Posted on 05/25/2020 8:41:27 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
A new model shows reopening states and ignoring the pandemic could result in more than 5 million people contracting coronavirus.
According to Yahoo Finance, a Penn Wharton Budget Model shows reopening states could cause positive coronavirus cases in the U.S. to jump to 5.4 million by the end of July. The model, which assumes states reopening May 18, explores various scenarios under which states reopen.
The model also includes lockdowns, a partial reopening, and takes into account whether social distancing rules would continue to be adhered to or are relaxed.
If states fully reopen with no social distancing rules in place, the model shows as many as 5.4 million people could contract coronavirus. If states reopen while still practicing measures of social distancing, the number drops to nearly 4.3 million. Partially reopening the states with social distancing rules in place would result in nearly 3.2 million positive cases, according to the model.
The current death toll in the United States is more than 91,000, according to Johns Hopkins. With states under a full lockdown, the model still projects the death toll at just over 156,000, an increase from its previous forecasts of 117,000.
A Penn Wharton Budget Model from May 1, showed more than 200,000 deaths related to coronavirus pandemic.
Although the model predicts a significant rise in cases and deaths, it does show that the economy will rebound faster if states are reopened. According to the model, if states stay in lockdown with social distancing orders in place, the U.S. GDP will shrink by 10.8% year over year by July 24.
However, reopening states will save the country from severe economic losses. If states reopen, the GDP would decline by 7.7% compared to 2019. If social distancing is reduced, GDP would decline by 6.6%.
Reopening states in spite of the coronavirus would also benefit job growth. More than 30 million Americans are currently unemployed. But if states reopened, 1 million jobs would be created by the end of July. If states aren’t reopened, millions more will join the unemployed ranks.
Lol
Just because all the other models were wrong doesn’t mean this one is!
globull warming modelers again, sigh
All they seem to do is cause panic, distortion, disruption, fear, and economic damage.
Model schmodel...
We’re all dead in 11, right?
Bullsh1t
And of course this terrifying report is couched in the typical weasel-word “could”... Well, Elvis “could” come back. Monkeys “could” fly out of my posterior. Crazy Uncle Joe “could” remember what he had for breakfast this morning... Ok, that last one might be a stretch.
Remember, if you keep making new models, at least one will be correct, eventually.
Yelling fire in a crowded movie house inducing panic
“Flatten the curve” implied same number of cases over longer period of time (therefore not overwhelming the hospitals all at once)
How do they know we haven’t had 20 million people in the United States exposed to CV?
Or they could not.
We REALLY should be afraid, because the early models were 100% correct with their apocalyptic predictions....
My g/f is super hot and could be a model.
She says eleventy billion will die of the rona if we don't elect Joe Biden.
Whose model ya gonna believe?
Egad!
Why you do dis to my eye, SeekAndFind!?
But nothing beats models.
Same folks doing Climate Change??
Is that the same model that predicted 2 million dead by now and bodies in the streets? Or another equally accurate screed?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.