Posted on 03/04/2014 7:40:03 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
e are already at the point in this prematurely unfolding 2016 presidential campaign when a glance down the list of prospective candidates can cause most observers to wince. As that seductive and sultry crooner Peggy Lee once sang, “Is that all there is?”
At the U.Va. Crystal Ball, we currently have 11 Republicans and nine Democrats as probable or possible presidential contenders. The Democrats have fewer and more tentative contenders because of the paralyzing gravitational pull of “Planet Hillary,” as the New York Times Magazine described the Clinton operation. The former secretary of state is a kind of massive Jupiter in a solar system that may not have many more worlds if she runs.
The Republicans have a sharply different problem. They have plenty of wannabes but no obvious general election winner. It’s not that we can’t construct scenarios by which this or that GOP nominee will capture the White House three years hence. Rather, it is that no one on the present list seems able to convincingly combat the growing demographic edge that produces a Democratic lead in the Electoral College.
Republicans probably won’t believe this assertion once they do reasonably well in this November’s low-turnout, red state-skewed midterm election; they’ll fool themselves again, just as they did after their 2010 midterm triumph, when the most frequently heard GOP comment was, “Even my dog could beat President Obama in 2012.”
Maybe Obama will be so unpopular by 2016, or the economy bad enough, that the Democratic nominee simply can’t win. But if the general election turns out to be closely competitive, as most open-seat contests for the White House are, who among the Republicans can redraw an Electoral College map that’s strongly in the Democrats’ favor?(continued)
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
Neither Thomas Jefferson nor Abraham Lincoln ever ran much of anything before gaining the presidency.
PALIN/WEST??? Naaaaaaah, they’d scare the hell out of the NYT staff. Actually, if they were ever nominated, I’d say give it your best shot, maybe the idiots will open their eyes for a change. No mater who the Republicans put up, its going to be a dirty up hill battle and the good ole boy candidates won’t fight back. I believe the Palin West combo would, and that would be shear terror for the Libs who control the Democrat party. A firebrand like Palin vs our 1st queen? What would you give to see that? The Republicans don’t have anyone to match the guts of Palin and West, except for Cruz. The Public wants to see fighters up there, they want a winner, not another Republican schlep, because real Americans love winners!
Oh how I wish there would be a Cruz-Palin ticket. I’m afraid the 2016 presidential election will be like the last one; Palin will announce she’s not running.
I really hope she announces her intentions sooner rather than later.
My guess is we should just nominate another Democrat Lite candidate. After all, that has worked out SO well for us in the last two elections. /s
I don’t know where these people get this BS. Rob Portman is the invisible man in Ohio and every other setting. So white he glows in the dark and so damn boring he puts himself to sleep. Besides one homosexual son and he flips to pro gay marriage as if that will keep junior out of the bath houses and away from the Turnpike rest arias!
Jeb Bush. He is the likely Republican nominee. He will not be the next president.
Strike Bush from that list and it makes some sense. The bushes learn nothing and a Jeb will be worse than the last two Bushes because he has their foundation to build on.
Unfortunately, I think I agree, especially if amnesty passes, but can you say President Hildebeast? Some people think we are out of our minds, but I was positive Romney would not beat the Obungler either
Soros counts the votes. Soros will win elections so long as he lives. He's past 80 but he has the best medical care that money can buy. He may well be good for 3 or 4 more cycles.
Is prefer Palin / Cruz.
My prediction is that whoever gets nominated, FR will endorse them. We went from JimRob absolutely refusing to endorse a lying, baby-killing, gun-grabbing, homosexual agenda loving statist to actually endorsing him.
We might as well just change the name to FreeRepublican.com
Yet they were both successful self made men before politics.
So was Ted Cruz, look up his bio. Heck, so was Jefferson Davis, who was much more accomplished than Lincoln even though both were well-off railroad lawyers.
Ryan was well positioned and poised to become that, but he blew it big time with his post election ‘Think I better lean left a bit’ attitude. If he had thrown his lot in with Cruz he would be the front runner now by body lengths and a threat to the Clinton wrecking crew.
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker just by his shear ability to remain standing and effective with his agenda even after the progressives threw everything they had at him. He’s a proven elected executive and may not be as Rino’ish as some will make him out to be. There is a certain reality to compromise that will sometimes leave the stinking after taste of Rino meat But I think he’ll overcome that and be embolden to be a well versed conservative that won’t be pushed around by whining Liberals — in the media or not.
Ted Cruz, love him. Disaster if he runs for President. It would probably stop the Tea party in it’s tracks losing him in the Senate to a failed candidacy. He needs a few more years in the barrel stuck away in a wine cellar.
Sarah Palin — what a perfect candidate to run opposite Hillary. She’s everything Hillary isn’t. Real wife, real mother, real woman and doesn’t need a team of handlers orchestrating her every move and utterance to disguise she’s a fascist Progressive — and inept one at that as she’ll find out as “what difference does it make” becomes her anti-slogan. But Sarah too isn’t in the right area of her life to run, perhaps that would change, but she’s positioned herself as bona fide King maker. Capable of rousing crowds, the pithy soundbite, and raising money and sticking with principles.
