Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

RealClearPolitics Electoral College (No Toss Up States) as of 10/1/08
www.realclearpolitics.com ^ | 10/1/08 | n/a

Posted on 10/01/2008 5:09:01 PM PDT by Publius804

This is looking uglier & uglier:

Obama/Biden 353 McCain/Palin 185

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Polls
KEYWORDS: electoral; electoralcollege; poll
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100101-127 next last

1 posted on 10/01/2008 5:09:02 PM PDT by Publius804
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Publius804

I think Obama will win 100% but want to wait until the day after the election before the story is written. This isn’t pro wrestling after all.


2 posted on 10/01/2008 5:10:57 PM PDT by stevem
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Publius804

Its a bloodbath.


3 posted on 10/01/2008 5:11:58 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Publius804

OH, Its all over! I guess I’ll plan to go fishing in Costa Rica on election day. sarc.


4 posted on 10/01/2008 5:12:05 PM PDT by Bringbackthedraft (The Independents will decide this election. Be nice to them.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: stevem

I hear ya, sometimes it gets hard to stay positive.


5 posted on 10/01/2008 5:12:05 PM PDT by Publius804 (McCain-Palin '08)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Publius804

It is silly to think this is meaningful.


6 posted on 10/01/2008 5:12:13 PM PDT by greatvikingone
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Publius804

McCain just acts like he doesn’t want this thing. He is the lousiest candidate since Bob Dole.


7 posted on 10/01/2008 5:13:14 PM PDT by ought-six ( Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ought-six

IF MCCAIN goes against the bailout he’s win..


8 posted on 10/01/2008 5:13:51 PM PDT by GreaterSwiss
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Publius804

We held open the gates for McCain on this bailout bill, but he chickened out and didn’t run through.
We did everything we could for him.


9 posted on 10/01/2008 5:13:51 PM PDT by counterpunch (Jim Jones was a Community Organizer)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ought-six

Saying he’s going to vote for the bailout, and partisan/blame isn’t a good time right now, etc.

But proudly listed the Republicans he’s jailed.


10 posted on 10/01/2008 5:14:37 PM PDT by Crazieman (McWhatever-Palin '08)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Publius804

If Mc Nut vote NO on the bailout bill his numbers might go up.


11 posted on 10/01/2008 5:14:40 PM PDT by jocko12
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: ought-six

Daddy Bush campaigned against Bill Clinton the same way.


12 posted on 10/01/2008 5:15:03 PM PDT by A CA Guy ( God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Publius804

What is this, the Chicken Little thread?


13 posted on 10/01/2008 5:16:04 PM PDT by Terpfen (To all you knee-jerkers: remember Rick Santorum.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: counterpunch

Then we should do it for this great country and for Palin. I refuse that polls are actually where they are. A lot has to do with this fear of being called a racist. This should only spur us to ramp up our effort to save this country from the nightmare that will be 0bama and the rats.


14 posted on 10/01/2008 5:16:46 PM PDT by ABQHispConservative (Socialism has ruined Latin America, let's not let it ruin the USA!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: demoskowitz
IF MCCAIN goes against the bailout he’s win..

Then how come Obama who is for it is ahead
15 posted on 10/01/2008 5:17:28 PM PDT by uncbob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Publius804

If you believe this crap, then I have a swamp to sell you in AZ. There are no toss-up states? Give me a break! They are using polls with overweight given to Dems and you cannot tell me that those white democrats that are conservative are going to flock to a black liberal.

Some of you need to take a deep breath and quit paying attention to garbage polls. I am going to post this once again. In OK, a local pollster ran a poll who understands OK and had McCain up 41 points; Rasmussen ran a poll here during the same time period and had him up 28 points — look at the difference. The poll this week has McCain up 41.56 points. National pollsters do not understand states plus they are polling too many Dems/Indys and not enough Republicans to give them the figures they want.


16 posted on 10/01/2008 5:18:13 PM PDT by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER -- VOTE FOR McCAIN/PALIN2008! LetsGetThisRight.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Publius804

maybe I am just stuck in the past, but Florida, N.C., and VA going for zero?

Has America changed that much?

We are really going to vote for the most left wing, inexperienced Presidential candidate in history.

