Posted on 11/12/2015 12:27:55 PM PST by conservativejoy
Dive into the political Web and somewhere you'll find this now-unavoidable headline: 10 Things We Learned From the GOP Debate. Let's keep it simple. What we learned at the debate in Milwaukee was one thing: This campaign won't end until it gets to Cleveland.
None of these candidates looks likely to pull away and capture the majority of primary delegates before the party's nominating convention in Cleveland next July.
After Tuesday's debate, the fourth evening we've all spent with these people, it's hard for me to see why a round of brokering in Cleveland isn't the most likely outcome.
This is the most volatile presidential nominating race in memory. Opinion polls, with all their statistical limitations, are playing a dominant role determining who stays on Debate Island and who gets thrown off.
Buried in this polling, however, is the reality that these preferences aren't much more than sentiments. Most voters admit they haven't picked a horse. Tuesday's debate showed why.
In the third debate, on Oct. 28, after strong performances by Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, conventional tea-leaf reading said they would rise as Donald Trump and Ben Carson inevitably faded.
Ben Carson just spent a week passing through an intense crucible over his biographical credibility. After Tuesday evening's good performance, I'd say Ben Carson isn't going to fade.
As to Donald Trump, well, we're close to the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade, and every year you simply marvel at how those fabulous balloons stay afloat.
On Tuesday, Mr. Trump, wending his way through the minimum wage issue, said: 'Wages are too high.' He survived saying John McCain isn't a war hero and George W. Bush didn't keep us safe on 9/11. But this?
Mr. Trump's blue-collar base is entering its eighth year of Barack Obama's low-wage economy.
(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...
The WSJ is now desperately hoping for a brokered convention in which the GOPe / RINO bigwigs can pick the Rube.
Otherwise, an outright win is going to an anti-establishment candidate.
I have a Master’s Degree in Electrical Engineering from the oldest engineering college in America.
My undergrad didn’t suck either.
I do where blue shirts occasionally - I’ll give them that.
Don Trump and Theodore Cruz are the shit.
For the same reason it hasn't happened for more than the last half century: because the purpose of the TV-era convention is to anoint the nominee, not choose the nominee.
So wishes the Wall Street Journal as they pine for a brokered convention to nominate Jeb or some other Chamber of Commerce/Donor favorite.
But the truth of the matter is that the campaign is already down to four candidates (Trump, Carson, Cruz & Rubio) and Trump is much further ahead now than Romney was at this point four years ago.
The game is over if he cements a deal with any of the other three within the next three months. I'm cautiously optimistic that it won't be the putz Rubio.
wear - for fks sake.
Meaning Jeb won't quit until every possible avenue of treason and bribery has been explored. :)
One year ago, I had him as the slam dunk winner of the nomination and the Presidency. His odds have dropped, but with the corruptocracy firmly behind him he still has a about a 50-50 chance of pulling it off, whatever the polls say today.
The last nominee to not get a first-round convention vote win, and who later was elected president, was FDR in 1932.
I would hope it wouldn’t be Rubio. Trump has whittled away at Rubio and Carson, so it would be hard to see either of them as his running mate.
Trump and Cruz are definitely the real deal. Are there enough intelligent people left in this country who can see that? Hope so.
If the rules don’t change, EIGHT states’ majority delegations will be needed to even have a name entered in for nomination. That means a MAXIMUM of five candidates entered, but more likely three or four at the most.
What state can John Ellis Bush win? As things now stand, none.
What states can Cruz win? Right now he’s looking good in Texas. I can tell you that he has superior ground organization, MUCH better than Rubio’s. It is doubtful that Rubio or Carson will even be on the ballot in Virginia. (Only John Ellis Bush, Trump and Cruz are on target to make the ballot.) Cruz will be quite competitive in the heartland, south and the mountain states with Carson and Trump as things now stand.
Carson is strong in the south and the heartland.
Trump will clean up in the northeast. He speaks their language, he gets people motivated there. He will clean up in NY, New Hampshire, CT, Pennsylvania, NJ and Massachusetts. CLEAN. UP.
Rubio is competitive in Florida and is competitive in the upper midwest.
I can see Trump getting his eight states as things now stand. I can see it for Carson. Cruz has to move the needle a bit more, but he is on the right trajectory to do just that, largely at the expense of Carson and Rubio.
I cannot name eight states that Rubio can win without Trump, Carson or Cruz dropping out. I don’t see them dropping out.
Unless a bunch of RINOs position themselves to go to the convention as rogue Trump delegates to change the rules in their favor or to get their way on a successive ballot, I don’t see an opening for a RINO to get on the ballot, and the Cruz, Carson and Trump delegates won’t give them one. They’ll be LUCKY if they can get a Rubio as VP.
If Trump has a plurality and the convention cannot cobble together a majority based on his delegates’ cooperation, he will go Third Party, unless the Cruz and Carson delegates come to an agreement with Trump’s personal blessing.
There are a number of scenarios where a majority of the delegation (and alternates) might just walk out.
It really is “up in the air”. I’ve never seen anything like this election.
I enjoyed your analysis.
Yup, The WSJ and NRO have lost it. We are down to Trump, Cruz, Carson and Rubio. Carson will fade shortly, nice guy but too many loose ends. At some point Rubio will get dissected by Cruz in a debate.
What I think we really want is a Trump/Cruz ticket. If Rubio is close to the nomination, the Tea Party will walk.
They are setting the stage for a convention decision because they HAVE to produce an amnesty candidate for The Cheap Labor Express.
This might happen....while not trying to insult other states IA, NH, SC and most importantly FLORIDA!!!!!
Ive been saying to anyone that will listen here in S Florida the primary vote is vital. A lot of folks just pass on the primary....cant let that happen this year. Bush wins in Florida by 1 vote and he wins the nom.
Good observations....Rubio MAY be the key to stopping Bush in Florida! Bush is out if he loses Florida....
Cruz seems to be the pick of the litter, Trump seems to be our hole card in case the GOPe decides it won’t abide a Reaganite and decides to get frisky.
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