Posted on 04/24/2008 2:36:38 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Given recent results in congressional elections and current polls, and given the beating we took in 2006, there is significant concern that 2008 will result in the Democrats making sweeping gains in the House and Senate.
Given the electoral history of the past few decades, I believe that the fears of Democrats picking up an additional 5 or more seats in the Senate, or 20 or more seats in the House, are WAY overstated, PROVIDED McCain wins by a few points or more in November.
Why? I surveyed the Senate elections occuring in presidential years. In no year at least since 1928 (as far back as I looked) did the party winning the popular vote of the presidency lose more than 3 seats (only one year was it 3--1940), while in 2000, the popular-vote losing, but electoral-vote winning party lost 4 seats. On the other hand, there are plenty of years in which the winning party did lose a seat or two (1996, 1972). And several years where the winning party won several seats.
Our large Senate class ressembles most the large, vulnerable GOP classes of 1986 and 2000, or the large Democratic class of 1940. So no chance of any major GOP gains.
I bet very similar numbers could be found in looking at House elections.
Apart from the presidential year advantage, there is still another reason to doubt the repeat of 2006-style gains :it's very difficult to have back-to-back sweeping gains in Congress. I think Roosevelt pulled it off from '32 through '36, but other than then, I can't think of any two successive cycles in each of which a party won large numbers of seats in both House and Senate. Why? Pendelums have a tendency to swing and all that.
Given that the Democrats look determined to nominate the least experienced, the most far-left candidate they've ever nominated, I'm cautiously optimistic that McCain will win by 5 points or more, and that therefore, the Democrats will pick up one or two seats in the Senate and maybe a handful of seats in the House.
(2010, on the other hand, may be a different story, especially if the recession continues).
Of course, if Obama should win by a landslide, then Democratic dreams (like our dreams in those heady days of 2005) of a filibuster-proof majority may not be so vain.
But come January 2009, expect a President McCain, with narrow Democratic margins in the House and Senate.
Here is Tucson, we've got a Democrat Congresswoman in a Republican district. With McCain on the ticket, there is a good chance the Republican candidate for the seat will win (he is currently the State Senate President)
This article does not mention the fact that so many GOP congressmen are quitting.
Also, assume McCain wins. With a full-blown motgage crisis, $200/barrel oil, lost jobs, and the possibility that the war will continue or worsen, the voters could punish the GOP in 2010.
Chaos will ensue, cats sleeping with dogs. Where are all the positive Reagan conservatives? But your "War will worsen or continue" gives you away. Back to DU you miserable negative little troll
There will be a lot of one-hit wonders in 08.
well, I am voting against my incumbant democrat congressmembers.
LLS
The GOP could have been defining Dems for a long time now.
For whatever reason, they choose not to.
I see nothing that leads me to believe anything will change.
You nailed this one.
LLS
What I said was the possibility that the war will continue or worsen. I hope that the war will go very well.
Learn to read.
I voted for Reagan, and Bush, and Dole, and Bush, but McCain is no Reagan.
Sorry, I don't see where McCain, even with a big victory, brings anything to the GOP table.
So, now McCain is considered to be the favorite to win in November? Unless the economy improves dramatically and McQueeg starts treating the Democrats the same way he treats Republicans, either the Beast or Osama beats him easily.
really? he carried their water for so long. and one of the reasons mccain won is that RUsh didnt endorse anyone, I think he would've made a difference.
LLS
I am sorry I haven’t been following Rush, what’s he doing? the trick where conservates registers as democrats and vote for hillary?
Nightmare scenario; McBoob in the oval office and the Dems retaining control of one or both houses.
Sounds plausible.
How many seats did the winner candidate’s party have to defend in each of those years surveyed? I think this year the GOP has a very large number it is defending.
LLS
Given that the Democrats look determined to nominate the least experienced, the most far-left candidate they've ever nominated, I'm cautiously optimistic that McCain will win by 5 points or more, and that therefore, the Democrats will pick up one or two seats in the Senate and maybe a handful of seats in the House. (2010, on the other hand, may be a different story, especially if the recession continues). Of course, if Obama should win by a landslide, then Democratic dreams (like our dreams in those heady days of 2005) of a filibuster-proof majority may not be so vain. But come January 2009, expect a President McCain, with narrow Democratic margins in the House and Senate.Note, "our dreams of a filibuster-proof majority" indicates the partisan nature of the writer.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.