May they choke on the words...Madam President.
Posted on 01/14/2011 2:53:17 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
OK, so it's not going to be Sarah Palin in '12 ... ... but the Republicans still have to nominate someone to run against Barack Obama. Who will it be?
One of the consequences of Sarah Palin's decision to break her silence on the Tucson tragedy just hours before President Obama was to address a nationally televised memorial service on Wednesday is that the next day's news coverage is filled with observations like this, from Politico's Jonathan Martin:
At sunrise in the east on Wednesday, Sarah Palin demonstrated that she has little interest -- or capacity -- in moving beyond her brand of grievance-based politics. And at sundown in the west, Barack Obama reminded even his critics of his ability to rally disparate Americans around a message of reconciliation.
Of course, this was a competition that Palin was never going to win. Some of it has to do with her. As I noted yesterday, it's just not in her nature to bite her tongue when she feels that her opponents are actively wronging her, even if it would be in her best interests politically. I happen to believe the attention that's been paid to Palin's rhetoric and to her cross-hairs map since last Saturday has been unwarranted; the connection between Gabrielle Giffords' shooter and right-wing rhetoric that many initially assumed simply doesn't exist -- and claims that the "political climate" pushed Jared Loughner over the edge strike me as a slippery, speculative and impossible to prove way for Palin critics to attach some blame to her anyway. To me, at least, she has a legitimate gripe -- but by making her own sense of victimhood the main thrust of her speech, Palin was setting herself up for a world of grief.
But even if she had taken a different tone, there was still no way of avoiding unfavorable comparisons with Obama. After all, if there's one thing Obama unfailingly excels at, it's delivering a big speech. The president's skills as an off-the-cuff communicator -- in press conferences, at town hall events -- are often derided, and he's not particularly inspiring when it comes to Oval Office addresses either. But put him in a giant arena filled with a friendly crowd, and he will deliver -- always. Add in the fact, as Jonathan Bernstein noted this morning, that it was "an easy speech" because everyone wanted Obama to succeed, and there was just no way that his address wasn't going to be heralded almost universally as a home run -- and that, by comparison, commentators would judge Palin's harshly.
My sense is that the events of the last week have been very helpful to Republicans who do not want Palin to be their nominee in 2012. As we've noted, a growing number of influential conservatives were already throwing cold water on the idea of a Palin '12 campaign even before Tucson. And their words seemed to be having an effect: Between the end of 2009 and the end of 2010, the number of Republican voters who said they were open to the idea of backing Palin dropped by 20 points. This didn't happen with any other major Republican eyeing the race. When you look at what's happened in the last week -- the fact that the left immediately zoomed in on Palin when this tragedy struck, that the media so readily played along and made her the focus in its aftermath, and that Palin chose to respond in the manner she did (and that she chose to do so on a day that invited impossible to win comparisons with Obama) -- it should only hasten Palin's demise within her own party. Yes, of course, a lot can happen in the next 12 months, and Tucson may be a long-forgotten memory by then. But Palin's problems are much bigger than Tucson.
Maybe Palin will end up running, and maybe she won't. I can now easily imagine a scenario in which she realizes that an embarrassing finish is likely, declines to run, and signs on for another season of "Sarah Palin's Alaska." Or maybe she'll plow ahead with a campaign anyway. But I don't think she looms as quite the 800-pound gorilla we all took her for just a few months ago, when Palin-ish Tea Party candidates were scoring upset wins in major Republican Senate primaries.
If this is true, then the biggest beneficiary is probably Mike Huckabee, whose base overlaps more with Palin's than any other top-tier Republican. Winning Iowa, like he did in 2008, is key to any '12 strategy for Huckabee. He can do it in a field without Palin or with a severely weakened Palin. But if she were to run and pull a significant share of the vote, it would potentially be at his expense.
A weak-nonexistent Palin candidacy probably hurts Mitt Romney the most. There's a theory that Iowa, with its Christian/activist-oriented caucus electorate, will essentially serve to anoint a cultural conservative candidate, while New Hampshire, where the Republican electorate has been hostile to Southern- and religious-tinted conservatism in past presidential primaries (9 percent for Pat Robertson in 1988, for instance), will pick the mainstream contender -- and that the race will then be settled in the subsequent states. Under this theory, Romney (the clear early favorite in New Hampshire) would be much better served by a Palin victory in Iowa, since far more Republicans seem to have reservations about her than they do about Huckabee. (The same poll that showed Palin's standing with Republicans dropping 20 points in the last year also found Huckabee to be the most popular of all the '12 candidates.) Huckabee seems to have more crossover potential than past religious conservatives who have run for president, and the South's dominance within the GOP is only growing. The most underreported aspect of the '12 race right now may be how well-positioned he is to win the nomination.
Granted, there are other candidates who will end up running and who could break through, threatening Huckabee (or Palin) in Iowa or Romney in New Hampshire. And both Huckabee and Romney need to be careful about the bar being set too high in those early states. A parallel can be drawn to Bob Dole, who was called the "president of Iowa" after netting 37 percent in the 1988 caucuses -- nearly doubling the total of then Vice President George H.W. Bush (who himself had beaten Ronald Reagan in the 1980 caucuses). When Dole ran again in 1996, it was widely assumed that he'd again romp through Iowa; the suspense, supposedly, was over who would finish a distant second. Dole did end up winning Iowa again, but with a meager 27 percent -- just 4 points ahead of Pat Buchanan. The result was taken as a blow to Dole, who then lost New Hampshire to Buchanan. It still wasn't enough to cost Dole the nomination, mainly because Buchanan was too polarizing even within the GOP, but it almost did: When the early New Hampshire returns showed him running in third place (behind Lamar Alexander), Dole told his team that he'd drop out if the result held.
