Posted on 04/14/2016 7:09:11 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
* Trump convention manager Paul Manafort told Sean Hannity that Cruz will “probably finish third in delegates in April.” But… Cruz has already won 88 of the 107 delegates awarded in the month.
* There is no way Kasich can catch Cruz.
* Finally, even giving Trump 81 out of 95 delegates in New York, there is a strong likelihood Cruz may still finish first in delegates for the month.
Trump convention manager Paul Manafort’s delegate skills may be a little rusty. He claimed on Hannity last night that Ted Cruz will “probably finish third in delegates in April.” An absurd statement on its face. Of the 107 delegates so far awarded in April, Cruz has won 88 of them—that’s 82 percent of the delegates. Trump has won seven, or 6.5 percent. Twelve delegates are uncommitted. There is no plausible path for Kasich to overtake Cruz for second, if in fact Cruz ends up in second.
Watch the full clip from the Fox News interview below:
(VIDEO-AT-LINK)
Here’s the pertinent quote:
Manafort: I think we’re doing very well in all those places. All the polls show us leading and we’re just starting to put our campaigns together there… June 7th is going to put us over but we’re not going to have to win overwhelmingly on June 7th… April is going to be a very bad month for Ted Cruz. He’ll probably finish third in delegates in April.
So far in April, delegates have been chosen in three states: North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Colorado. In North Dakota, 18 members of Cruz’s slate were elected, with Trump getting one delegate, and nine delegates remaining uncommitted. In Wisconsin, Cruz received 42 delegates to Trump’s six. In Colorado, Cruz received 34 delegates with an additional three being uncommitted RNC members.
There are 281 delegates left to be selected in April. The majority is in the Northeast, and I detailed how those delegates are likely to be awarded last week. Based on more recent polling, the math may have changed but even the new math wouldn’t put Cruz in third.
Wyoming
Wyoming has already apportioned 12 of its 26 non-RNC member delegates. There are 14 more to apportion at this weekend’s state convention. If the remaining 14 are apportioned at the same ratios, Cruz should garner eleven, Trump two and Kasich one. In addition, three RNC members are unbound by party rules.
The April delegate totals will be 121 by the end of this weekend. Cruz is projected to have 99 delegates (82 percent), Trump 9 delegates (7.4 percent), Kasich 1 delegate (less than one percent), leaving 12 uncommitted.
New York
The dynamics in New York have solidified for Trump since my last delegate projection in the Empire State. The Real Clear Politics polling average has Trump at 54.3 percent, Kasich 21.3 and Cruz 18 percent, with 6.4 percent undecided.
There are a number of reasons that the polling may be high for Trump in New York, the least of all being the deadline to register as a Republican to vote in the primary. New York has not held a competitive Republican Primary in a generation. Most of the polls self-screen respondents, who say they are likely to vote in the GOP primary. If they were not registered as Republicans last October, they will not be able to vote in the GOP primary. Also, Cruz has consistently outperformed his polling numbers, especially in closed primaries; a factor that could help him in the Empire State. With those factors in mind, it is entirely possible that Trump could be kept under 50 percent. For projection purposes, let’s say that he gets 50.1 percent of the vote and Kasich and Cruz each get half of the remaining 49.9 percent. That would mean Trump earns the 14 statewide delegates.
There are 27 congressional districts in New York, and each district gets 3 delegates. If a candidate wins over 50 percent of the vote he gets all three delegates. Otherwise, the winner gets two and the runner up gets one delegate.
There are 18 congressional districts in Long Island and Greater New York City. If Trump were to win an outright majority in 14 of them, he would garner 42 delegates. Cruz should win, although not with a majority, the two most heavily Jewish districts in the city, with Trump coming in second. That would be four delegates for Cruz and an additional two for Trump. The two Hudson Valley and Westchester districts should go to Trump at under 50 percent with Kasich in second, which means an additional four for Trump and two for Kasich. After looking at Greater New York City, the delegates would be 62 for Trump, 4 for Cruz, and 2 for Kasich.
That leaves nine other districts in the state. Trump could win three of these with a majority for an additional nine delegates. Trump should win four of the remaining six, without a majority, with Cruz and Kasich splitting second place. Kasich could win the remaining two, with Trump in second place. That means upstate delegate totals should be Trump nineteen, Kasich six, and Cruz two.
Overall, we can expect Trump to win 81 delegates, Kasich 8, and Cruz 6 in New York. That would put the total delegates awarded in April at 216. Cruz would still be in the lead after New York with 105 delegates as compared to Trump’s 90, Kasich’s seven and 12 remaining uncommitted.
“ There is almost no possibility, given the already strong lead Cruz enjoys in April, for Kasich to surpass him for second, and there is a very strong likelihood that Cruz will finish in first. ”
Northeast Tuesday
The Trump campaign is overstating their strength in the remaining northeast states. There are 172 delegates remaining to be awarded on Northeast Tuesday, April 26. My projections from last week should hold up in the remaining states. You can read that article here for background information for the table below.
