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‘The Bradley Effect’ Predicts a Huge Win for Romney
American Thinker ^ | August 30, 2012 | Adam Shaw

Posted on 09/01/2012 3:42:44 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

At time of writing, polls show the race for the presidency to be tight. General consensus seems to be that whoever wins, the 2012 election will be won by a bat squeak.

Yet to many, especially those of us on the right, it seems peculiar that Obama is still remotely in the race. With highunemployment, minimal GDP growth, a 100% increase in food stamp costs, and out-of-control spending, many conservatives are asking how just under half of the American population can possibly want more of the same.

While it is not possible now to get into the many reasons certain people will vote Democrat in November, I propose that all polls, not just left-leaning polls, may be being strongly misled by their data, and Romney/Ryan may actually have a huge lead not seen in polls.

It is my contention that this is due to a mix of the infamous Bradley effect and what is known in Britain as "the Shy Tory Factor," with both coming together to exaggerate just how popular Obama is in America.

The Bradley effect is a much-debated polling distortion that is easy to demonstrate but difficult to prove. The idea that when a black or minority candidate is on the ticket against a white candidate, certain voters may lie under pressure from a pollster, worried about being seen as a racist for choosing the white candidate over the minority, sounds highly plausible. The consequence, should the Bradley effect be in play, would be a skewed poll indicating that the minority candidate is in better political shape than his or her opponent...

(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Issues; Polls
KEYWORDS: 2012; obama; polls; romney
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Could it be?
1 posted on 09/01/2012 3:42:49 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Nope. The “Bradley Effect” was the “Great White Hope” (heh) in 2008, and it didn’t pan out.

It went just the opposite way, as dimwits saw it as a way to purge their souls of guilt.


2 posted on 09/01/2012 3:45:28 PM PDT by Yossarian ("All the charm of Nixon. All the competency of Carter." - SF Chronicle comment post on Obama)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I heard this idea touted incessantly in 2008. It was B.S. then, too.


3 posted on 09/01/2012 3:45:28 PM PDT by Future Snake Eater (CrossFit.com)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

We will find out in 2 months.


4 posted on 09/01/2012 3:47:28 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Yossarian

The “Bradley Effect” was probably more viable before Political Correctness became absolute law of the land.


5 posted on 09/01/2012 3:48:04 PM PDT by fwdude ( You cannot compromise with that which you must defeat.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Without question, the Bradley Effect is a factor in this election as it proved to be a major factor in the 2008 election.


6 posted on 09/01/2012 3:48:12 PM PDT by Uncle Slayton
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The Bradley effect lasted way past the 2008 election.


7 posted on 09/01/2012 3:48:34 PM PDT by Raycpa
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To: Future Snake Eater

You don’t think that there are a percentage of voters who lie to pollsters for fear of being thought of as racists?


8 posted on 09/01/2012 3:53:13 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It makes sense. In a poll a voter will react emotionally and say yes to the feel good choice.

In the voting both, feelings fade and the analytical choice is for the best candidate.


9 posted on 09/01/2012 3:57:57 PM PDT by cicero2k
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The Bradly Effect will be what pollsters and the media will blame, instead of the horrible D/R/I sample.


10 posted on 09/01/2012 3:58:35 PM PDT by middlegeorgian
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The crowds tell the tale. If the media doesn't show the crowds, then Mitts are large and the big 0’s are small. Same thing the media pulled on Regan vs Carter. That election was supposed to be a dead heat. I remember how hard it was for Frank Reynold’s to call the Regan landslide in 1980. Can't wait to see them forced to call Mitt's landslide in 2012.
11 posted on 09/01/2012 3:59:53 PM PDT by Nuc 1.1 (Nuc 1 Liberals aren't Patriots. Remember 1789!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If there are then they’re statistically insignificant. You don’t remember hearing all about the “Bradley Effect” prior to the 2008 election? Every other article on FR mentioned it as a reason that McCain/Palin were going to win. Some effect...


12 posted on 09/01/2012 4:00:45 PM PDT by Future Snake Eater (CrossFit.com)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I don’t know about any Bradley effect, but it looks pretty good to me. If the polls were honest, I think Obama would be 10 points down.


13 posted on 09/01/2012 4:02:09 PM PDT by ozzymandus
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If the Bradley effect influences 3-4% of the electorate, that’ll likely be enough. I believe it is at least that big this time around


14 posted on 09/01/2012 4:05:57 PM PDT by muir_redwoods (Hopey changey Low emission unicorns and a crap sandwich)
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To: Yossarian

Yep, I remember it being talked about in ‘08 too. Didn’t quite work out.