My current fear is she’ll be the first person to run for vice-president twice. If you know what I mean, you know, if you dont’, don’t ask.
I don’t believe she’d be the first person to run for VP twice but I’m too tired to do the research right now.
Sabato played a part in the democrat dirty trick campaign against George Allen when Allen ran for governor.
SAbato is a democrat hack, imo
lol, that wasn’t the point.
Both Jefferson and Lincoln were extraordinarily brilliant men elected at unusual moments in our nation’s history under a system that actually has changed significantly even since the time of Lincoln.
That said, I don’t know why the writer is so enthralled with Portman, about whom it’s hard to remember anything, and who strikes me as a bland and totally non-executive person.
I think experience, after the disaster of Obama the inexperienced and unable-to-learn (because he doesn’t think he needs to), we’re going to need someone with serious executive experience, and that’s one thing governors are good for.
Bush was an excellent Florida governor, but I don’t think he has much chance just because of his name. Walker might be good, although I don’t think he’s a very personable campaigner. If Palin hadn’t resigned her governorship, she would have been good. And, fortunately, I think Christie is toast because of his stupid stunts with the Port Authority punishing his enemies. You never hear him even mentioned anymore by the GOP-e.
Perhaps Jindal should be considered. There’s also my governer, Rick Scott, who has done well overall economically (while I don’t like his accomodations to Obamacare and Common Core), but is not at all a national campaign type. We also have Susanna Martinez, but I don’t know a thing about how she’s governed NM, and Nikki Haley, who is a mixed bag, from what I’ve heard from people in SC.
The author did make one good point, which is that the GOP shouldn’t be desperate to get a “minority” (a misnomer if there ever was one) or a woman as a candidate, because the Dems own that demographic and in the eyes of the press, which essentially does the publicity for the Dems, any GOP candidate automatically gives up their minority or female status simply by being Republican and will get no positive bounce for it.
Which brings us to a final thing: Americans really don’t care about competence. Obama was elected because he was a celebrity, created by the liberal press, and crazy enough on his own to believe every gushing word the press wrote about him simply because he was part black and had an exotic foreign Muslim and leftist background. There is a possibility that after experiencing the disaster created by Obama, people might want somebody more substantial next time, but I don’t have a lot of confidence in that. Still, it’s what we need: somebody who knows what he or she is doing.
Doesn’t matter who the GOP puts up. The purist conservative movement will stay home and whine about how so and so is not this or that. Just like they did the last time around. Then, they will whine and moan about how awlful the newly elected Dem President is, just like now. Those self-absorbed shoe sniffers brought us Zero and, if they have anything to say about it, will bring us Hillary.
” - - - Happy talk, campaign promises and speaking slots at national conventions - - - - “
Dr. Larry J. Sabato is well suited to be a writer for Politico, the Magazine for shallow, left-wing, low information voters. These writers pass themselves off as the “intelligentsia” of the 47 % who pay no Personal Federal Income Taxes.
IOW, they make a living as long as we keep on giving.
Larry J. makes a living by spading around in the surface layers that are rich in the manure of the words and antics of those who are in politics for the fun of it:
* Mrs. Bill “Benghazi” Clinton;
* Joe “Chains” Biden;
* John “Catchup” Kerry;
* John “Benghazi Coverup” Boehner;
* Harry “Do Nothing” Reid;
* “Son-of-a-Mitch” McConnell; and
* All loyal Obamacrat RINOs and Democrats.
It can never get to shallow for the manure-diggers and their megaphone employers at Politico, New York Times, Washington Post, Boston Globe, LA Times, Huff-Puff Post, MSNBC, NBC, CBS, ABC, and, of course, the Clinton News Network, CNN.
_____________
What Larry J. ignores is what is interesting. Listed below are a few topics as follows:
* Whereas Larry J. is a true believer in the school of thought that “The Man Makes the History,” the opposite is less easy to prove, but has many adherents, including yours truly.
* Larry J. gives the impression, IMHO of course, that an understanding of basic motivation factors are not necessary to predict election success or failure.
For example, Larry J. mentions “decades of partisan polarization,” and “smoke and mirror budgets,” but does not dig deeper through that shallow political manure layer to opine on the root causes of polarization and economic deception that motivate voters at a basic level.
Note: Here I make the assumption that one basic motivation factor for voters is that they “always vote their pocketbook.”
Ponder these questions:
* What if our polarization was directly related to numerical value our total National Poverty Debt?
* Has our failure to punish politicians who have not been good stewards of our tax dollars done the following:
* weakened our desire to enforce the US Constitution;
* decreased our belief in making a profit by honest hard work; and
* acceptance of the permissive “boys-will-be-boys” attitude toward the politicians that we pay to Regulate us?
* Are we, the voters, the root cause of the political tyranny that now controls everything we do?
IOW, have we created the optimum conditions for us to become victims of tyranny?
It is always easy to point the finger of blame towards others, but notice how many fingers are pointing back at you - - - .
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