Election 2006--The Hill's Five State Political Coverage

The Hill ^ | November 22, 2005

[Clintonfatigued]

Key races in Connecticut, Florida, Maryland, Michigan, and Washington State are covered.

[Clintonfatigued]

Connecticut
Connecticut’s three House Republicans — Christopher Shays, Nancy Johnson and Rob Simmons — were among 14 GOP members who voted against the $50 billion in spending curbs that exposed fractures in party leadership over the past several weeks.

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The three centrists all face viable reelection challengers who are certain to use the budget-reconciliation votes in campaign messaging. But Shays’s Democratic foe, Westport Selectwoman Diane Farrell, is focusing for now on another recent GOP setback, the labor-health and human services (HHS) conference report that went down to defeat after 22 Republicans defected to vote no with the Democrats.

Johnson and Simmons were among those voting against the labor-HHS spending bill, which included cuts to No Child Left Behind and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, while Shays voted with most of his party. Farrell’s campaign released a list of “lowlights” from the labor-HHS bill, accompanied by a statement calling the conference report “wrongheaded” and “mean-spirited.”

“Every time he votes, Chris makes clear that his priorities are the same as the Republican leaders, and [President] George W. Bush’s,” Farrell said.
— Elana Schor

Florida
Several leading Republicans who had bowed out of the Senate race in Florida are taking a second look, with last week’s Quinippiac University poll showing Rep. Katherine Harris (R) trailing Sen. Bill Nelson (D) by 24 points and her campaign manager leaving.

Florida Speaker Allan Bense, Reps. Dave Weldon and Ginny Brown-Waite and former Senate contender Daniel Webster are all said to be considering bids, a Republican source familiar with Florida political circles said.

Bense, who had said he would not run, raised some eyebrows earlier this month when he issued a statement praising the president’s selection of Judge Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court.

Republicans had avoided getting into the race because polls had shown Harris easily beating all of them in mock match-ups. But those same polls also showed Harris doing the worst of all prominent Republicans against Nelson, who is in his first term.
— Peter Savodnik

Maryland
By jumping into the race to succeed retiring Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D-Md.), Joshua Rales, a multimillionaire resident of Bethesda, Md., could thwart the conventional wisdom that the race is Rep. Ben Cardin or Kweisi Mfume’s to lose.

Rales plans to announce his candidacy in January and has budgeted $7 million of his fortune for the race, said his campaign manager, Robin Rorapaugh.

Rales has hired top Democratic media consultant David Doak, who has worked for Sarbanes, Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.) and Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.).

Rales also tapped pollster Paul Maslin, who worked for Howard Dean in 2004.

Allan Lichtman, an American University history professor, and Lisa Van Susteren, a forensic psychiatrist, are also running.
— Jonathan E. Kaplan

Michigan
The Rev. Keith Butler has been knocked out of first place in the GOP Senate primary by county sheriff and former state lawmaker Mike Bouchard, according to a new Republican poll to be released today.

The Strategic Vision survey, largely conducted over the weekend, shows that 23 percent of Republican voters back Bouchard; 19 percent, Butler; and 17 percent another pastor, Jerry Zandstra.

“Bouchard enters the race as the front-runner at this moment, taking a large portion of Butler’s support,” Strategic Vision CEO David E. Johnson said. “Zandstra’s support is more committed to their candidate, and Bouchard’s entry into the race did not affect his standing, as it did Butler’s. The question is where will the undecided voters go.”

Republicans have privately complained that Butler, who is also a former Detroit city councilman, cannot beat Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), even as they have endorsed the candidate. Other prominent Republicans earlier bowed out of the race, including Domino’s Pizza CEO Dave Brandon.

Bouchard had said his health would prevent him from running. But when he launched his Senate bid this month, he said he had fully recovered. He did not elaborate on his medical condition or what had troubled him in the first place.
— Peter Savodnik

Washington
The two Democrats vying to take on freshman Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Wash.) have new ammunition to work with in the wake of the House’s contentious debate over budget reconciliation, which Reichert voted against before he voted in favor.

Reichert was the only Republican to oppose the rule providing for consideration of the spending-cut package, which he ultimately voted to support. Opposing the rule is considered a strategic mistake for any member of the majority, but Reichert said he cast his vote to put his leadership on notice that he was displeased with the bill’s cuts to child-support enforcement.

“It was making a statement … I’m serious about this,” Reichert said. “Part of what I’m doing is working with leadership to make sure [the cuts] are taken out in conference.” The Senate’s budget reconciliation bill does not touch child support funding.

Despite his seemingly contradictory votes, Reichert said he would vote in favor of the budget-reconciliation conference report when it comes back to the House floor, possibly next month, unless it contains a provision opening Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling.
— Elana Schor

Sen. Maria Cantwell’s (D-Wash.) GOP challenger, Mike McGavick, is close to the $1 million mark in fundraising, according to his campaign manager, Ian Goodhew.