15 posted on 09/01/2012 4:06:17 PM PDT by Qwackertoo (Romney/Ryan 2012 The Future of Our Children and Their Children are at stake.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

good question..


16 posted on 09/01/2012 4:06:57 PM PDT by brivette
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I’m not terribly concerned. As long as Romney can bring together a coalition of 2008 McCain voters, moderate Republicans that were turned off by the candidates (Palin, McCain or both) and voted Obama, with a good chunk of Independents/conservative Dems he shouldn’t have any trouble.


17 posted on 09/01/2012 4:13:09 PM PDT by erlayman
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To: Nuc 1.1
The crowds tell the tale. If the media doesn't show the crowds, then Mitts are large and the big 0’s are small.

Watching Fox news tonight there were a lot of videos of Romney and Ryan with crowds, surrounded by crowds, people everywhere. Equal time was given to Obama but it was always a stage with about two to three dozen behind him, nothing of the crowd in front of the stage except in one case they showed him walking up to the stage with about a dozen people visible in front of it.

Another observation, of the three dozen people behind Obama there were only two blacks, the rest were all white. I thought his party was diversified.

18 posted on 09/01/2012 4:15:40 PM PDT by ProudFossil (" I never did give anyone hell. I just told the truth and they thought it was hell." Harry Truman)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The Dems have played the race card for 3 + years. Now it will come back and haunt them. “Don't worry, Be happy”.
19 posted on 09/01/2012 4:17:34 PM PDT by mosaicwolf (Strength and Honor)
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To: middlegeorgian; 2ndDivisionVet

“The Bradly Effect will be what pollsters and the media will blame, instead of the horrible D/R/I sample.”

Good point!

I never heard of the Shy Tories, but that is cute.

I have heard that the “Bradly Effect” is not actually real, the details of which I cannot recount. But I do well remember the David Dinkins/Rudy Giuliani rematch election and it is that election that this current pres race seems comparable to.

Dinkins was elected the first black mayor of NYC and maybe he was a well intentioned fellow. What did him in, as many may remember, was (were?) the Crown Heights Riots (or pogrom might be a better word) that resulted from an Orthodox Jewish man running over and killing a young black child, Gavin Kato (sp?). During these riots an young Orthodox Student was stabbed to death, while his killers yelled “kill the Jew”.

I’m sorry, I don’t remember the name of the Jewish man who was killed.

Now, this was all bad enough, but what damned Dinkins was his lackadaisical response. It was even said that he advised: let them have 3 days to riot. I won’t say that is true at this point, but it was “out there” if you know what I mean.

Well, after this debacle it was still being urged to vote for Dinkins, because if you didn’t you were....can you guess it? That’s right a RAAAAAACIST.

Well, thank Providence he lost and the rest, as they say, is history.

But, I was reminded by another person that that race between Dinkins and Giuliani was very, very, very close.

So, I’m not sure what to think about this current race, other than this: appeals to be “not racist” and “give the black guy a chance” will NOT work, after the black guy has been given a chance by non-racist americans.

It didn’t work for Dinkins and it won’t work for Obama.


20 posted on 09/01/2012 4:18:42 PM PDT by jocon307
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Wouldn’t a smart pollster be able to approximate the effect and allow for it in his sample size?

The top pollsters, like say Rasmussen or Gallop, would probably be the best at dealing with it.


21 posted on 09/01/2012 4:21:35 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Dunno about you guys, but when a pollster called me I told him I thought 0bama was the greatest president ever, and of course I’m voting for him.

Anything to screw with their numbers....and I’m positive I ain’t the only one out there doing this......


22 posted on 09/01/2012 4:21:35 PM PDT by Emperor Palpatine (I need a good stiff drink. How 'bout you?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The Bradley Effect has morphed into the personal popularity of Obama in spite of his being a failed president. Or, as Ryan put it, he’s not a bad man, just a bad president.


23 posted on 09/01/2012 4:22:40 PM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Or just to have fun with ‘em......


