Posted on 09/17/2012 10:16:36 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Josh Barro:
You can mark my prediction now: A secret recording from a closed-door Mitt Romney fundraiser, released today by David Corn at Mother Jones, has killed Mitt Romney’s campaign for president.
Josh Marshall:
It’s rare when the impact of some gaffe or embarrassment or revelation isn’t overstated on first blush. But this may just be that rare exception. This tape strikes me as absolutely devastating.
Whoa, whoa, whoa. Hasn’t the 2012 campaign taught us not to jump the gun with various “gaffes”? (Yes, I will be using scare quotes throughout.) In fact, didn’t the 2008 campaign teach us this too? Here is my old graph with the 2008 Democratic primary polls, noting Obama’s comment about “bitter” voters who “cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”
No movement in the polls after the story broke. Let’s do some from the 2012 general election thus far:
No discernible or certainly consequential movement because of Obama’s two “gaffes.” The only movement after Romney’s comments about the Libya attack is in his favor, thanks largely to the probably inevitable tightening after Obama’s convention bump.
The best case for saying that “gaffes matter” is that actual voters are persuaded to change their minds because of the gaffes. If they don’t, then it’s tough to argue that “gaffes” are really “game-changers.” And, in fact, usually voters don’t change their minds. See, for example, Michael Tesler’s and my analyses of the impact of “the private sector is doing fine.”
The best argument you can make about these gaffes is sort of a woolly counterfactual: “Well, if it hadn’t been for the release of Romney’s video today, Romney would have been able to accomplish X, Y, and Z, which would have helped him win the election.” Like any counterfactual, there is some plausibility—yes, Romney would rather talk about the unemployment rate than these comments.
But like any counterfactual, it’s predicated on assumptions about what the world would have looked like without these comments. And given the tenuousness of any such assumptions, and the (at best) small effects that single events in any presidential general election campaign tend to have, I would stop well short of calling this video “devastating.”
Many a news cycle was built on a “gaffe” with a remarkably short shelf life.
good points. not to mention, the polls are rigged.
even when it was Hillary vrs Obama.
(like the lastest CBS poll, at D+13 !)
Clinging to guns and Bibles was offensive.
Romney pointed out what various news stories already stated. The “takers” weren’t voting for him anyway.
People that were going to vote against Obama heard something they liked.
People that hate Romney and Republicans heard something they did not like.
Everyone else is too busy with Justin Bieber and the fall TV lineup.
When the bombs start flying against Iran no one will even remember this.
The only “gaffes” in recent memory that had any staying power were “I was for it before I was against it” and “I never had sex with that woman”, Clinton’s only memorable line after 20 years of running his mouth.
Well John, You may mark my words now.
Obama killed Chris Stephan’s and 3 others with ineptitude.
He has killed the economy and the first amendment.
FUBO!
It seems to me that this election is far too polarized to be affected by perceived “gaffes”. It’s strange, but gaffes seem to have more devastating effects in every other election whether it be senate and house races, or primaries.
Rick Perry’s “oops” destroyed his campaign
Herman Cain not knowing anything about Libya
The infamous “witchcraft” facepalm
Akin’s rape comment
I’d like someone to bring up a presidential race where a candidate was destroyed by a gaffe. I can’t recall one.
The media has had a left-wing bias for a long time; but they didn't truly become a fully-fledged, actively campaigning propaganda arm for the Democratic party until Obama's first run at the presidency in 2008 (when they destroyed Sarah Palin). Amazingly, they are even worse this year. Given the attention span and general slack-jawed dipshittedness of the average American voter, I don't think this can be overcome unless Romney finds his inner Gingrich. He needs to treat the news media with the contempt they deserve, and maybe even express a little bit of contempt for our first anti-American president.
Seems to me most people do not want to be considered as “takers” so they will group themselves with the 53%.
This could be a smart move by Romney.
>> I’d like someone to bring up a presidential race where a candidate was destroyed by a gaffe. I can’t recall one. <<
Dukakis. Quayle. Palin. “Read my lips”
But what Romney did was not a gaffe.
Well, let me just say Akin hasn’t lost yet, not yet anyway.
And you left out Pawlenty’s unwillingness to say “Obamneycare” to Romeny’s face. I like Pawlenty, but that was just craven.
Maybe “I was for it before I was against it” hurt Kerry, but not so much as the TRUTHS the swiftboaters reminded America about.
And I’d say Dukakis in the tank, although one might quibble whether or not that was a gaffe. And my understanding from recent reading is that he led in the polls long after that.
Although I’ll never forget looking at that picture and hubby saying to me “Was $25 grand too much to offer for that roll of film?” (LOL, remember rolls of film? We’re old! - that was back when 25 Gs was real big money!)
And I also remember, what was that magazine SPY? I think that was what it was called, ran a “separated at birth” thing with Dukakis and the Cleveland Indians mascot “Chief Wahoo”, it cracked me up so much hubby got me an Indians sweatshirt. I still have it, maybe I should go up to Mass. and go door to door for Elizabeth Warren!
Goshdarn, we need to be of good cheer. Let’s go kick the dems to the curb this November, let’s all just try as hard as we can to make that happen. Because they are just awful.
Hey, the Republicans won’t win any prizes either, but the dems are the worst bunch of liars, phonies and bs artists you can find.
That “gaffe” just cemented my support for the guy. Previously lukewarm, I now feel I might have misjudged him a bit.
This “gaffe” shows me that he actually understands that the exchange of stand-up citizenship for government largessee status represents an existential threat to our future as a nation.
“Poland is not under soviet domination”
Actually, this is way overblown (duh!). I think there are quite a few seniors in that 47% category that would never DREAM of voting for Obama. How does the guv not know this?
I’m in your camp.
Prior to this, I thought Romney was just another Rockefeller Republican.
Now I’m starting to think that he might ‘get it’.
Starting to. I’m still not convinced, because he’s back-peddling on the comment, and his speech didn’t talk about what to DO about the 47% who are head-down at Uncle’s feed bunk.
A strange world we live in when the truth is labelled a “gaffe.”
Actually he said “Eastern Europe,” not Poland. It wasn’t really a gaffe until he insisted he didn’t misspeak (actually intending Western Europe.) When he dug his heals in, he looked quite stupid — and, he was.
that sums it up perfectly
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