed EMP strikes could set our country back 100yrs, which would not be so bad as long as the rest of the world suffers the same, we would come out on top again.
Just day thinking outside the box, as I’m apt to do.
Ok. Bill Gates is obviously a very smart man. But, if he understands this than why does he always support democrats? Same question for Warren Buffet.
That would be funny if it weren’t so true! My current project is, by plan, 70/30...70% offshore, 30% onshore. If that isn’t bad enough, of the 30% onshore, we are overwhelmed by H1Bs.
In Japan they are testing an elder bathing robot. If they can get it to work and be safe it will be a wonderful thing.
Bots don’t do unions.
Yeah, well, a lot of those “surplus” have guns, so those elites might be in for a nasty surprise.
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