I guess that means America has become the land of the Proletarian Panty Waist Chicken-Sh!t.

Of course all of the above, requires you to believe that although the media is stretching and shilling for zero in every other area, they would not shill for zero in the polls.

I don’t know which it is, but you just have to keep your head up. I talk to people all day long and can’t find an Obama supporter that isn’t either black or a hard core lib. I don’t know any middle of the road american who is going for zero.


17 posted on 10/01/2008 5:18:49 PM PDT by johncocktoasten (Obama/Biden '08, in and of itself, A Bridge To Nowhere)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Publius804
Bwaa ha ha!! This is actually very funny. Total BS, of course, but good for a laugh. I mean, really. Look at the polls they released today to throw him over in these states -- Quiniquack and CNN polls that are MAJOR major outliers.

I'm not saying McCain isn't going to get swept by the time this is over, because I think it's going to be pretty bad, but it's not this bad right now.

Shame he doesn't come out against the now $850,000,000,000 bailout tonight. He'd win the election, but is apparently too stupid, or disrespectful of the will of the American people to come out on our side. That's our fearless leader. If he loses, no one can say he didn't earn it. Maybe we can find ourselves a conservative in 2012 and try to fix the wreckage from 2008-2012. I'm joining the NRA tomorrow.
18 posted on 10/01/2008 5:19:40 PM PDT by DRey
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ought-six

McCain’s showing and campaigning couldn’t get him elected in a high school senior class officer election. Bob Dole’s performance dances rings around McCain.


19 posted on 10/01/2008 5:19:55 PM PDT by A_Tradition_Continues (Sanitized for your protection.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: A CA Guy

Right on the money. The high horse is no place to win a fight with a thug.

However, before ya’ll give up, remember these RCP averages are using the bogus Quinnipiac polls that came out today (Obama up 15 in PA) which tilted the states big time to 0.

This is what Quinnipiac wanted.


20 posted on 10/01/2008 5:20:25 PM PDT by nhwingut (,)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Publius804

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday is unchanged from the day before with Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. This is the sixth straight day that Obama has been at 50% or 51%, the sixth straight day that McCain has been at 44% or 45%, and the sixth straight day the Obama has enjoyed a five or six point lead (see trends).


21 posted on 10/01/2008 5:20:47 PM PDT by Lady GOP
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Terpfen
What is this, the Chicken Little thread?

Nope, this is the reality thread.

22 posted on 10/01/2008 5:21:13 PM PDT by A_Tradition_Continues (Sanitized for your protection.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Terpfen

It is the chicken little thread except for a few of us who seem to figured out what is happening! Convenient for some I would say to be the sky is falling poster.


23 posted on 10/01/2008 5:21:19 PM PDT by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER -- VOTE FOR McCAIN/PALIN2008! LetsGetThisRight.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Publius804
I hear ya, sometimes it gets hard to stay positive.

I live in Minnesota. We have liberals, the Star and Tribune and the Minnesota Poll (owned by the Star and Tribune). Now the Minnesota Poll never actually polls anyone. They have the paper's editors estimate how far ahead the Democrats have to "poll" to sound believable. It saves a great deal of expense, you see.

I know there are lots of people who just want to be part of the herd. Still, I don't believe the polls. This year it's worse than ever. The electorate doesn't shift ten points in one day...period.

I'll wait until the day after the election before I will believe that Obama won.

24 posted on 10/01/2008 5:21:39 PM PDT by stevem
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: jocko12

It is obvious with the Bail Out that we have two Socialists to vote for.


25 posted on 10/01/2008 5:21:55 PM PDT by trumandogz (The Democrats are driving us to Socialism at 100 MPH -The GOP is driving us to Socialism at 97.5 MPH)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: johncocktoasten

Here’s the thing...even if you spot McCain OH,FL,VA and NV that gets him to 265 EVs. He’s going to have to win CO to win the White House and that seems increasingly unlikely. But these are weird times and weird things can happen.


26 posted on 10/01/2008 5:22:46 PM PDT by garbanzo (Government is not the solution to our problems. Government is the problem.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: counterpunch

Maybe we need to get Sarah to tie a rope around his consensus build AZZ and drag him through. He reverting right back to his RINO roots.