24 posted on 09/01/2012 4:22:53 PM PDT by Emperor Palpatine (I need a good stiff drink. How 'bout you?)
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To: Yossarian

The Bradley Effect was NOT in play at all in the last election- in fact it might have gone the opposite way

Even though I knew better than to vote for him I was hoping finally electing a black man might end the racist talk about not having equality

A cood chunk of people who did vote for him realize this was wrong too, and will not vote for him again


25 posted on 09/01/2012 4:23:36 PM PDT by Mr. K ("The spread of evil is the symptom of a vacuum [of good]")
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To: Nuc 1.1

I remember that.

Ol’ Frank looked like he was gonna puke.....


26 posted on 09/01/2012 4:27:46 PM PDT by Emperor Palpatine (I need a good stiff drink. How 'bout you?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I fear what’s happening with Obama is more the Bell Curve than the Bradley Effect.


27 posted on 09/01/2012 4:34:29 PM PDT by baa39
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

There was no Bradley effect in 2008. Its a myth.


28 posted on 09/01/2012 4:47:51 PM PDT by JerseyDvl (Cogito Ergo Doleo Soetoro, ABO and of course FUBO!)
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To: Future Snake Eater

We have had 4 years to evaluate the ‘messiah’ so I do think that the numbers are not accurate for Obama. I think people will vote what they really think in November.


29 posted on 09/01/2012 4:48:08 PM PDT by cradle of freedom (Long live the Republic !)
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To: JerseyDvl

The Badley Effect was in play over 40 years ago.....that was a different political demographic. This is a lazy column & dead wrong.


30 posted on 09/01/2012 5:00:42 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
There are a number of probable voters who will not answer pollsters questions one way or the other. They are usually dropped as non-responses.

That action distorts the results and hides serious disaffection from both candidates.

31 posted on 09/01/2012 5:02:03 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Mr. K

Here’s a few factors that come to mind:

1) We’ve elected a minority president. Been there, done that, it’s in the books and can’t help Obama any more (and his lack of performance may serve to hinder qualified minorities in the future).

2) Obama is not the hip, slick candidate he was four years ago. The college vote was heavy 4 years ago because it was cool to vote for the dashing young black guy that was going to give you stuff. Those kids have now graduated into a jobless world and are probably a little less idealistic than they once were. Note how less-than-enthused the college kids are today vs. 4 years ago.

3) The press is not worshiping Obama like they did 4 years ago. Newsweek is a good example of the press then and the press now—Messiah 4 years ago, time to go today.

4) Style is not king in this election. People are going to vote with their wallets this time around. Ideology voting is a rich man’s sport. When your bank account is low or you have no job you set ideology aside and vote for the guy that’s going to get the job done regardless of style.


32 posted on 09/01/2012 5:03:52 PM PDT by randog (Tap into America!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I was polled one time and have to admit that I felt guilty about my honest answers, so I would totally understand how a person could respond in a way to try to give the pollster the answer they seem to be looking for. And most polls have loaded questions to drop hints as to what their perceived ‘right answers’ should be. That, and Dem oversampling tends to indicate that results coming from the privacy of the voting booth will not match the polls that have come out thus far.


33 posted on 09/01/2012 5:07:30 PM PDT by Two Kids' Dad ((((( 0bama's real campaign slogan should be 'Fearward' since he has nothing else to offer )))))
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To: JerseyDvl

Or maybe it was offset by the ‘white guilt’ vote?


34 posted on 09/01/2012 5:12:18 PM PDT by Two Kids' Dad ((((( 0bama's real campaign slogan should be 'Fearward' since he has nothing else to offer )))))
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To: Nuc 1.1
Obama can't be in good shape if a democrat controlled dump like Connecticut is in play for Romney. Who do these pollsters call anyway? I never met one person who was ever called by a pollster.
35 posted on 09/01/2012 5:13:02 PM PDT by peeps36 (America is being destroyed by filthy traitors in the political establishment)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Could it also be a cover for pollsters and pundits to cover for the skew in the numbers caused by suspected/ascetained/predicted illegal-fraudulent voters?
That gives them cover for the high margins of difference in actual outcomes because of the real to dead voters and results of said anomalies.

That is depressing.
36 posted on 09/01/2012 5:21:21 PM PDT by JSteff ((((It was ALL about SCOTUS. Most forget about that and HAVE DOOMED us for a generation or more.))))
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To: smoothsailing
Wouldn’t a smart pollster be able to approximate the effect and allow for it in his sample size? The top pollsters, like say Rasmussen or Gallop, would probably be the best at dealing with it.

It's much harder than you would guess.

37 posted on 09/01/2012 5:43:20 PM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: JSteff

Good point.


