Poll shows Congerssman Charlie Taylor behind behind in race for U.S. House

Public Policy Polling ^ | May 24, 2006

[Clintonfatigued]

According to a Public Policy Polling survey released today, likely voters in North Carolina's Eleventh Congressional District, are unhappy with the direction of the country, the President, and Republican Congressman Charles Taylor.

If the election were held today, voters say that they would vote to elect Democratic challenger Heath Schuler, 46% to 42%. When leaners are added the margin remains at 4 percent, 49% to 45%.

[HitmanLV]

The GOP could turn it around. It would help if they actually tried, of course. :-)

[saganite]

I'm in Taylor's district (as is congressman billybob). If Taylor loses here in a conservative district the Republican party nationwide is in serious trouble.

[ContemptofCourt]

To Heath Schuler, too boot. Wow if accurate.

[Clintonfatigued]

There is bias in this poll, but Charlie Taylor has mostly himself to blame for his poor showing. Another Republican candidate would probably poll better.

[Clintonfatigued]

btt

[ContemptofCourt]

44% repub, 37% dem, 19% other. What is the makeup of this district compared to the poll stats?

[Kuksool]

Taylor would have made things a lot easier if he just reitred. In fact, our House prospects would be better if a few Congresscritters retired.

[Congressman Billybob]

Actually, I disagree sharply with your conclusions. If Taylor loses in the 11th District of NC, it will mean nothing about the fate of GOP candidates nationally. As I have said from the beginning, Taylor is damaged goods, and even some Republicans are concluding that.

The fact that I drew 20% against Taylor in the Republican primary, while spending less than $25,000 (chump change in the political world), indicates that Taylor cannot even hold his base. Self-evidently, he will not be able to attract a majority of the "undeclared" voters, nor a smattering of "Zell Miller" Democrats, that he needs to win for the ninth time.

In short, if Taylor loses, it will be, as Smith Barney says, "the old fashioned way. He earned it." See my post script for what may happen if Taylor gets indicted in the next few months, either on the Abramoff matter, the Russian bank matter, or other issues.

P.S. New info. My primary is over, but because of legal and ethical problems, the incumbent may withdraw/be forced out. He is also losing in the latest poll (5/28) to the Democrat challenger. I seek to be the replacement nominee. For more information see my website. I still need your help.

Congressman Billybob

Latest article: "Ray Nagin -- 'Good and Hard' "

[saganite]

Your link isn't working.

[saganite]

If he withdraws or is forced out how would a replacement be selected? In any case, if he's forced to withdraw I expect Shuler to be a shoo in.

[Congressman Billybob]

Yes, I agree wholeheartedly with both of you. I would poll better against Shuler than Taylor is doing. As I said in the last line of my speech to the 11th District Republican Convention a month ago, "I will beat Heath Shuler like a rented mule."

I may still get the chance to do that, perhaps in 2006, more likely in 2008.

John / Billybob

[Congressman Billybob]

You have just pointed out another aspect of this poll which is very bad news for Taylor. In the makeup of the District, the Democrats have about a 2% edge in registration. (The District still votes solidly conservative, since a significant number of the Democrats are "Zell Miller" ones, who have no use for the "Asheville liberals," as they say.

If the sample had been in accord with the registration of the District, Shuler would have been above 50% (with the "leaners" thrown in). That is fatal news for a 16-year incumbent, that a lightweight neophyte Democrat is that far ahead, this far before the election. And I expect that the news for Taylor will get even worse as this election progresses through the summer.

If Taylor drops out, or is forced out (think Democrat Senator Torricelli in New Jersey in 2004), I can beat Shuler if I have two months remaining to run. If not, I can beat Shuler in 2008.

Shuler claims to be "a conservative." But by 2008 he will have shown his true striped by voting for Nancy Pelosi for Minority Leader in the House, and by indicating that he will support the Democrat nominee for President, even if that is Hillary Clinton. Folks hereabouts do not take kindly to either Pelosi or Clinton (him or her).

I invite everyone interested in this thread to visit my campaign website, per the address in the tagline.

John Armor (aka Congressman Billybob)

[Congressman Billybob]

Go to the main site for the polling company. Then click the link for Polling Results. The first item to come up will be the 11th District poll. It's in pdf, but you can print it out, as I just have.

John / Billybob

[Kuksool]

Shuler is blessed with the fact that he never held a poltical office before. Thus he can say all things to all people. Should Schuler win this fall, I think the GOP challenger in 2008 will be aided by Liddy Dole running for re-election and the Presidential race, esp if Hillary is running.

[Congressman Billybob]

The legal mechanism to replace a nominee who withdraws, is this: The 11th District Republican Committee will choose the replacement nominee. They are not required to select the person who placed second to Taylor in the primary (which is me). They are free to choose anyone they want.

Do not assume that Shuler is a shoo-in if Taylor withdraws. Shuler's entire strategy since he first announced a year ago is to run against the damaged goods of Taylor. He has no real content to his campaign except that he's young, good-looking, and isn't Taylor. That's it.

Shuler was born the year I first ran for public office. He was a toddler when I won my first case in the US Supreme Court. I have decades of experience in local, state and national government. He has zip.

With two months to run, I can beat Heath Shuler hands down. He's no shoo-in against anyone except Charles Taylor. Also, expect this campaign to get really dirty if Charlie stays in the race. That's Charlie's pattern as a race comes down to the wire and he feels genuinely threatened.

John / Billybob

[southernnorthcarolina]

Taylor trailing in the polls is not all bad news. He is, even by many nonpartisan accounts, ethically challenged. It wouldn't be such a bad idea to purge him from the body politic; my only reservation is that it is (barely) possible that this race could determine which party is in control -- and Rep. Taylor, for all his shortcomings, at least votes "right" for the most part, and surely would when it comes to electing the House leadership.

But that's a risk I'd take. The odds of the House majority coming down to this race are long indeed.

NC-11 isn't all that conservative. It certainly leans conservative and Republican, as most Southern mountain areas, coal mining areas excepted, do. But there are a couple of rural Dem counties, and more significantly the rather bohemian city of Asheville, to cut into the traditional mountain Republicanism. But should Schuler be elected this year, the odds are good he'd fumble the ball (again), and be a one-term wonder, especially if the '08 Dem presidential nominee is Hillary! or another liberal. And that, to me, bodes well for Congressman Billybob.

[saganite]

I keep hearing about all the Abramof challenged congressmen but no names so far. Presumably the charges will come close enough to the election so as to prevent any chance of recovery by the candidates charged or allow for competitive replacements. I'm guessing we'll see a whole slew of indictments (in the press if not in the courts) in Oct.

[GeorgefromGeorgia]

I used to live in the DC area, and Heath Schuler never seemed like the sharpest knife in the drawer.

[xzins]

to Heath Shuler

My folks are from Swain County, and all of the locals, of course, attended Swain High. Heath Shuler rose to cult status during his time there. To pretend that he isn't a factor is to pretend a misconception that will hurt the GOP.

The GOP would have done far better to have recruited Shuler before the Rats did.

Heath had a reputation as a solid, out-spoken Christian in High School. In all of the surrounding counties, you must understand that Heath and his high school team came in and graciously handed them their heads for a number of years in a row, and they went on to the state championship under his leadership. By that time, they were all rooting for the kid who had beat them.

You must also understand that the Democrats of this mountain area do NOT hold to national democratic values...at least not publicly.

If this young man is still that young man, then someone should ask him straight up: "Is abortion OK in the eyes of Jesus?" They should have a tape recorder and a number of witnesses on hand at that time. My guess, though, is that Shuler will say, "NO."