Pray folks he wakes up before its to late.


27 posted on 10/01/2008 5:23:02 PM PDT by Bailee
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: ought-six

For a guy with Mac’s background, he sure seems to lack “fire in the belly”.

The latest whooo-boy was the complete whiff on “hey, I don’t care if Gwen Iffil stands to make about a half million bucks if Obambi gets elected, I’m ‘SURE’ she will be professional and objective!”..

Or, even better..”this Democrat sponsored bill for SOCIALISM is just fine and dandy! I think I’ll vote FOR the 850 billion..er..trillion..er..two trillion $$s”.

I can’t BELIEVE this guy has blown what was a respectable shot at winning just 3 short weeks ago, into what sure as hell looks like a blow-out by the bad guys at this point..


28 posted on 10/01/2008 5:23:05 PM PDT by jstolzen (All it takes for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing - Edmund Burke)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Publius804

I believe these polls 100%.

You people do realize that the media onslaught on the McCain/Palin ticket has been UNRELENTLESSLY negative and they have virtually ignored Obama and Biden.

My local paper had 3 negative Palin articles on its OBITURARY page today.

This race is over unless there is a national revolt by the 30% or so fair minded Americans left who see that the fix is in.


29 posted on 10/01/2008 5:23:10 PM PDT by acsuc99
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Publius804

Last time I checked it was still 0-0, but I guess its all over. Don’t believe the Establishment press. Same as last time. I’m still getting over Kerry’s 330 electral win.

Pray for W, Gov Palin and Our Troops


30 posted on 10/01/2008 5:23:52 PM PDT by bray (It's the Corruption Stupid)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: counterpunch

He’ll actually pick up more votes if he votes for the bail out. First of all, it dampens the “fire” the media keeps hyping and gets this off of the front page. That benefits McCain.

Secondly, all this bluster by “the people” on not supporting the bailout will give way over the next several weeks as they see their investments sink or stay flat. Their will be enough poor mouthing by the media that it will eventually worry most people. The majority are wishy washy and their support for the resistence will soon turn to casting stones. Those who didn’t support it will take a beating at the polls.


31 posted on 10/01/2008 5:23:55 PM PDT by Round 9
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: garbanzo

With these new state results, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain has the edge in states with 174 votes. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 255-200 (see Quick Campaign Overview). A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary).


32 posted on 10/01/2008 5:24:14 PM PDT by Lady GOP
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: Publius804

This financial crisis is being managed by the Democrats as an election ploy, and I’m sadly beginning to believe it’s working. Their accomplices in the media have now abandoned even any faint pretense of journalistic integrity as they openly campaign for the coronation of their king.

To make matters worse, McCain is once more looking like McCain. He should have used the opportunity provided by the first debate to hammer Obama with the truth that the media will not EVER reveal, starting with the fact that Obama’s cronies are literally the drivers of the financial mess, and following up with exposure regarding Ayres and Rezko.

Unfortunately, McCain did none of this. He is once more behaving like the lukewarm mamby-pamby “bipartisan” we’ve always known him to be. He has been essentially a parrot of the left on the financial crisis, instead of standing up for what the people want. He has also squandered the Sarah Palin factor by trying to turn her into Jane McCain instead of letting her be the woman America fell in love with.

There is of course some bias in virtually all the major polls, but a good deal of this ugly trend is reality-based and we’d be wise not to deny that fact.

MM


33 posted on 10/01/2008 5:24:44 PM PDT by MississippiMan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Publius804
A month to go and Governor Palin still has a debate in couple of days. I'm sure our George Will-type "conservative" "friends" are salivating at the chance to seal the deal. (sigh)

On a positive note: Governor Palin can go back to Alaska in peace and start chatting with Todd about secession. Turn a character-killing rumor into a distinct possibility. If I were her, I would. All those resources and all that land ...

34 posted on 10/01/2008 5:25:15 PM PDT by LiberConservative ("Typical" white guy voting McCain/Palin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ABQHispConservative

I refused to believe the polls that told us how popular Bill Clinton was, and then he won a second term. I don’t know what to believe right now, and actually feel quite discouraged.


