The Democratic Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

The Washington Post's The Monkey Cage ^ | January 18, 2014 | John Sides

[2ndDivisionVet]

My Post colleague Dan Balz has some very interesting reporting from Democratic and Republican strategists. Both groups seem somewhat pessimistic about the GOP’s chances in 2016:

A recent conversation with a veteran of GOP presidential campaigns raised this question: Which, if any, of the recent battleground states are likely to become more Republican by 2016? The consensus: very few.

That reality highlights one problem Republicans face as they seek to regain the White House after six years under President Obama. Lots of factors affect elections: The quality of the candidates, the state of the economy, the effectiveness of the campaigns. But in a country whose demographics continue to change, Republicans will begin this campaign with one significant disadvantage.

Demographics are certainly one factor worth considering. But it’s worth taking a minute to see what a few of those others factors suggest. It might give that veteran of GOP presidential campaigns more hope.

In April 2012, two other political scientists — Seth Hill and Lynn Vavreck — and I did a presidential election forecasting model for The Washington Post. The model had only three factors: The change in gross domestic product in the first two quarters of the election year, the president’s approval rating as of June of that year and whether the incumbent was running. That model forecast that Obama would win in 2012, and — although there is nothing magic about this model — it was ultimately accurate within a percentage point.

It is far too early to do a formal forecast for 2016. The economic and political conditions in that year will be paramount. But given that at least some in the GOP appear pessimistic as of today, it’s worth asking...

[OneWingedShark]

When Republicans are in the majority, they govern like they are in the minority.
When Republicans are in the minority, the govern like they’ll never again become the majority party.

I've come to the conclusion that the Republican party is not for any of its stated platform planks — even if they were incompetent and had a drive for their stated planks they'd have more success than their plan of constant roll-over.

I made a brochure about it:
The Tao of Republican Orthodoxy
[Direct Link]

[elkfersupper]

That's what they call themselves and what the media calls them.

Check the designation next time you vote.

Don't vote for any of them, just check the designation of party affiliation.

[JLS]

Could be that he is warning the rest of the media. Until Obama, the Dim strategy to win the white has has been to nominate some southerner, LBJ, Carter, Clinton, who could attract a few extra low information voters who would still believe a southern Dim is conservative. Obama showed that they could also win by nominated a black candidate and win on increased black turnout.

Do they have a southern candidate for 2016? A black candidate? Will a women candidate increase female turnout and work the same for them as Obama did in 2008?

[Revolting cat!]

2016 will show if it makes sense any longer to challenge the designated candidates, or incumbents on national level. It no longer makes sense in most districts on local level. What is the number, 97% (?) of Congresscritters running for re-election win? Are any US Senators beatable? State legislators and senators? Not where I hang my Che Guevara hat!

[PubliusMM]

After 2012? Put nothing past the dhimmicraps and the LIV voting block they manage to herd with sound bites and ‘feel good’ promises.
Also, don’t count out the cemetery vote.

[silentreignofheroes]

Or just Communists.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Charlie Crist? Jeb Bush (oh, that’s right, he’s supposedly GOP!) or Abortion Barbie? Sybrina Fulton or Rachel Jeantel?

[zeestephen]

RE: “Not true; NM went Republican for Bush's election, and has Susana Martenez as gov.”

Correct, but you forgot to explain why:

Very low Hispanic turnout.

In the 2010 governor's race, only 39% of Hispanics voted for Republican Susana Martinez!

[2ndDivisionVet]

That’s a party designation signifier, like saying someone is a “Green” or a “Social Democrat” but that’s not the party name. The professor is using the party’s name.

[thestob]

And Romney lost the state by 10 points....are those demographics going to shift back in the republicans favor? Winning the governorship in a non- presidential election year is a hell of a lot different than turning that state red again in a presidential election.

[Liz]

Some retro-types say here may never be a fair election again: b/c new electronic voting machines are hackable, controllable, and can be manipulated by crooked pols.........

That stuff is old hat. Dems no longer screw around with pedestrian "vote-tampering." They mobilize the full force of the government to harass and destroy conservative opposition.

