Posted on 03/11/2020 8:06:12 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
If you like useless information, go right ahead. Or maybe you don’t agree it’s useless information.
What are you doing any differently given the estimated death rate?
Agreed and that will make the death rate even smaller.
If anything, first, I am a Patriot.
July 4, 2020.
The thing I find most interesting (and confounding) is the vastly different reported death rates in different countries.
CV seems racist. The more Caucasian the country, the less deaths it seems. Is that just medical differences or is something else going on?
Italy has a 39% Closed Case Death Rate so far. See here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
The correct statistic to follow is Deaths / Closed Cases, which I’ll call the Closed Case Death Rate. Closed Cases are composed of both “Deaths” and “Recovered / Discharged.” Neither the numerator or denominator contains people who are currently sick and may either die or recover in the future.
Like Italy, China had a high early Closed Case Death Rate, which declined dramatically to about 6%. Nobody trusts China’s numerator or denominator, but let’s say Italy follows the decline as quarantines work.
In the mean time, let’s not use the bad math of Deaths / Total Cases. In a situation where the Cases are expanding rapidly as they are in Italy, that’s a useless statistic. Many of the Active Cases will result in Death. The correct stat is Deaths / Closed Cases, which is extremely high now (39%), and will be worked down as effective measures (hopefully) kick in (6% more or less???).
Ok, you’re locked in: July 4th as the over-under for my death from Coronavirus.
Basij are not old and frail.
Italy is a total standout among the infected countries. I have a lot of relatives there, luckily they are in the central-south and in tiny isolated villages.
But there’s something strange about how hard this is hitting Italy. I’m curious whether we will learn some day why...
Germany had over 1,000 reported cases before it had one death.
Austria, Norway, Denmark, Sweden and UK are similar, so far.
It’s fascinating.
The hospital when my wife works is meeting today to decide. Mass declared an Emergency and that opens a whole range of policies that can be changed or imposed.
I put 40 quatloos on the alien Laz to survive.
In the end I think they will find a mutation occurred. I know there are the S and L Variants already. Perhaps more.
Depending on the variant, and the genetics of the people (and whether or not they smoke) the virus would get a more secure grip. On top of that, Italy is OLD. And I am not talking about “ruins.”
Thanks, I just added it to my cart at Amazon
The people are great. I couldn’t do their job.
I simply haven’t spent this much time alone since October! The dog senses it...she is curled up at my feet. And she usually doesn’t pay me two seconds of attention.
How are you doing? You have some of us worried. Not me, of course. Some people are. LOL.
Heh, good one. I’m not saying the situation isn’t serious. I’m saying we should do what makes sense (sanitation mainly) and keep living as normally as possible.
People who want to try to hole up until it’s over will find that very difficult quickly.
If I get it, I will kick its ass, or not, like cancer or any other illness.
Congrats, I’m confident you won’t be disappointed.
This is the first day in my hospital that I see, hear and feel changes. I don’t know why, but there’s a decided difference in the atmosphere.
We have no confirmed cases in my county yet.
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