Senate Races to Watch

South Dakota- I expect this one to be a barnburner. Thune is back and now there is a third party candidate (Tim Giago) that leans towards Daschle’s ideology. The Indian reservations in SD have been a haven for democratic votes and Tim Johnson owes his re-election to them. But now that an Indian candidate has applied to run, the Democrats are in trouble here. I expect Bush to visit often and the Republicans to put great effort into this race. The only thing that bothers me is the Janklow factor. He has done some damage here and it looks like Herseth will get the House seat because of him. This race is a true toss up but I think Daschle is in real trouble.

Alaska- I expect Murkowski to hold this seat. Knowles is a real threat but how did he get elected governor? Three-way race and he won by only 500 votes. The problem with Knowles is what will he say about the national Democratic Party? How about Kerry? I think Bush’s coattails will reach Lisa Murkowski. Any polls on this race?

North Carolina- It looks like another match-up with Bowles again. I think the Republicans have a very strong chance of getting smoothie John Edwards’ vacant seat. How is Bowles going to get any more votes than he got last time against Dole? How will he convince Dole voters to vote for him now? What will he say about Kerry, too? Polls suggest this is a tie right now. I think Burr will win.

South Carolina- This could be the Democrats last chance to have a senate seat from South Carolina for a long time. Tenebaum is the only statewide elected Democrat right now, but what is her stand on the issues? She is from Georgia or to be exact from Pineview in Wilcox County. She came home trying to raise money for her candidacy. Why does she need out of state money? And now it appears that she is facing an African-American candidate named Ben Frasier. She should have no problem defeating him. But where is her money for the general election? I think the Republican nominee, whether you like it or not, will be ex-Governor Beasley. I think he poses the biggest threat to Tenebaum and should beat her by the same margin that Graham won by. I expect Bush to do well here and that will shore up Beasley. Tenebaum will have a hard time shedding the national Democratic Party label. Republican pick-up.

Georgia- Zell Miller has made this seat too hard for Democrats to keep. The Democrat Party in GA is falling apart. They cannot find a viable candidate. Majette from the 4th District does not stand a chance statewide. The question is whether it will be Isakson or Cain or Collins. Rep. Marshall was the Democrats best chance and he is trying to hold onto his own seat. Do not be too surprised if Republicans try to recruit him next year. Easy Republican pick-up.

Florida- How close this race is going to be is going to depend on who the parties will nominate. If it is Castor for the Democrats then it could be real close. Castor is weak because she has not been around in a while in politics and she was president of the college (I think South Florida) where a professor was arrested on terrorist related charges. Any one remember his name? Deuce (Deutsch) Bigalow and Pinellas are probably too liberal for the rest of the state I hope the Republicans nominate Martinez because it will help Bush and it will probably lead to a Republican pick-up for this seat. McCollum is a lot like Bowles in comparison because he has already lost one senate race. This race could depend on the outcome of the presidential election in the state.

Louisiana- Now that the Democrats are facing a multi-race for the nomination it is not that certain that it will be a John v. Vitter race. Vitter will have plenty of money for the runoff thanks to the indecisiveness of the Democrats. The Democrats also face the dilemma of having an African-America running for the nomination. LA has not been too friendly for Republicans lately and there has been two close races in the last 2 years fro Republicans against Blanco and Landrieu. Vitter has a real chance to win though. It looks like there will be a run-off, but it is anyone’s guess who the Democratic nominee will be.

Illinois- Who would have thought that this would be a race to watch? Obama Barack v. Jack Ryan. Does anyone have any polling on this race so far? You would have to guess that the name Obama Barack will not play well in middle and southern Illinois. This one could be within a couple of thousand votes. Ryan has to go after the women’s’ vote. If he does well among white women he will do very well. What kind of money will Barack raise? Will he be able to escape the Daley shadow? Ryan should also concentrate on Chicago in order to overwhelm the Democrats large voter base in the state. Illinois is a very different place when you get out of Chicago. I would say this race is a straight toss-up.

