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Your Daily ‘Can This Be True?’ Polls (Dingell Down by 4 in MI, Abercrombie tied for HI Gov)
National Review Online ^ | 10/8/2010 | Jim Geraghty

Posted on 10/08/2010 5:32:18 AM PDT by Palmetto Patriot

It seems each day brings some poll almost too good to be true for Republicans.

In Michigan:

A new independent poll has the dean of the U.S. House, Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich., trailing his Republican opponent, Rob Steele, by 4 percentage points.

The automated phone survey of 300 people in the 15th Congressional District shows Steele getting 43.8 percent of the vote while Dingell, a Dearborn Democrat and the longest-serving member of Congress, at 39.5 percent and undecided voters at 11 percent. The gap is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points. The poll was conducted Monday.

Dingell’s campaign said the survey – conducted by the Rossman Group of Lansing and Team TelCom – is a Republican front and is contradicted by other polls in recent weeks.

That sample size is a bit small, but even if Steele is a few points behind that number, he’s still in really good shape for a GOP challenger against the guy who’s proven unbeatable for the past four decades or so.

-snip-

In Hawaii:

The race for Hawaii governor is in a dead heat between Neil Abercrombie and Duke Aiona, according to the latest poll.

It’s 48 percent for Abercrombie, 48 percent for Aiona. It’s not a statewide sampling, but instead represents much of Oahu.

The poll was taken by Public Policy Polling over the weekend on behalf of the online political blog Daily Kos. It surveyed more that 640 voters in the First Congressional District and found the governor’s race neck and neck.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Michigan; Campaign News; Polls; U.S. Congress
KEYWORDS: dingell; steele
Surprise, surprise, surprise!
1 posted on 10/08/2010 5:32:22 AM PDT by Palmetto Patriot
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To: Palmetto Patriot
Holy crap!

If Dingell is in trouble in Michigan, the Democrats are in a heap o' trouble everywhere.

2 posted on 10/08/2010 5:37:28 AM PDT by justlurking (The only remedy for a bad guy with a gun is a good WOMAN (Sgt. Kimberly Munley) with a gun)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

Dems would pitch a Fitch if Abercrombie won......


3 posted on 10/08/2010 5:40:09 AM PDT by G Larry
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To: justlurking

Keep your powder dry, folks.
We have yet to get the October surprise.


4 posted on 10/08/2010 5:40:15 AM PDT by AlexW
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To: justlurking

I think we’re starting to see the wave.


5 posted on 10/08/2010 5:40:26 AM PDT by Palmetto Patriot
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To: AlexW

Meanwhile in the 7th district race our former RINO congressman (Schwarz) has endorsed the marxist... again.

The SOB lost to Walberg in 06 and has waged jihad ever since. The fact that someone so close to the GOP candidate for governor is endorsing the democrat is disturbing to say the least.


6 posted on 10/08/2010 5:48:29 AM PDT by cripplecreek (Remember the River Raisin! (look it up))
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To: cripplecreek

Politics: The occupation of choice for crooks, thugs, and Marxist.


7 posted on 10/08/2010 5:52:37 AM PDT by AlexW
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To: G Larry

Abercrombie is a big Lib/Progressive who left his seat in the House for this “sure thing” run for Governor.

Republican Charles Djou surprised the pundits by winning that seat in a special election earlier this year.

Conventional wisdom was that he would lose big in November to Democrat Hanabusa. He now trails by 1 pt. in the polls.

So much for conventional wisdom.


8 posted on 10/08/2010 5:58:34 AM PDT by Palmetto Patriot
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To: Palmetto Patriot

25.


9 posted on 10/08/2010 6:00:26 AM PDT by struggle ((The struggle continues))
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To: AlexW

I’m even less impressed with Rick Snyder than I was on primary night. He ran as a moderate (With the help of Schwarz)and then took a hard left turn. Its starting to sound like Jenny Granholm will get a 3rd term after all.


10 posted on 10/08/2010 6:06:19 AM PDT by cripplecreek (Remember the River Raisin! (look it up))
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To: Palmetto Patriot

Thanks for the post knowing Dingell is down just made my day.


11 posted on 10/08/2010 6:08:23 AM PDT by Rappini ("Pro deo et Patria.)
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To: Palmetto Patriot
In Michigan: A new independent poll has the dean of the U.S. House, Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich., trailing his Republican opponent, Rob Steele, by 4 percentage points.

But this is BEFORE the dems start stuffing the ballot boxes and the "dead" get a chance to vote. Guarenteed Dangle will pull out a "squeeker" in the end. This is DEtroit, afterall.