In fact, Dems openly attribute that they did not do worse in 2012 b/c of their ability to use the IRS to suppress these groups.

One WSJ writer pointed out, the Dems used “reverse engineering”...analyzing what was most successful in destroying conservative groups, and then writing it into current law.

And what's more astounding is that Dems are heralded by the Entitlement Crowd for this so-called "ability"----it's why Boobamba seems unconcerned as 2014-16 approach.

[Zhang Fei]

Interesting comment:

admittedly, I didn't actually read this piece, I skimmed through it. I have lost interest in the chances for Republicans of winning in 2016, and probably 2014. It was the Republican plan to cut COLA for military retirees in this last debt debacle. The Senate finance guy (cant call his name right now, it escapes me), in an interview said that a plan (which had bi partisan support) to take cuts from the Farm bill, in favor of cutting the COLA of military retirees came entirely from the Republican side. The Dem's, according to that guy, were in favor of cutting Farm subsidies, as well as other Federal worker retirement benifits, and leaving the military pay alone. Didn't happen. As soon as cutting military pay came up, it was sucked up and the Farm bill, for the most part was unscathed. Paul Ryan defended this by saying 'we have two years to fix this, and it is better than shutting down the Government again'. Shutting down the Government was never at risk. Republican voters are going to remember this, and all of the strides they have made have gone away.

[zeestephen]

RE: “CO and NM are hippy and illegal alien infested and will never go republican....”

New Mexico - White Voters
Romney - 56%
Obama - 41%

Colorado - White Voters
Romney - 54%
Obama - 44%

Both states have a very large Hispanic population which votes overwhelmingly for Democrats.

Also, white voter turnout in those two states was quite low in 2012, probably because the Republican Party did such a great job of demoralizing Conservative voters.

[Viennacon]

I disagree here. I don’t see Virginia as being in play any more. Ohio might be just about, but Virginia has essentially become North Virginia and the lefties control the state.

I think Colorado and Michigan will move to the tossup column instead based on current trends.

[Viennacon]

I call it the Democrat party because it pi**es off Alan Colmes.

[Viennacon]

I think the goal in general is to have lower turnout for elections, and we did see a lower turnout in 2012 than in 2008 I believe. With less people following cable news each year, tuning out politics, our electorate may become small, and that can be an advantage for us. Keeps the idiots out of the voting booth.

I think we should crack down in states where we control the governorship, on Democrat mobilization efforts on election day to just dump a load of lazy people at polling places.

[SeminoleCounty]

GOP will lose if they continue to follow the Chamber of Commerce and Business Roundtable groups. Dump the leftist groups and agenda

[OneWingedShark]

And Romney lost the state by 10 points....are those demographics going to shift back in the republicans favor? Winning the governorship in a non- presidential election year is a hell of a lot different than turning that state red again in a presidential election.

Question:
Given the record of the republican party in the last decade, should any state be voting Republican?

Consider their stellar performance on issues such as: NSA-spying, IRS-targeting, budget-constraining, holding government accountable [Fast & Furious], and it's starting to look like they'll oppose amnesty just as hard as they've been opposing ObamaCare.

[ought-six]

The GOP will never again win a national election, simply because the electoral numbers are against them. The Dims have more than 2/3 of the required 270 without lifting a finger, because they have an absolute lock on those states, and the GOP has no chance at all of making any inroads there. Hell, the Dims can nominate and run a rancid turd and they are guaranteed that 2/3.

[zeestephen]

RE: “I think Colorado and Michigan will move to the tossup column instead based on current trends.”

I'd be surprised if that happens, just too many non-white voters in those two states.

I think our best bets are Iowa and Ohio, where white voters are above 80% in both states.

Frankly, I don't see how we win in 2016.

If we nominate another center-left candidate, even more Conservatives will stay home than stayed home in 2012.

If we nominate a true Conservative like Cruz or Palin, we will demoralize center-left Republicans, who will spend six months attacking Conservatives, then THEY will stay home.