Posted on 09/01/2012 3:42:44 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
At time of writing, polls show the race for the presidency to be tight. General consensus seems to be that whoever wins, the 2012 election will be won by a bat squeak.
Yet to many, especially those of us on the right, it seems peculiar that Obama is still remotely in the race. With highunemployment, minimal GDP growth, a 100% increase in food stamp costs, and out-of-control spending, many conservatives are asking how just under half of the American population can possibly want more of the same.
While it is not possible now to get into the many reasons certain people will vote Democrat in November, I propose that all polls, not just left-leaning polls, may be being strongly misled by their data, and Romney/Ryan may actually have a huge lead not seen in polls.
It is my contention that this is due to a mix of the infamous Bradley effect and what is known in Britain as "the Shy Tory Factor," with both coming together to exaggerate just how popular Obama is in America.
The Bradley effect is a much-debated polling distortion that is easy to demonstrate but difficult to prove. The idea that when a black or minority candidate is on the ticket against a white candidate, certain voters may lie under pressure from a pollster, worried about being seen as a racist for choosing the white candidate over the minority, sounds highly plausible. The consequence, should the Bradley effect be in play, would be a skewed poll indicating that the minority candidate is in better political shape than his or her opponent...
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Nope. The “Bradley Effect” was the “Great White Hope” (heh) in 2008, and it didn’t pan out.
It went just the opposite way, as dimwits saw it as a way to purge their souls of guilt.
I heard this idea touted incessantly in 2008. It was B.S. then, too.
We will find out in 2 months.
The “Bradley Effect” was probably more viable before Political Correctness became absolute law of the land.
Without question, the Bradley Effect is a factor in this election as it proved to be a major factor in the 2008 election.
The Bradley effect lasted way past the 2008 election.
You don’t think that there are a percentage of voters who lie to pollsters for fear of being thought of as racists?
It makes sense. In a poll a voter will react emotionally and say yes to the feel good choice.
In the voting both, feelings fade and the analytical choice is for the best candidate.
The Bradly Effect will be what pollsters and the media will blame, instead of the horrible D/R/I sample.
If there are then they’re statistically insignificant. You don’t remember hearing all about the “Bradley Effect” prior to the 2008 election? Every other article on FR mentioned it as a reason that McCain/Palin were going to win. Some effect...
I don’t know about any Bradley effect, but it looks pretty good to me. If the polls were honest, I think Obama would be 10 points down.
If the Bradley effect influences 3-4% of the electorate, that’ll likely be enough. I believe it is at least that big this time around
Yep, I remember it being talked about in ‘08 too. Didn’t quite work out.
good question..
I’m not terribly concerned. As long as Romney can bring together a coalition of 2008 McCain voters, moderate Republicans that were turned off by the candidates (Palin, McCain or both) and voted Obama, with a good chunk of Independents/conservative Dems he shouldn’t have any trouble.
Watching Fox news tonight there were a lot of videos of Romney and Ryan with crowds, surrounded by crowds, people everywhere. Equal time was given to Obama but it was always a stage with about two to three dozen behind him, nothing of the crowd in front of the stage except in one case they showed him walking up to the stage with about a dozen people visible in front of it.
Another observation, of the three dozen people behind Obama there were only two blacks, the rest were all white. I thought his party was diversified.
“The Bradly Effect will be what pollsters and the media will blame, instead of the horrible D/R/I sample.”
Good point!
I never heard of the Shy Tories, but that is cute.
I have heard that the “Bradly Effect” is not actually real, the details of which I cannot recount. But I do well remember the David Dinkins/Rudy Giuliani rematch election and it is that election that this current pres race seems comparable to.
Dinkins was elected the first black mayor of NYC and maybe he was a well intentioned fellow. What did him in, as many may remember, was (were?) the Crown Heights Riots (or pogrom might be a better word) that resulted from an Orthodox Jewish man running over and killing a young black child, Gavin Kato (sp?). During these riots an young Orthodox Student was stabbed to death, while his killers yelled “kill the Jew”.
I’m sorry, I don’t remember the name of the Jewish man who was killed.
Now, this was all bad enough, but what damned Dinkins was his lackadaisical response. It was even said that he advised: let them have 3 days to riot. I won’t say that is true at this point, but it was “out there” if you know what I mean.
Well, after this debacle it was still being urged to vote for Dinkins, because if you didn’t you were....can you guess it? That’s right a RAAAAAACIST.
Well, thank Providence he lost and the rest, as they say, is history.
But, I was reminded by another person that that race between Dinkins and Giuliani was very, very, very close.
So, I’m not sure what to think about this current race, other than this: appeals to be “not racist” and “give the black guy a chance” will NOT work, after the black guy has been given a chance by non-racist americans.
It didn’t work for Dinkins and it won’t work for Obama.
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