Milk has jumped over a dollar in the past few months and gas should be breaking $4 a gallon very soon.
There are more unemployed than during the great depression and the number of foreclosures you mention exceeds the percentage during the 1920's and 1930's. OTOH, if he's intentionally trying to destroy the economy, he'll well on schedule to do so.
To paraphrase Thomas Jefferson, the man who knows nothing is better informed than the man who knows only what passes through the mouth or pen of most "journalists". The only thing you'll read in the newspapers or hear on the evening news that is reliable is the advertisements.
I’m sure there are many like you. It’d be funny if enough of them are in say, Iowa, South Carolina, Florida or Ohio. LOL
I saw last Saturday as an out and out declaration of war on conservatism. Time to close ranks.
Exactly right.
Wish fulfillment instead of analysis.
Classic Freudian projection.
All these pieces present themselves as thinking SO FAR AHEAD
and presenting a desired scenario in all its details, that you just know they come from a place deep inside the Left psyche that has already figured out the actual scenario for the future is likely to be OPPOSITE to the one they want.
They get all their pathetic prognoses wrong, because they’re not interested in objectivity, just taking momentary comfort in living in the future they’ve already concocted for themselves. These are people who can NEVER take it “one day at a time”.
Exactly right.
Wish fulfillment instead of analysis.
Classic Freudian projection.
All these pieces present themselves as thinking SO FAR AHEAD
and presenting a desired scenario in all its details, that you just know they come from a place deep inside the Left psyche that has already figured out the actual scenario for the future is likely to be OPPOSITE to the one they want.
They get all their pathetic prognoses wrong, because they’re not interested in objectivity, just taking momentary comfort in living in the future they’ve already concocted for themselves. These are people who can NEVER take it “one day at a time”.
Palin will make a mark and do a lot of damage to the Demonrat machines and they know it. Republicans are lost and cowardly and Palin is a whole other breed who is going to shatter their demonizations. They have plenty of reason to fear her and that’s the hysteria. No amount of these articles is going to change the fact she will not be silenced.
The beauty of the campaign is that she will be heard firsthand. She has nothing to lose to run and she needs to because we cannot take the same old, same old. The media is just as much the enemy of this country and Palin can make it the issue as well. She doesn’t hold back and a campaign will show everyone and that’s what they fear. She needs to run.
How do the cowardly republicans live with themselves?
The demoncrats are proud and happy marxists who believe they are doing god’s work on earth (destroying western civilization) and as evil as they are they can look themselves in the mirror and be proud of their dysfunctional accomplishments.
But the cowardly republicans believe they are defending America. They believe they are defending the Constitution. Believe they are defending Liberty.
And then they act like Pawlenty and lay down with their butts in the air and allow people like Franken to “have their way” with them. And they sit mum as churchmice when Palin and FreeSpeech are viciously slandered and attacked.
Or worse. They say things like “Obama got it right last night”.
How do they look at themselves in the mirror? Do they own mirrors?
Roger Ailes did tell his team to tone it down.
Jindal's parents were foreign nationals (NOT US citizens) at the time of his birth. He is ineligible for the office of POTUS as he is NOT a NATURAL BORN CITIZEN.
Salon has spoken, Barf—spit arrggghh.
Peoplea actually buy this crap?
Brain dead.
Its easy to look in the mirror when you have no reflection.
You wanna lose 20 lbs? Read the comments!!
There was a time not too very long ago when most Americans would have said that having oral sex in the oval office with an intern would lead to immediate impeachment and removal.
Never underestimate the power of the MSM to sway the mindless masses.
I will vote for Sarah.
They are gutless wonders. Even many who I previously respected. Their recent silence is a travesty. There is nothing more cowardly than a Cowardly Republican (because they pretend to stand for something, that’s what makes them Most Cowardly Of All).
May they choke on the words...Madam President.
Well said. There are too many conservatives that don’t like Palin as well as all liberals. I think there are many men and women that would never vote for a woman President, no matter their qualifications.
The establishment has failed, comprehensively. Only somebody from outside the club can do the job a President has to do at this juncture in history. Anyone from outside the club will take fire from both sides. But the right person can survive the firefight and go on to get the job done. Sarah may not be the right person, but every other candidate on the radar screen is clearly wrong.
Every time she opens her mouth the usual suspects will do a victory lap and say “see, see, she's clearly unfit for the Presidency.” By this they will mean that she clearly doesn't belong to the club,and they'll be right about that. They will never understand that this is her most important credential. But if all goes well, the voters will understand what their self-appointed betters can't. Let the fools have their victory laps for the next two years. He who laughs last laughs best.
In the end, reality matters not the delusional ravings of Politico. Palin will rise and fall on her merits, which are clearly considerable. The dodo media still reaches a lot of people even as it teeters on the verge of extinction, but it can't change reality. The reality is that Sarah Palin is an extremely talented communicator who understands better than any other national figure where we are and where we need to go. As the establishment's pathetic efforts to manage our society fail ever more spectacularly the alternative she represents is going to get more and more attractive to more and more voters.
Don't let the bastards wear you down. The relentless, internally inconsistent and ridiculous criticism of Palin is just a psy-op. They're trying to beat your morale down to the point where you'll happily settle for an establishment candidate who can't win and wouldn't do any good if he did (Mitch Daniels, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, et al). Pay no attention.
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