Posted on 01/11/2011 9:37:11 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Tea Party favorite Rep. Michele Bachmann is flirting with a run in 2012, but the GOP may not get a real shot at the White House until four years later. Mark McKinnon on why, dynasty issues aside, Bush will be a clear favorite.
As the 112th Congress settles into its first week of work, political fireworks are already going off that could have a big impact on the presidential elections of 2012 and 2016. Michele Bachmann and Jeb Bush showed some leg this week and got many in the GOP steaming up.
While the media fixates on a possible presidential run for Sarah Palin, another Mama Grizzly may join the fray. Tea Party doyenne and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann may be positioning herself for the 2012 contest. Rumors abound, with news of her recent appearance at a GOP fundraiser in Michigan and an upcoming meeting in her native Iowa this month, two key presidential primary states. “Nothing is off the table,” Bachmann’s chief of staff says. “The congresswoman is excited about her first trip to Iowa this year.”
Despite being targeted for defeat by then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the outspoken Bachmann bested three challengers, winning her third term in November with 53 percent of the vote. She also benefited from an endorsement by none other than Sarah Palin. Bachmann was the top fundraiser of any congressional candidate, raising an astounding $13.4 million in 2009-10. For comparison, Pelosi raised $2.5 million, and new Speaker John Boehner, $9.7 million.
The founder of the Tea Party House Caucus, she is an influential voice for the party’s conservative base. In a peace offering from Boehner, Bachmann was offered a position on the House Intelligence Committee following her withdrawal from a potentially divisive race for Republican Conference chair, the No. 4 slot in the party leadership. A fiscal and social conservative, mother of five, and foster care provider for 23, she often causes sparks to fly with her fiery, passionate, and not always well-thought-out comments. Like Palin, she perplexes and repulses her detractors and delights her fervent admirers.
Palin versus Bachmann would be a lot of fun to watch. The media would have to be sedated. And the Tea Party would be torn. But give the ladies credit. They are politically astute enough to know they share the same base and can’t both run. The question is, who blinks?
On the other hand, 2012 may not be the bonanza Republicans anticipate. At this point the GOP field has no clear leader. If the economy shows any signs of life in the next year and half, and President Obama’s favorable ratings bounce and hold over 50, it may not matter. With all the advantages of incumbency, it’s likely Obama will be re-elected. So, on to 2016, when the presidential contest will be wide open. And this time there will be a clear favorite: Jeb Bush. (The howling starts here.)
Despite the obvious legacy issues—his last name is a four-letter word to some—the Bush brother who actually grew up wanting to be president is a true policy wonk with proven executive, crisis management, and leadership abilities, and the former Florida governor’s favorability is still high. “He’s a serious conservative, with a seriously positive case for what he wants to do for America. He’s not just a ‘Party of No’ guy,” says best-selling author John Heilemann. And Jeb cracked the door open the other day. While insisting he isn’t looking to run for president in 2012, the second Bush son said he would never say never when asked about 2016.
The first governor ever re-elected in Florida’s history, Jeb focused intensely on reform of education, the budget process, civil service, and health care. These are issues that need to be addressed on the national level. He appeals to the establishment and the Tea Party movement. He was an early backer of Marco Rubio, interestingly against the GOP establishment. And almost universally favored among Republicans in the all-important electoral state of Florida, he also has crossover appeal among Democrats and independents.
Jeb, really John Ellis Bush, is an innovative thinker and genial reformer. And he opens the GOP Big Tent wide. As an exchange student teaching in Mexico, where he met his future wife, Bush gained fluency in Spanish. His support among Hispanics is strong; he won the majority of the Florida Latino vote in 1998 and 2002. He has publicly disagreed with Arizona’s contested immigration law, and he now serves as co-chair of the new Hispanic Leadership Network, a Republican effort to attract Hispanic voter support.
While 41 was gentle, 43 tough, Jeb, or “45,” as he someday may be called, is smart. The question here: Will America see the man, or reject dynasty? And if not, there’s always “47”—George P. Bush.
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As vice chairman of Public Strategies and president of Maverick Media, Mark McKinnon has helped meet strategic challenges for candidates, corporations and causes, including George W. Bush, John McCain, Governor Ann Richards, Charlie Wilson, Lance Armstrong, and Bono.
Guess again. By 2016 we can choose between Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, and Chris Christie.
No more Bush. 2 out of 3 failure is enough
Jeb Bush OR Michele Bachmann
Such a quandary........... [/s]
I will never vote for a Bush again. Twice bitten, three times shy.
Chris Christie is a pro-abortion, gun-grabbing, pro-amnesty RINO. He’s probably as good as it gets for us in his current job, but president?
Whoa there, Jeb. Not so fast. Maybe in 2028 after Todd Palin’s 2nd term...
No, cuz then we’ll be looking at Piper...
Sorry, I’ll vote 3rd party that year... I’m all BUSHed out, it’s time for the blue bloods to take a rest and let some others run for president.
Has Jeb ever seen a department or agency he didn’t intend to keep around? If we don’t flush the marxist turd in 2012, 2016 won’t matter.
targeted ? Tsk tsk Pelosi.
Still, then-Speaker Pelosi has a nice ring to it :)
No more Bushes please. No thanks!
Not just no, H-E-double hockey sticks NO!
This is why the establishment Republicans are so against Sarah Palin.
They are NOT afraid she would lose, they are afraid she would win and screw it up for Jeb in 2016.
They know Romney and all the others are losers this time around...
You know, it may be time for us to start filling Sarah’s war chest. Hard times are going to get worse, so it might be wise to start donating now on the installment plan. It could be that she is waiting for her base to make a move. She can’t run on air.
We have a couple of good people we can unite around, and the catch is that we have to unite around them and fight for them.
We can’t let the media pick our candidate, and when the inevitable smear campaign comes we can’t let it sway us or even faze us.
The political pros are trying to pick the winning race horse, but this time its too important to leave to the professionals. This isn’t a horse race. We have to stick together and take this fight all the way to its conclusion. If we lose one race or one battle we start the next one after a half an hour’s rest and reflection.
We have to take this country back. That is more than just winning a few political races, we have to rebuild the schools that indoctrinate our kids, we have to build communications networks that deal in facts, we have to build the culture we want to live in and build it from bottom up. From the family outward.
Yeah, and to celebrate the nomination of Jeb Bush we should all drink poison to make our day complete.
Sure let’s become Bolivia or Paraguay and elect the 3rd member of the same family president. Hell, we only have a third of a billion people to choose from.
It’s obvious our betters have picked MittBot to take the dive in 2012, followed by the annointed Jeb.
They could well see a nasty revolt.
We will lose if Mitt Romeny is picked.
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