Posted on 09/07/2011 2:00:09 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Ann Coulter appeared on Fox News Tuesday night to discuss the uncertainty surrounding Sarah Palins presidential ambitions with Laura Ingraham. Neither of them thought much of Palins chances.
(VIDEO AT LINK)
Judging the fortunes of political candidates from polls is a tricky business, especially those who have not formally declared yet. Is it a sign of strength or weakness that non-candidate Sarah Palin shows up in third place behind Rick Perry and Mitt Romney? Whatever that says about Palin, its probably a more significant data point for the declared candidates chugging in behind her. Personally, I would not find the notion that I could enter the Presidential race in third place to be depressing.
At any rate, people do change their minds. President Obamas cratering poll numbers are significant, but it would be rather foolish to assume theyre a perfect predictor of his electoral success in 2012. If Palin is a good presidential candidate, then formally entering the race and taking the stage at debates will move the polls in her direction. Her official presence would expose her to a wider audience, especially as the election draws closer. For good or ill, her public statements and campaign positions would become more important than the mythology surrounding her.
Theres no other way to find out whether three years of media mud will stick to Palin, or whether three years of enthusiasm from her supporters will translate into votes. My sense is that people who closely follow politics are underestimating how much the general public remains undecided about even a prominent figure like Palin. We too easily mistake our passions, pro and con, for broad sentiment among a populace that only sees the tip of the media icebergs we swim between.
Much of the poll input about Palin, both good and bad, is coming from folks who barely remember her from the 2008 campaign, or mostly think of her as a television personality. Someone who says they would love to vote for her as President might be thinking fondly of an episode from Sarah Palins Alaska, while someone who declares they would never vote for her might be thinking of a nasty joke from a late-night comedian. That all changes if she becomes an official candidate and enters the headlines of the 2012 race, just as its changing for Rick Perry right now. He had a high profile as well, and has attracted both new supporters and new critics since he emerged from the roiling mists of speculation.
Likewise, commentators and their ardent readers might be projecting their own impatience onto a larger public that really doesnt care if a big-name candidate enters the race in October or November. The maddening tease Coulter and Ingraham complained about will retroactively become signs of Palins intentions that should have been obvious all along. Thats how conventional wisdom is formed.
My biggest gripes about Palins long decision-making process are personal and institutional. On a personal level, I cheerfully admit to wanting every candidate to declare early and stay in the race a long time, because they give me stuff to write about. I admire those like Herman Cain who got into the race early, and put all their cards right on the table. Institutionally, I worry that a late entry followed by victory will form a new conventional wisdom for 2016 and beyond, in which the early primary season is dismissed as a forlorn bullpen for hopeless wannabes. I think voters are well-served by long and vigorous primaries.
I would point out a lesson I learned the hard way: prominent people who decide not to run for President want to control the precise moment in which they convey their intentions. They want to build the maximum impact for their endorsements or refusal to endorse anyone, which can also be a powerful statement. They view the possibility that they could yet enter the race as a potent force for shaping the political conversation. If those are factors in Palins decision to stretch out her tease, then shes hardly unique.
In the wake of the conversation between Coulter and Ingraham, many bloggers echoed Coulter by expressing their exasperation with fans who cant tolerate any criticism of Palin. I suspect Palin herself would strongly maintain that the issues at hand are far larger than any single person, and would not be happy with those who say they will only participate in the 2012 elections if they can vote for her. She also wouldnt want the issues she cares about to be evaluated solely through personal admiration or disdain for her. Of all the many things Palin has been, or aspired to be, Ive never heard her express a desire to become an ingredient in an ideological litmus test. She puts too much effort into writing and speaking eloquently, about matters of great substance, to be treated that way.
Why are so many Palin fans dedicated to her, and why do they perceive so much of the criticism leveled at her from sources on the Right as unfair? Because shes always out in front. She took a mountain of abuse in 2008, and then cheerfully began climbing the even bigger mountain behind it. Hers is often the first voice raised in response to attacks against conservatives, the Tea Party, and middle-class Americans especially against the really vicious attacks. And when Palin herself is the target, as in the wake of the Tucson atrocity, too many conservative and Republican leaders are much too slow to speak up for her.
Look at her response to James Hoffas vile remarks on Labor Day, and Barack Obamas agreeable silence afterward. She didnt just run to a camera and express her outrage. She wrote a very detailed, thoughtful response, as constructive as it was fiery, and posted it in the wee hours of the morning. Did you see anything like that from the declared GOP presidential candidates? Why not?
Maybe Palin wont run, and never seriously planned to. Maybe she will, but shes taking a long time to make her announcement. She always said she wanted to see if theres another candidate she could support. Tonight will be the first big debate appearance of Rick Perry, the last big name to join the race. He had a pretty spectacular campaign launch. Is it so unreasonable for Palin to wait a bit longer and see how he fares, once his campaign reaches orbit? If shes a non-factor, why are so many people pro and con being so unreasonable about her?
If Palin doesn't run, the vast majority of her supporters will look to the other candidates. If those candidates think they've been left with insufficient time to rally voters to their cause, because Palin waited a few extra months to announce she wouldn't enter the race, then Sarah Palin isn't the one who has a problem worthy of serious criticism.
In order to win the nomination, she has to outwit and outmaneuver them.
The longer she delays announcing her candidacy, the longer she keeps the ruling-class RINOs, state-controlled media, DemocRAT and Republican opponents, etc. in complete and total disarray.
Why should she give up her strategic advantage?
To make it "fair" for the RINOs and 'Rats?
Palin is coming, and the Tea Party is coming with her.
Clinton didn’t announce his candidacy until October 3, 1991
Ronald Reagan didn’t officially announce until November 11, 1979
Here ara a couple of great audios re the two magpies and Sarah kerfuffle:
Mr.L’s Tavvern - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5wV3-zxJSU
and
Tammy Bruce - http://www.sarahnet.net/sarahnet-news/5344-tammy-bruce-is-this-why-we-never-hear-any-criticism-of-sarah-palin-.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
All in all, a well-written, evenhanded article. Thanks for posting it.
Ronald Reagan didnt officially announce until November 11, 1979”
That was back in the days when the NH primary was in late February. Times have changed since then, and rather dramatically.
What is the date of the NH primary now? First week of January? (I know it was like January 6 in 2010...not sure what it is this year, but I’m pretty sure it isn’t much later than that, if at all).
The way is now clear...
John Bolton has given notice that he isn’t running.
Add another magpie-
Ann Coulter-
ML/NJ
(via Mighty Serf) About That Fox News Poll http://bit.ly/ozD4kk
Rank Fear!
By both the Left, and the GOP “Crony Capitalist” Establishment!
Ann’s still trying to get Christie in. It’s not too late.
This would be LBJ/Bill Moyers type stuff. You know those other Texans whose names must not be spoken...
NH primary - Tuesday 24 January 2012 (tentative date)
ok...so if you subtract a month of off that Reagan date (the primary was at the end of February, now it is at the end of January), then the apples to apples comparison would be, give or take, October 10 or so.
That strikes me as about right for a drop dead deadline.
(unless she plans on going indy, which might well be the case...it isn’t talked about much here...but, that approach would be consistent with her “late” start, and her criticisms of the GOP [and her supporters’ criticisms of the gop])
Mr.L: My Comments on Coulter/Ingraham Bitch Fest @ Palin’s Expense
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5wV3-zxJSU
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