McGavick, however, still has a long way to go to reach Cantwell’s $3.8 million. On Nov. 29, McGavick’s supporters plan to hold another fundraising luncheon. Since late October, when McGavick announced his official run, he has had at least eight fundraising lunches, Goodhew said.

His “longtime friends” are hosting the Nov. 29 event, and participants are not required to donate. “If people are inclined to contribute, the merrier,” said Goodhew.

Even though Cantwell and McGavick could turn out to be bitter opponents, they are on the same page when it comes to limiting oil-tanker traffic in Puget Sound. Cantwell has threatened to filibuster legislation introduced by Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), chairman of the Commerce Committee, that would overturn 28-year-old protections. The Alaska senator’s proposal would allow BP’s Cherry Point refinery in Whatcom County to become a massive export terminal for giant oil tankers, increasing the company’s profits and giving little to Washington state in return, Cantwell argued.

McGavick, who was in Washington last week, met with Stevens on short notice to discuss the issue and to tell him that the idea is a nonstarter, according to Goodhew. At the same time, McGavick wanted to talk to Stevens about gas prices. In the end, McGavick and Stevens hope to achieve the same goal, decreasing the cost of gas, Goodhew said.
— Roxana Tiron

[MassachusettsGOP]

Nancy Johnson-Not in Trouble, won last 3 elections comfortably

Rob Simmons-Not in Trouble, was a DNC target in 2002, and 2004 after upsetting Congressman Sam Gejdenson in 2000 (D), and survived relatively comfortably in both elections.

Chris Shays-Possibly in Trouble, again. Loses support every year, only beat his current opponent 52-48 in 2004.

[Dan from Michigan]

It's now a legit 3 way race in Michigan. If things go the way they are now, I actually think Zandstra (Who came out of nowhere at the Mackinac conference) may be the primary winner.

Bouchard and Butler are both from Oakland County and will probably take votes from each other. Zandstra is from the west side and is also running well up north.

[fieldmarshaldj]

It's really a shame Rev. Butler is getting screwed like he is. :-(

[Coop]

Rales plans to announce his candidacy in January and has budgeted $7 million of his fortune for the race, said his campaign manager, Robin Rorapaugh. Rales has hired top Democratic media consultant David Doak, who has worked for Sarbanes, Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.) and Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.).

Excellent! Bring on a bloody primary. This northern Virginian is already on Michael Steele's E-mail and volunteer list. While I would still have to rate him as an underdog, I do like his chances to steal this seat.

The racism, robbery and political dirty tricks may give him a little sympathy (although it would likely fade before November), but I think it's certainly raised his profile.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I think ultimately, we probably want to see Frizzell Grey get the 'Rat nomination.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"It's really a shame Rev. Butler is getting screwed like he is. :-( "

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I hear you. I'd like to hear the explanation of those Republicans who supposedly believe that Butler cannot defeat Stabenow. If Butler---who would cut into the Democrat advantage among black voters more than any potential GOP candidate in Michigan, while simultaneously energizing conservative voters---can't beat Stabenow, who the heck can?

President Bush got 47.81% in Michigan despite getting less than 10% of the black vote---if Butler can keep the Bush vote while getting a mere 25% of the black vote, he would win the election.

BTW, Liddy Dole and her National Republican Senatorial Committee is supporting Bouchard over Butler. Given the NRSC's disgusting behavior in the Rhode Island Senate race, where it has run sleazy ads against moderate-to-conservative Republican Stephen Laffey as part of a campaign to prop up ultraliberal RINO Lincoln Chafee, I think it's only a matter of time before they start attacking Reverend Butler in sleazy ads. Expect highschool pictures of him in an Afro, lies about his position on the issues, and allegations that his ministry is just a money-making scheme. After what they did to Laffey, I've had enough with the NRSC (to which I had donated in the past), and just yesterday I returned my "membership card" cut up into little pieces with a terse statement that their behavior towards Messrs. Laffey and Butler made it impossible for me to support the group, and that I am instead sending money to Laffey and Butler (which I have).

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Chris Shays-Possibly in Trouble, again. Loses support every year, only beat his current opponent 52-48 in 2004."

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His district gave President Bush 46% last year, and 2006 will be a much better year for CT Republicans (especially RINOs, unfortunately) than 2004, since there is no presidential race and RINO Governor Rell will probably be coasting to reelection (although one year is several political lifetimes). And even if the decrease in turnout in a non-presidential year affects the Republicans and Democrats proportionally (which it won't---more Democrats will stay home than Republicans), it would be a cinch for Shays to get the extra 4% above the Bush vote that he needs to win. Farrell may keep it close again (although I would be willing to wager that she won't break 45%), but she won't win.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I think ultimately, we probably want to see Frizzell Grey get the 'Rat nomination."