12 posted on 10/08/2010 6:16:40 AM PDT by GoldenPup
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To: Palmetto Patriot

Heh. Hawaii Gov would be awesome for redistricting. Go Hawaiin pubbies! Fight the machine.


13 posted on 10/08/2010 6:36:04 AM PDT by November 2010
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To: cripplecreek

I was at a Rick Snyder/Brian Calley event the other night, and I have to agree that I am not impressed either. But I think they will do better than Bernero. Brian Calley reminds me of the stereotypical snobish yuppie jerk from the movies.

I might be voting for Ken Proctor the Libertarian. http://www.lpwm.org/KenProctor/index.php


14 posted on 10/08/2010 6:46:22 AM PDT by RatsDawg
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To: Palmetto Patriot

1. Repeal Obamacare
2. TERM LIMITS (So this crap gets flushed down the toilet once and for all.)

If the Pubbies fail to do these two things, we need a new party. At least we could have an adult conversation with the American people.


15 posted on 10/08/2010 6:48:41 AM PDT by SC_Pete
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To: Palmetto Patriot

It’s time to go poke a stick in the Kos Kids cage until I get banned.


16 posted on 10/08/2010 6:59:20 AM PDT by sportutegrl
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To: Palmetto Patriot; All

The Rossman Group’s Release:

Dingell Slightly Trailing Steele

Race within the margin, but “Dean of the House” behind

LANSING, Mich. — In what is perceived as an anti-incumbent year, Congressman John Dingell (D-MI) – the longest-serving member of the U.S. House of Representatives – slightly trails his Republican opponent Rob Steele. A new, independent poll shows 43.8 percent choosing Steele, 39.5 percent Dingell, 11 percent undecided, and the other candidates splitting up the rest.

“With more than 50 years of service in Congress, Dingell may be the poster boy for many dissatisfied voters who are gunning for incumbents this year,” said Kelly Rossman-McKinney, CEO and founder of The Rossman Group which conducted the survey in partnership with Team TelCom. “The ‘Dean of the House’ will be tough to beat, but these numbers show that at this point, even The Dean is not immune to the anger that is brewing with the electorate.”

Dingell and Steele both carry about three quarters of their respective party supporters, but Dingell trails 31.7 percent to fifty percent amongst Independent voters and by nearly 80 points amongst those who consider themselves Tea Party supporters. Steele is ahead 46.7 percent to 37.9 percent amongst voters 65 and older, and the only age group Dingell leads in is the 30-45 category. Men prefer Steele by a 54.4 to 31.6 margin, while women choose Dingell 46.9 to 33.8 percent.

The automated poll, conducted October 4, surveyed 400 likely voters in Michigan’s 15th Congressional District on the contest and has a margin of error of +/- 5.6%. The weekly survey of 400 likely voters statewide on Michigan’s races for Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General was also conducted on October 4th. The results of the questions on statewide races are attached and charts showing the progress over the last several weeks are attached:
—MORE—

Governor
Rick Snyder – 53%
Virg Bernero – 30.5%
Undecided – 16.5%

Secretary of State
Ruth Johnson – 47%
Jocelyn Benson – 30.8%
Undecided – 22.3%

Attorney General
Bill Schuette – 47%
David Leyton – 29%
Undecided – 24%

Republicans continue to hold considerable leads in all of the statewide races, as has been the case since the weekly polling began over six weeks ago. One trend to monitor in the Governor’s race is that this week’s results are the third in a row where there has been a slight uptick in the number of undecideds and small drop in support for Snyder, however, Bernero does not appear to be benefiting directly from this subtle movement since he remains hovering at 30 percent.

“The flood of ads Democrats have tried to dump into this race to prop up Bernero may be having a tiny effect, but is it enough and is there enough time for them to decide it’s worth staying the course?,” said Rossman-McKinney. “Considering the static nature of the Secretary of State and Attorney General numbers, Democrats will need to pour a lot of resources into these races if they hope to use them as a “firewall” as many observers expect.”


17 posted on 10/08/2010 7:13:47 AM PDT by taildragger ((Palin / Mulally 2012 ))
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To: Palmetto Patriot
Detroit Free Press headline Nov 3:

"DINGELL BURIED!!"

18 posted on 10/08/2010 7:19:24 AM PDT by Reo
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To: Palmetto Patriot

Well then...Chuck gets my bucks and Abey goes wanting!


19 posted on 10/08/2010 10:41:24 AM PDT by G Larry
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