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Biden is favored to win the election (Nate Silver from 538) 11-01-2020
538 ^ | November 1, 2020 | Nate Silver

Posted on 11/01/2020 5:54:22 PM PST by MinorityRepublican

We’re now two days away from Election Day, and Joe Biden leads in both national and state polls. At this point, President Trump needs a big polling error in his favor if he's going to win — and as editor-in-chief Nate Silver writes, a 2016-sized polling error just isn’t going to cut it. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t still a path for Trump. Trump might be the underdog, but bigger polling errors have happened in the past, and there’s a difference between a 10 percent chance of winning and a 0 percent chance. A 10 percent chance of winning, which is what our forecast gives Trump, is roughly the same as the odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)

(Excerpt) Read more at projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Conspiracy; Society; Weird Stuff
KEYWORDS: natesilver
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1 posted on 11/01/2020 5:54:22 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

They are still pushing the Biden lead... wonder what hedging he’ll offer tomorrow to minimize disconnect with results.


2 posted on 11/01/2020 5:56:48 PM PST by Reno89519 (Buy American, Hire American! End All Worker Visa Programs. Replace Visa Workers w/ American Workers)
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To: MinorityRepublican

He was ridiculously wrong in 2016. A red tsunami is coming.


3 posted on 11/01/2020 5:57:06 PM PST by pnut22
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To: MinorityRepublican

For those that disagree;

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3900629/posts


4 posted on 11/01/2020 5:57:51 PM PST by samadams2000 (Get your houses in order.)
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To: pnut22

If Nate Silver was smart, he would give Trump 45% chance of winning, rather than 11%. I guess he’s getting paid off big time by folks like George Soros so he doesn’t care if he becomes irrelevant after Tuesday.


5 posted on 11/01/2020 5:58:20 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

Nice graphics. I like the ribbon, although from what I’ve been reading, a few more of those light blue items should be pink.


6 posted on 11/01/2020 5:59:00 PM PST by Pearls Before Swine
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To: MinorityRepublican

Sick to death of this crap. Can not wait until they declare Biden the winner and get it over with.


7 posted on 11/01/2020 6:00:12 PM PST by Toespi
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To: MinorityRepublican

Trump gets 96 miles of supporters ( Arizona now). Everywhere he goes, thousands of supporters rally for him. Biden gets from zero ( Arizona again) to 65 attendees ( including a half dozen secret service guards who hqve yo be there). When he dares venture out of his basement


8 posted on 11/01/2020 6:00:20 PM PST by faithhopecharity (Politicians are not born, they are excreted. Marcus Tullius Cicero (106 to 43 BCE))
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To: Reno89519

He doesn’t have to hedge. Nobody believes him anyway. Polls are fundraisers, period. Whether they are right or wrong, they deliver what the purchasers want.


9 posted on 11/01/2020 6:00:40 PM PST by richardtavor
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To: MinorityRepublican

Reading this crap makes me sick


10 posted on 11/01/2020 6:01:35 PM PST by raynman33
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To: Reno89519

“ They are still pushing the Biden lead”

He is paid off in the same way as the Bidens are...just from a mostly different source (not quite as close to the center).


11 posted on 11/01/2020 6:02:13 PM PST by Scott from the Left Coast (Make Orwell Fiction Again)
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To: Toespi

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

I think it comes down to PA.

12 posted on 11/01/2020 6:02:42 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: pnut22

>>A red tsunami is coming.<<

Trump received 306 EC votes in 2016. His base has not eroded.
Trump’s support has firmed and grown.

I think he’ll receive 320+.


13 posted on 11/01/2020 6:02:52 PM PST by servantboy777
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To: MinorityRepublican

Well then, I guess a lot of democrats can just stay home then


14 posted on 11/01/2020 6:02:55 PM PST by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the days of Lot; they did eat, they drank, they bought, they sold ......)
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To: Reno89519

They are still pushing the Biden lead... wonder what hedging he’ll offer tomorrow to minimize disconnect with results.

**************

I suspect he’s part of the cabal that’s laying the foundation for the lie that Trump “stole” the election because all the best polls said Biden was supposed to win.

Thereby and therefore, establishing “just cause” for the insurrection that have planned.


15 posted on 11/01/2020 6:03:31 PM PST by Grimmy (equivocation is but the first step along the road to capitulation)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Trafalger Polling’s Robert Cahaly Predicts HUGE Trump Win on Sunday Morning Futures:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3900716/posts


16 posted on 11/01/2020 6:03:41 PM PST by ScottfromNJ
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To: MinorityRepublican

Boo hoo. MAKE THE DEMOCRATS CRY AGAIN


17 posted on 11/01/2020 6:03:49 PM PST by EnquiringMind
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To: MinorityRepublican

Weasel words


18 posted on 11/01/2020 6:03:54 PM PST by mylife (The Roar Of The Masses Could Be Farts)
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To: servantboy777
Trump received 306 EC votes in 2016. His base has not eroded.

We'll see what happens in the Great Lakes states. This time, Democrats are not taking them for granted unlike Hillary did back in '16.

19 posted on 11/01/2020 6:04:17 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

I kinda like the guy anyway... but this is garbage.


20 posted on 11/01/2020 6:04:51 PM PST by mrsmith (US MEDIA: " Every 'White' cop is a criminal! And all the 'non-white' criminals saints!")
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