Colorado- Another toss-up. I am not sure if Coors or Schaffer will get the nomination. Coors has a lot of appeal though. Salazar is the best the Democrats can put up. The Democrats will have to dump a lot of money into this race. Bush seems to be doing well in polling here and that will help the Republican nominee very well. Any thoughts here?

Oklahoma- I know many have put this in the toss-up box, but I think Coburn will get the nomination and will beat Carson easily. The Republicans might even pick-up Carson’s house seat.

CA- Boxer is facing a real opponent who is known statewide. Jones should try to ride the Schwarzenegger tide. Boxer is a radical and she be exposed. She is a San Francisco liberal who thinks she is more attuned to the issues that the rest of the state.

Wisconsin- This could be closer that what is being reported. The Republican nominee needs to have some money in order to take Feingold on.

Nevada- We could have beaten Reid if a high name nominee appeared. Washington- I like Nethercutt, but Dunn could have defeated Osama Murray. North Dakota- Where’s the candidate in this conservative state Overall:

Republicans look very good in the senate races. The Democrats have to defend a lot of states that went for Bush while maintaining the states they already have. The South looks very promising for the Republicans and they have plenty of cash. Republicans pick-up two to three seats.

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Nevada: Jack Woodcock has an outside chance of unseating Harry Reid. Woodcock has some personal wealth, and Reid has a history of weaker-than-expected showings on election day. I say this race is worth persuing. The Reno-Sparks-Carson City area will probably be the deciding factor.

Washington state: George Nethercutt has proven himself to be even more inept that the airhead he's running against. People worried about his eastern Washington base, so what does he do? Moves to the Seattle area so he can call himself a local. It doesn't change that he's never won an election in the Puget Sound area, but does show that he has no loyalty to his hometown. In other words, he alienated his home base and gained nothing in return. Brilliant. And don't forget the term-limit promise. Is it too late to find another candidate?

Missouri: Most conservatives seem to forget that state Treasurer Nancy Farmer has won a statewide election in 2000. Furthermore, she defeated a better-known opponent and polled 75,000 more votes than Al Gore. Kit Bond's longivity is less impressive than it looks (like Harry Reid's), and the only time he won by a double-didget margin was in 1972. All the ingredients of an over-confident incumbent being upset are here.

South Dakota- Close, but definitely leaning Daschle. South Dakotans love their pork. NO CHANGE Alaska- You've got this one right. Lisa will win. Knowles has never had to go head-to-head against anyone. By the way, John Lindauer, his first opponent as governor who had to drop out of the race, is the father of that crazy Lindauer woman in Takoma Park, Md. who was arrested for espionage. NO CHANGE North Carolina- Advantage for Burr over Bowles, but it's probably only a three or four point margin. GOP +1 South Carolina- Condon could win a runoff against Beasley. Either way, I think ultimately the Bush margin and her own liberalism will kill Tennenbaum. GOP +1 Georgia- The only question here is which Republican it will be. Isakson is a moderate-liberal Republican. I think Mac Collins is hopeless, but if he and Herman Cain can hold Isakson under 50%, I think one of the conservatives could win a no-holds-barred runoff. We're better off with Miller than with Isakson, so this race could be a loss. GOP +1 Florida- If Deutsch is the nominee, it's a cakewalk. If Castor, it's tough, but she does have some splaining to do, also on this "get Rush" business. McCollum will be the GOP nominee almost for sure. Dems are going to be hurting for money with all these southern states, so maybe I'll punt and call TOSSUP. Louisiana- Vitter will definitely place first in the jungle primary, but the rest of the story is unclear. Buddy Roemer (R.) is talking about getting in. That might sound bad, but he could actually cause a two-Republican runoff, since right now he polls just ahead of both John and Kennedy. The Dems are hurt by the presence of a black candidate at the bottom of the ballot, but I forget his name. You've got to like the chances here. GOP +1 Illinois- You've got it right, toss-up, very winnable for Ryan. And it's Barack Obama. But hey, don't forget this is Illinois. DEM +1 Colorado- I'm afraid Salazar is the prohibitive favorite. We still need to learn more about this Coors guy, but I've written this one off. DEM +1 Oklahoma- Coburn will win, if he gets the nomination. NO CHANGE CA- write this one off. NO CHANGE Wisconsin- Forget it. NO CHANGE Add: Pennsylvania: Specter is not invincible, as Jon Corzine has been pointing out. Still, the race becomes more interesting if Toomey wins and becomes a toss-up. NO CHANGE RESULT: Republicans net two seats, maybe three.

Sorry, formatting:

South Dakota- Close, but definitely leaning Daschle. South Dakotans love their pork. NO CHANGE

Alaska- You've got this one right. Lisa will win. Knowles has never had to go head-to-head against anyone. By the way, John Lindauer, his first opponent as governor who had to drop out of the race, is the father of that crazy Lindauer woman in Takoma Park, Md. who was arrested for espionage. NO CHANGE

North Carolina- Advantage for Burr over Bowles, but it's probably only a three or four point margin. GOP +1

South Carolina- Condon could win a runoff against Beasley. Either way, I think ultimately the Bush margin and her own liberalism will kill Tennenbaum. GOP +1

Georgia- The only question here is which Republican it will be. Isakson is a moderate-liberal Republican. I think Mac Collins is hopeless, but if he and Herman Cain can hold Isakson under 50%, I think one of the conservatives could win a no-holds-barred runoff. We're better off with Miller than with Isakson, so this race could be a loss. GOP +1

Florida- If Deutsch is the nominee, it's a cakewalk. If Castor, it's tough, but she does have some splaining to do, also on this "get Rush" business. McCollum will be the GOP nominee almost for sure. Dems are going to be hurting for money with all these southern states, so maybe I'll punt and call TOSSUP.

Louisiana- Vitter will definitely place first in the jungle primary, but the rest of the story is unclear. Buddy Roemer (R.) is talking about getting in. That might sound bad, but he could actually cause a two-Republican runoff, since right now he polls just ahead of both John and Kennedy. The Dems are hurt by the presence of a black candidate at the bottom of the ballot, but I forget his name. You've got to like the chances here. GOP +1

Illinois- You've got it right, toss-up, very winnable for Ryan. And it's Barack Obama. But hey, don't forget this is Illinois. DEM +1

Colorado- I'm afraid Salazar is the prohibitive favorite. We still need to learn more about this Coors guy, but I've written this one off. DEM +1

Oklahoma- Coburn will win, if he gets the nomination. NO CHANGE

CA- write this one off. NO CHANGE

Wisconsin- Forget it. NO CHANGE

Add:
Pennsylvania: Specter is not invincible, as Jon Corzine has been pointing out. Still, the race becomes more interesting if Toomey wins and becomes a toss-up. NO CHANGE

RESULT: Republicans net two seats, maybe three.

George Nethercutt has proven himself to be even more inept that the airhead he's running against. People worried about his eastern Washington base, so what does he do? Moves to the Seattle area so he can call himself a local. It doesn't change that he's never won an election in the Puget Sound area, but does show that he has no loyalty to his hometown. In other words, he alienated his home base and gained nothing in return. Brilliant.

He's moving to the Seattle area so he can introduce himself to the voters there. Hardly a stupid move, in fact it's probably essential. East Washington alone can't cancel out Seattle. Who else are we going to get? Slade Gorton for the umpteenth time?

When I said I was worried about Nethercutt's eastern Washington base, I meant they worried that its relative isolation from the Puget Sound media market was a liability. I did a poor job of articulating that--my mistake. But Nethercutt didn't have to carpetbag from his home town to introduce himself to new voters. That's what rallies and advertising do. All it did was show was crass opportunism. And while he survived his broken term-limits promise in 2000, it still did some damage to his image. The move just compounded that and gave Patty Murray more ammunition. I don't like Patty Murray any more than you do: she's a looney-left moron. That's why I wish Republicans had a better candidate.

By the way, I agree with your analysis of the race in Florida. Mel Martinez's candidacy is a recruiting triumph.

I wish Jennifer Dunn was our candidate too, but considering that she's not (and retiring from the house at that), Nethercutt's the second best option. Who else we got?

Well, we have Doc Hastings, who's also an eastern Congressman, we have Sam Reed, the Secretary of State, who's the most boring person I've ever met in my life, Dave Richert would have been nice, but at least he's saving Jennifer Dunn's house seat for us. Other then that, we have state reps and state sens. Washington's R's arn't exactly deep.

I don't share your issue with him moving to the other side of the state. I don't think most people will see it as carpet bagging at all, just common sense. If most of your campaigning is gonna be west of the mountains, why spend 5 hrs driving or the money on flying to and from Spokane? Believe me, I live here. Nobody in their right mind would live in eastern Washington if they were planning on spending most of their time in the west.

Anyhow, I've been encouraged by most of the signs I've seen from his campaign. It seems clear to me he isn't going to lay down like Linda Smith did, he's gonna swing at Murray all the way to election day, which is what's reqired. Her re-elect numbers that keep falling encourage me even more.

Don't get me wrong, it's an uphill battle, but all the signs here are pointing to a real dogfight, and we have a better chance at coming out on top then most seem to think.

Being from Western Washington, our slate of potential Senate candidates was very limited. We have a number of former office holders, Congressmen Linda Smith, Rick White, Randy Tate, Dan Evans, John Spellman, Jack Metcalf, but I hate dusting off old relics if we can't find someone (that is a D trick Lautenberg/Mondale). Sam Reed could have made Murray run for her money, but he is pretty dull. John Staton, Herbold, Reichart, Dunn would have been stronger candidates, but bypassed the run. Office holders from Eastern Washington cannot generally win state wide. I hope for Nethercutt, but I don't see a lot of promise. We are starved for good candidates in this state.
Moving to Western Washington was, I agree, a good step to addressing the East-West divide.

I live in Western Washington as well.

I don't mind dusting off old candidates if they are real cadidates, and frankly, none of the ones you mentioned are. Linda Smith was a decent congresswoman, but she's history after losing so badly to Patty Murray last time. Rick White lost because he lost the support of his base, (oh, wait, I changed my mind, I'm pro-gun control and pro-choice [Death] now, and I'm also leaving my wife for a younger woman), Randy Tate served one term that he somehow got in the 94 sweeps (a complete fluke), Jack Metcaf, as good of man as he is, (and never having lost) is REALLY old in body if not in years (not sure exactly how old in years he is). I saw him in '02. I'm not imagining he's in any better shape now, he's in no condition to run even if he wanted to, which I seriously doubt. Same for Evans and Speilman.

I don't think Reed would have been much competition for Murray. He's just too boring. OK for Sec. of State, the race is low profile, but in a high profile race like this, no way. Bob Herbold would be OK I guess, but other then his wife being the chairperson of King County Republicans and being rich, what else does he have?. Richert at least is saving Dunn's seat for us (and, I may add, is probably eyeing either Maria Cantwell's seat or Gov. in '08 if Rossi loses, which, I might add, would open this seat up for Rossi to take.)

In a perfect world, Rossi would be running for Dunn's seat, Dunn would be running for Senate, and Richert for Gov.

Anyhow, given that I'm awake now, I'm not as pessimistic about Nethercutt as you. He's a firece campaigner, and he's slayed giants before (FORMER Speaker of the House Tom Foley), and I like the signs I've seen from his campaign. The Bare Knucks aproach is what it's gonna take, and he's ready to do it. Murray's re-elect numbers are encouraging (38 or 39% last time I saw them). I'd say Nethercutt has a 45% chance of winning. Underdog still, but not that big of one.

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