38 posted on 09/01/2012 5:44:42 PM PDT by thecodont
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The Bradley Effect is a crock. I lived in CA back then. Bradley endorsed Prop 15 which would have stopped the sale of any more handguns in CA. As a result, tons more conservatives turned out to vote than the pollsters had planned on. They voted against Bradley because of Bradley’s endorsement of the gun control proposition, not because he was black


39 posted on 09/01/2012 6:01:29 PM PDT by meepsch
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To: Yossarian

Yes this is the dumbest reason ever for a Romney win. It was touted for days and weeks here on Free Republic. Never happened. If we have to beat Obama using the Bradley Effect, we don’t deserve to win. Yep it is that bad that millions of other reasons to vote for Romney can be used.


40 posted on 09/01/2012 6:06:17 PM PDT by napscoordinator (Paul Ryan/Rick Santorum 2012....That would be the best scenario ever.)
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To: LongWayHome

You are right, there was no Bradley Effect in 2008. Why would there be? It was “cool” to support Obama. Some were proud to admit so. This year, I would bet that is not the case, and there will be a reason for the Bradley Effect to have an impact. In 2008 it was PC to support him, this year it is not PC to vote against him.


41 posted on 09/01/2012 6:27:15 PM PDT by BizBroker (Democrats- Don't want 'em, Don't need 'em, Can't use 'em, Couldn't afford 'em if I did!)
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To: BizBroker

The “Bradley Effect” no longer exists in any real way these days. I suspect this election wil be more like the Carter election....people will just have had enough.


42 posted on 09/01/2012 6:43:47 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: SaxxonWoods

It’s not the Bradley effect, it’s the Political Correctness effect, and the fact that lefties have become so vociferous, rude and unable to live and let live. Many normal people have decided they’d rather not put up with the ugly behavior. So they keep quiet and bide their time.

There is some merit to the writer’s idea. I think his interpretation of why this is happening has problems.


43 posted on 09/01/2012 7:01:31 PM PDT by SaxxonWoods (....The days are long, but the years are short.....)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Romney is ahead of where Reagan was at this point in 1980. We know how that turned out.


44 posted on 09/01/2012 7:03:58 PM PDT by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

We heard all this noise in 2008. The polls turned out to be close to dead-on on election day. There is no “Bradley Effect.”


45 posted on 09/01/2012 7:30:39 PM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The illusory “Bradley Effect is what some of us will hang their hat on to soothe themselves over polling data that appears discouraging. Then, after the election, they`ll blame voter fraud.

Forget the folly of placing hope in the “Bradley Effect.” It didn`t play a factor in 2008, and it won`t play now.


46 posted on 09/01/2012 7:40:12 PM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: Uncle Slayton

You and I must be the only people who actually read the American Thinker article about the Bradley Effect. Just because McCain lost doesn’t mean there was no Bradley Effect.

Had there not been a Bradley Effect Obama would have won a much larger plurality.

” CBS poll near election day predicted that McCain would win the white vote by a mere 3%, and on election day the Republican actually brought in 12% more of the vote than the Democrat. Had it not been for an unusually high turnout among blacks and minorities, Obama’s landslide would have been a lot closer.”

I’m sure the Bradley Effect and Shy Tory Syndrome will help Romney significantly, and most certainly it is showing up in their private polling.

No way do I believe these lying polls showing a tight race.


47 posted on 09/01/2012 7:52:46 PM PDT by A'elian' nation (Political correctness does not legislate tolerance; it only organizes hatred. Jacques Barzun)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Don’t know if the Bradley Effect had much impact in 2008, but the new Bradley Effect, if Obama wins again, will be tanks in the streets...


48 posted on 09/02/2012 2:32:46 AM PDT by trebb ("If a man will not work, he should not eat" From 2 Thes 3)
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To: ProudFossil
They are diverse all right...as long as the various ethnic groups stay on their respective plantations. When the people the demon-rats use wake up there will be hell to pay.
49 posted on 09/02/2012 8:57:02 AM PDT by Nuc 1.1 (Nuc 1 Liberals aren't Patriots. Remember 1789!)
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To: Emperor Palpatine
He could barley spit it out. “It looks like...it looks like...a Regan landslide.” Happened about 2100 eastern. Boy do we date ourselves.
:D)
50 posted on 09/02/2012 8:59:47 AM PDT by Nuc 1.1 (Nuc 1 Liberals aren't Patriots. Remember 1789!)
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