35 posted on 10/01/2008 5:25:40 PM PDT by ChocChipCookie (Homeschool like your kids' lives depend on it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: FJB2

If the bill is full of earmarks (I’ve heard it is) and John McCain votes for it, there goes his main argument differentiating him from Barack’ACORN’Obama.


36 posted on 10/01/2008 5:25:41 PM PDT by MHGinTN (Believing they cannot be deceived, they cannot be convinced when they are deceived.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: Publius804

Barry’s meeting with Bubba worked.What did he promise Bubba.He only stays one term?


37 posted on 10/01/2008 5:25:53 PM PDT by fatima (Put your lipstick on girls and go vote.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Publius804

This is simply what a state by state map would look like (roughly) if Obama really led nationally by the 5% RCP average (roughly). I would ignore it. The EC map doesn’t really matter one way or the other unless the national race was within 1.5-2% or so. If a candidate is leading by more than 2 percent nationally, it is a virtual certainty that he will also be leading in enough states to get to 270 EVs, even if you don’t know what specific states.

What you should focus on is who these pollsters are polling and are these people actually representative of likely voters. Virtually all of the pollsters are assuming that Democrats are going to have a huge and historically unprecedented turnout advantage over Republicans on election day — as much as 7-10 points or more in some polls I’ve seen recently. This is badly skewing the RCP average towards Obama, both in national polls and the state by state polls.

But in actual elections, no party has had more than a 4 point advantage in turnout in any Presidential election since 1988. Did you think that the 2006 mid-year election was horrible for the GOP? It was. You know what advantage Democrats had over Repbulicans in that election? 3 percent. That’s right, 3 percent. 37 to 34. Not 10 percent, not even 5 percent. In 2004, the highest turnout election ever in a Presidential election, neither party had any advantage in turnout. In 2000, the Democrats had a 4 point advantage — but Gore defeated Bush nationally by only 0.5% (and, of course, barely lost in the Electoral College — note that this margin is < 1.5%, but I already mentioned this earlier).


38 posted on 10/01/2008 5:26:12 PM PDT by kesg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: garbanzo

Yep and two weeks ago we were thinking is was going to be a landslide for McCain. Now its a land slide for BHO.

We know the press wants BHO and Homeless men in Ohio voting for BHO I am afraid this country will get what it deserves.


39 posted on 10/01/2008 5:26:40 PM PDT by Bailee
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: counterpunch
That is because he is more with his collegiate buddies in Congress than with the electorate. He DOES NOT believe they could be as evil as they are just for power.

JOHN! WAKE UP! YOU DIDN'T HEAR YOUR WAKE UP CALL!

vaudine

40 posted on 10/01/2008 5:27:21 PM PDT by vaudine (RO)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: PhiKapMom

We have all the cards stacked against us at this point. MSM is not going to care what Obama does has done, or will do. They have crowned him king of the USA. We have to be realistic and see what is going on. Even if the economy wasn’t going in the tank, it is hard to not win after one party is in charge for 8 years.

I took a deep breath and I know the facts are what they are. McCain doesn’t want this as bad as most of us what him to want this. We can start looking forward to a new star that has yet to be discovered in the coming years.

I understand polls can mislead, but I also know what I see in my own very conservative neighborhood, church and work place. Obama has the win with most of them. Do not forget I am in TT land. Guns UP!


41 posted on 10/01/2008 5:27:31 PM PDT by JFC
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Bailee

Wait a minute...

Polls tell us that McCain leads among suburban voters (which outnumber city voters), white voters, (which outnumber blacks), folks over 50 (who are more reliable than youth and come out in larger numbers.) McCain’s got the evangelical vote.

I am not believing these polls. I just don’t see this guy connecting with the middle class.


42 posted on 10/01/2008 5:30:01 PM PDT by Jaguarmike
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies]

To: ABQHispConservative

We’ll all vote for McCain, but he passed up the opportunity to show leadership and independence from Bush when he decided to tepidly go along with the Washington mindset, and that hurt him with undecided voters.

0bama was able to get away with that, but McCain couldn’t because of the Republicans’ weaker standing on the economy with voters.