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Absolutely. While former Congressman Kweisi Mfume (née Frizzell Grey) would not be a pushover in the general election in heavily Democrat Maryland, his nomination would mean that Lt. Gov. Michale Steele would be favored to become the first Republican since 1980 (and the first conservative since what, the 1950s?) to win a Senate race in Maryland. Blacks comprise around 40% of the Democrat primary electorate in Maryland, and if Mfume is the lone black candidate against 4 or 5 white candidates (each with his or her own geographic or ideological base), he might be able to beat frontrunner Congressman Ben Cardin in the primary (if Cardin were to win, he'd be a slight favorite against Steele in the general).

[AuH2ORepublican]

Sorry, I meant to write the Reverend Mr. Butler, not "Reverend Butler."

[fieldmarshaldj]

Check yer mail. ;-)

[fieldmarshaldj]

I have to wonder at what point is Shays going to see a good % of the GOP base in his district decide to give him the middle finger, just as he has given the mainstream of the party, and deprive him of a general election win. I believe that a decent enough % is already voting for the Democrat out of protest (no numbers to back it up, just a gut feeling) and has been for the past several cycles. In a district like that, he still ought to be clearing 60%, not barely clearing the hurdle (and, yet, he still believes pandering to the left will win him MORE votes !). I'm not going to shed a single tear when he gets ousted.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Well, we do have to be careful with whomever is nominated and take advantage of it accordingly. Assuming either dear Kweisi "60 childruns out of wedlock" Mfume or Benjamin "Been in elective office since my Bris" Cardin gets the nod, each presents us with a challenge. If Kweisi gets it, Steele probably won't be able to count on many beyond 10% of the Black vote, and will have to run as if he's a White candidate - effectively scaring the state into voting against the DuBois/Garvey radical. If Cardin gets the nomination, Steele will have to reach for Kweisi's voters and point to the fact that despite being a huge percentage of the 'Rat voting base, the party still wouldn't nominate a Black man for high office (which should net him a higher % of their vote, perhaps 30%), though will also equally have to appeal to White 'Rats who wouldn't vote for Mfume but would vote for Cardin while holding all the GOP voters. He should also exploit the fact that Cardin has been sucking at the public teet for 42 straight years - he went right from college to the legislature, Speaker of the House, Congress... has never been in the private sector, etc., and being in his mid 60s, isn't going to being accrueing much in the way of seniority in the Senate as a freshman minority backbencher (leaving a relatively safe House seat after 20 years is pretty stupid, too, and rarely ever is done for obvious reasons).

Indeed, if Steele gets to the Senate, he will be the first "Republican" since Charles "Mac" Mathias was elected to his final term in 1980 (though the RINO Mathias was just as liberal as Sarbanes and pondered pulling a Jeffords before his term ran out, stopped only because there weren't enough 'Rats to flip control). The last closer-to-the-norm Republican elected was J. Glenn Beall, Jr. in 1970 (who lost badly to Sarbanes in '76), who was a moderate (not a full-out liberal). The last bonafide, "I apologize for none of my beliefs" GOP Conservative Senator was the legendary John Marshall Butler, elected to his 2nd and final term in 1956. Butler was considered during his last term to be the most Conservative member of the Senate. Alas, that horrid hag Mikulski occupies the seat Sen. Butler held.

[Clintonfatigued]

I certainly hope so. He is the weakest candidate in the bunch.

Personally, I think that a substantial number of African-American voters privately intend to support Steele but aren't telling anyone, including the pollsters.

[Clintonfatigued]

Elizabeth Dole has been a miserable failure as NRSC Chairwoman. Even if Republicans gain seats in the Senate, she shouldn't get a second term.

[MassachusettsGOP]

Well the 4th CT district is comprised of the Democratic slums of Norwich, Stamford, and Bridgeport. Outside of these towns only one voted against him in 2004, and that was yuppy-Westport, home of Farrell. However, the big populations of Norwich, Stamford, and Bridgeport are partly responsible for keeping his margin of victory low, as they will never vote for an "R".

[zbigreddogz]

I don't have an opinion on most of these races, but since I'm from Washington, I'll wager that

A. Reichert will not lose, and it probably won't be close. He's got a good image in the district, and has been sufficently conservative to please all but the unappeasables, and sufficiently moderate to keep swing voters. I already know some D leaning friends of mine who didn't support him in 2004 that are planning on doing so in 2006.

B. Cantwell will ultimately win, but it'll be a major headache for the D's. An upset is possible, but unlikely. McGavick doesn't have Rossi's style, and Cantwell doesn't have Gregorie's bagage, and it's a national election. Then again, Slade 'Boring as Dirt' Gorton won here 3 times, so who knows?