Kimball Political Consulting Results for 10-12, 10-13 VA Poll (Romney 54%, Obama 43%)

Kimball Political Consulting ^ | October 15, 2012

[2ndDivisionVet]

Methodology (Caller ID)

All respondents interviewed in this study were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in the state of Virginia using a probability sampling method of landlines for a total sample of N=696 registered “likely” voters. The Margin of Error for the sample is +/- 3.7% with a confidence level of 95%.

The survey was administered using an Automated Telephone Interviewing (ATI) system. The ATI system allows data to be entered directly into a computerized database through the numbers on interviewee’s phone, providing a highly reliable system of data collection.

A random sample of registered voters statewide was purchased from Aristotle Voter Lists, a leading supplier of voter lists to the survey research industry.

A screening question was asked to all participants regarding how likely there were to vote in the November 6, 2012 General Election. Only those who answered “very likely” were included into the sample.

The survey was conducted on Friday October 12 between 6 and 8pm and again on Saturday the 13, between 1:00 and 7:30pm.

There was a response rate of 28% for this survey (4,301 people were contact and 1,224 entered the survey)...

[2ndDivisionVet]

Governor (P) Romney is even up by 3% in NORTHERN VIRGINIA!! My goodness!

[paudio]

...probability sampling method of landlines...

This may skew the results toward Romney. Younger voters (say <30yo) tend to have cell phone only, and they--relatively speaking--tend to vote for 0bama than other age groups.

[MacMattico]

Please be true! Four relatives in N. Virginia voting Romney, don't know how they voted before, which means probably Obama because they didn't mention it to me!

[fortheDeclaration]

Also less likely to vote.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Ping!

[2ndDivisionVet]

Ping!!

[Viennacon]

Young people don’t vote in large numbers, so the skewing might make it more accurate. I think Virginia will go Romney.

[paudio]

Oh, I agree that Romney will get VA. However, this 11% is a bit suspicious to me. Yes, younger voters are less likely to vote so they don't vote in large numbers (relatively), but there are many 'older' people who rely on cell phone only now. At least 30% of the households only use cellphone. A survey that only has land line would miss all of them. Cell phone addiction threatens polling industry

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks 2ndDivisionVet. Obuhbyebama ping.

[fortheDeclaration]

I agree with that, 13% is way too high.