43 posted on 10/01/2008 5:30:15 PM PDT by counterpunch (Jim Jones was a Community Organizer)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: MississippiMan

Mac missed HUGE chances to attack Obambi in the 1st debate - particularly on the Economy. THAT is the issue people CARE about (rightly or wrongly).

McCain is far, far stronger and more experienced than The One on foreign affairs. But, to all but the most seasoned of us political junkies / news hounds, few “main street” Americans care. They are too wrapped up in their own issues to be concerned about Iran, NK, Russia, etc - even if those ARE far, far bigger problems than anything else we face.

If he doesn’t kick in the afterburners and start going AFTER these guys, I’m afraid we are toast.

We are playing nice guy at this point, vs. FIGHTING FOR IT.

I for one am pretty disheartened by that.


44 posted on 10/01/2008 5:30:24 PM PDT by jstolzen (All it takes for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing - Edmund Burke)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: uncbob
IF MCCAIN goes against the bailout he’s win..
Then how come Obama who is for it is ahead
Do I really have to answer this? A $700 billion boondogle that GREATLY increases the power of central bankers. Liberals love it, conservatives hate it.
But really what's happened is that McCain managed to not just be unpopular but seemingly ineffective as well. He lists as his accomplishment "I got 40+ Republicans to vote for an unpopular bill, but it did not pass". Way to go, dude. Really worth suspending your campaign for that one.
The saddest part of all is he could have proposed an economic recovery bill that didn't centralise power and that didn't need $700 of new debt and would have been in far better shape whether or not it actually passed.
45 posted on 10/01/2008 5:30:24 PM PDT by TennesseeProfessor
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: johncocktoasten

It is all smoke and mirrors. Obama isn’t going to win FL, NC, or even VA, it just won’t happen. He also won’t get Ohio or Indiana. This is going to be a fairly close election that will be decided by which way Colorado goes I think. McCain needs to remind voters of Obama’s racist church he attended for 20 plus years. If he does that then Obama will lose guaranteed.


46 posted on 10/01/2008 5:30:24 PM PDT by apt4truth
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: kesg

Very well said and I agree 110%


47 posted on 10/01/2008 5:30:27 PM PDT by sierrahome (I am pro choice on light bulbs)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: ChocChipCookie

Well, from what I remember Clinton had Perot in the mix, and he pulled quite a chunk of the electorate. Plus, who was and is telling us Clinton was the best thing since white bread... the media. Furthermore, if Clinton was so great and we were in a golden age during the Clinton years, why did Gore lose?

If you give in to despair, then all is lost. Don’t give in to despair. It’s not, can we win, it’s by how much will we win. Keep your chin up, and keep fighting for victory.


48 posted on 10/01/2008 5:31:56 PM PDT by ABQHispConservative (Socialism has ruined Latin America, let's not let it ruin the USA!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: MississippiMan

Mac missed HUGE chances to attack Obambi in the 1st debate - particularly on the Economy. THAT is the issue people CARE about (rightly or wrongly).

McCain is far, far stronger and more experienced than The One on foreign affairs. But, to all but the most seasoned of us political junkies / news hounds, few “main street” Americans care. They are too wrapped up in their own issues to be concerned about Iran, NK, Russia, etc - even if those ARE far, far bigger problems than anything else we face.

If he doesn’t kick in the afterburners and start going AFTER these guys, I’m afraid we are toast.

We are playing nice guy at this point, vs. FIGHTING FOR IT.

I for one am pretty disheartened by that.


49 posted on 10/01/2008 5:32:08 PM PDT by jstolzen (All it takes for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing - Edmund Burke)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: Lady GOP
With these new state results, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain has the edge in states with 174 votes. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 255-200 (see Quick Campaign Overview). A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary).

This tells me right away that something about Rasmussen's numbers are totally out of whack. If he really thinks Obama is leading nationally by six points or whatever it was, there is no way that he wouldn't also be well above 300 EVs in the state by state polling. A six percent lead is virtually landslide territory in the electoral college, especially if the Democrat is leading.

Either his state by state polling is out of whack or his national numbers are out of whack. Or both.

50 posted on 10/01/2008 5:32:51 PM PDT by kesg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100101-127 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson