Russia, China and Iran strengthen their military presence in Antarctica

After decades of calm, the status quo in Antarctica is crumbling. Today, the continent is teetering on the brink of collapse, both literally and figuratively. More and more countries are interested in using Antarctic territory, including Iran, Russia and China.

According to Censor.NET, citing Foreign Affairs, climate change is changing the physical environment, and policy towards Antarctica is changing rapidly as rivalry between major powers and growing demand for resources have brought it to the forefront of the global agenda.

China, Iran, and other countries are expanding the scope of authorized activities on the continent and contemplating future territorial claims.

For example, last autumn, Iranian Navy Commander Shahram Irani announced that his country plans to build a permanent military base in Antarctica. He went so far as to claim that Iran somehow has "ownership rights" to the South Pole.

That same autumn, the largest research corps from China arrived in Antarctica, consisting of 460 scientists. They completed their work in three months, and the station opened in February. According to the Antarctic Treaty, which regulates activities on the continent, China's actions are perfectly permissible.

"The arrival of great power rivalry to the shores of the Antarctic will mark a break with the long era when this continent was a place of international cooperation. The Antarctic Treaty, which entered into force in 1961, prohibits the use of the continent for military purposes and instead advocates scientific cooperation. This system is now under greater strain than ever," Foreign Affairs reports.

As for Russia, the armed forces provide logistical support to some national Antarctic missions. This practice is ostensibly in line with the Antarctic Treaty, but its ambiguity has obvious security implications. It is difficult to determine whether personnel are conducting civilian or military operations.

ARTICLE - Censor.NET citing Foreign Affairs

Great-Power Competition Comes to Antarctica
China’s Scientific Push Tests the Continent’s Stability
By Elizabeth Buchanan
March 18, 2024
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/arctic-antarctic/great-power-competition-comes-antarctica

“SCIENCE OR SECURITY?

Part of the reason Antarctica is vulnerable to strategic competition is that countries already have a scientific presence there that could easily be transformed into a military presence. The United States’ strategic science hub—Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station—straddles all seven frozen territorial claims to the continent. The base hosts up to 150 U.S. personnel to conduct and support scientific research. Farther south, in summer, as many as 1,500 U.S. personnel operate at McMurdo Station. A third American station, Palmer, accommodates about 40 U.S personnel. Together, these stations send a strong signal of the United States’ presence on the continent. China also has a history of blending scientific research work with military activity, an approach it has now enshrined in law. Dubbed by the Chinese government “civil-military fusion,” all civilian research activities are now required to have military application or utility for China. This extends to China’s Antarctic footprint.

Although the Antarctic Treaty bans militarization or military deployment south of 60 degrees latitude—covering the whole continent—military personnel and hardware are allowed if they support scientific research objectives. Many countries rely on their militaries to operate in Antarctica. Argentina, Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States all deploy military assets and personnel on Antarctic research expeditions. China’s and Russia’s militaries also provide logistical support for some national Antarctic missions.

This practice operates entirely within the bounds of the Antarctic Treaty System, but its ambiguity creates clear security implications. Whether personnel are conducting civilian or military operations is difficult to determine. The system operates on trust, presenting a ripe opportunity for abuse. Satellites are a clear example. Systems such as the United States’ GPS, China’s BeiDou, the European Union’s Galileo, and Russia’s GLONASS all rely on Antarctic ground receivers to function. Although these systems are central to scientific research in Antarctica, they have clear military-security applications, too.

China has sought to use Antarctic Treaty System rules to advance its own interests. Consider its approach to Dome Argus, the highest point on the Antarctic continent. The ice dome provides the clearest (and shortest) shot to space, making it the ideal place from which to receive satellite activity. China is free to conduct research on the dome as it does via a research station in the area, but in 2019 it went further, attempting to assert de facto control over the dome. It proposed establishing an Antarctic Specially Managed Area—a zone provided for by the treaty system where a country can restrict and dictate access to (or over) an area. A country is allowed to establish such a zone only if it can prove that subsequent research activities in the same area are undermining its scientific research agenda. China claimed that this was the case, but its request was rejected given that Beijing was the only country carrying out research activities at that time in the area.
CONFLICT ON ICE

The crux of the challenge with Antarctica is enforcement: What is stopping countries from engaging in subversive activities? Although China’s cunning plans for Dome Argus were blocked, the issue will likely come up again. Dome Argus falls in the territory claimed by Australia. Given the country’s vital interest in the area, Australia must invest in adequate inland capabilities to reach the isolated area—including by ski, tractor, and helicopter. Presence is power in the barren wasteland that is Antarctica.

Consensus among all 29 parties—what is needed to open a review conference into the Antarctic Treaty—would be practically impossible. In theory, the review conference mechanism, available to parties since 1991 yet never utilized, could be used to build in enforcement mechanisms, such as fines and bans. But for the foreseeable future, it is hard to imagine the United States and its allies achieving consensus with China and Russia to agree to discuss revisions to the treaty.

That said, there are policies the West can implement on its own to keep more corrosive activities in check. A good place to start would be to hold China to account by highlighting its activities in Antarctica. States should also audit their polar research sectors to ascertain whether they are funding or supporting Chinese state research endeavors. According to the military-civil fusion law, the Chinese government deems any research activity to have military-strategic application potential. Just how much of Beijing’s Antarctic endeavor are Western states naively underwriting? International inspections should be ramped up. Too few inspections occur under the treaty auspices, largely because of a lack of capabilities. States should therefore pool their funding more purposefully and much more regularly to ensure China’s stations are well monitored.”
(excerpt)

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