Trump
Cruz
Kasich
Connecticut
15
11
2
Delaware
16
0
0
Maryland
0
38
0
Pennsylvania
31
32
8
Rhode Island
8
7
4
Total Awarded
70
88
14
Not only will Cruz not finish in third in delegate count in April but there is a very good chance that he will end up finishing in first, even with Trump crushing it in New York. The final delegate count for April could very well be Cruz 193, Trump 160, and Kasich 21, with 12 uncommitted.
For a moment, however, assume that Trump wins all of Maryland, which is highly unlikely. There is no way that Kasich can surpass Cruz for third. Once again, the Trump campaign (this time, its delegate guru) overstates Trump’s case, without looking at all of the data.
There is almost no possibility, given the already strong lead Cruz enjoys in April, for Kasich to surpass him for second, and there is a very strong likelihood that Cruz will finish in first.
.
But you don’t understand; Colorado is supposed to be outraged because Trump said so.
.
You're getting kinda pathetic.
Get some balls, call Trump Hitler.
Pearl Clutcher...
Yes and no.
For the statewide haul, you have to be at 20% if the first place candidate finishes under 50% to get delegates.
However, that does not stop you from getting delegates from a Congressional District.
However, to get those delegates, you must finish with at least 20% of the vote in order to get a delegate so long as the first place finisher is under 50% in that district.
Confusing enough yet?
.
I might call Trump Hitler’s wife, but he’d have to grow some organs to play Hitler.
How about George III?
.
Yes but you explained it well. Thank you!
In a way I agree with you. But that over reaction two weeks before Wisconsin was over the top hate for trump. Yes he did a few things to deserve some but I think they went to far.
Mad I tell ya!!!
.
Babbling to your mirror?
.
Not so much.
Do you have an argument? Or are you just a shit-poster?
"Cruz Craft" has now officially been renamed "Titanic Ted."
But you hang in there my FRiend and keep rearranging those deck chairs. I see a lot of FReepers moving to Cruz (not really, haha).
Tonight it is Karl Rove conceding that it's going to be Donald Trump. Can you believe that? Oh, and the Koch Brothers also suggesting that they need to get behind the obvious candidate. That's right; Donald Trump. Oh well, there's always tomorrow. Who knows, we may hear from Ontario and Winnepeg. That could be a game changer.
Anyway, don't mind that nine degree list, it's nothing. You just keep on rearranging. God bless.
“who has close ties to people who are part of the Russian Mob, the organization has devolved into the archetype of the “snake pit” model of organizational behavior.
The Trump organization is in full panic mode.”
No, Trump has hired a pit bull who will go after the Cruz campaign’s jugular. Be afraid, be very afraid.
Those Hasidic Jews of NY aint votin for a Texan that is for sure!
That is really funny. Liked it!
The rules would have been the same no matter who won Colorado. Would you be saying the same thing if Trump had won? Of course not. Hypocrite much?
I guess a better question is, why do Cruz supporters (the guy who cannot win but can only stop the true leader from an outright win) put so much hope on a contested convention when he is proving how easy it is to manipulate the current system - do you really think they'll put Cruz on the ticket if they think there's a snowball's chance in Hell that he might win the WH?
Maybe they need to only allow those who care enough to donate to FR post/make comments - it would give us a much better picture of those who actually practice the conservative principles they claim to espouse.
Capitalism is fine. You have a problem with me not choosing to purchase his products and not listening to him anymore because he’s just a GOPe shill?
“* Finally, even giving Trump 81 out of 95 delegates in New York, there is a strong likelihood Cruz may still finish first in delegates for the month.”
What do they mean ‘finally’? NY is not the last primary in the month. There’s a slew of NE states the last week of April that are polling heavily for Trump that provide even more than NY’s 95.
Trump will end April probably 350 delegates ahead of Cruz.
Sounds like you’re in full panic mode with the crap you just made up. Every you included the word ‘alleged’.
This guy’s numbers are absurdist for the states voting at the end of the month. His analysis of NY was reasonable, so how could he possibly believe what he wrote about CT, MD, RI, and PA? He really thinks Ted Cruz, who comes in third in some MD polls, will sweep the state and each of its eight congressional districts, even though the latest poll has Trump at 47% in the state and with a significant lead in each congressional district. Trump is in a very good position to potentially take every single MD delegate. Cruz will be extremely lucky to pick off one or two congressional districts around Baltimore and D.C. for 3 or 6 delegates. There’s no way on earth he’s getting all 38 unless Trump quits before April 26.
The number of delegates that he gives Cruz in CT and RI is actually laughable. Trump looks to be in a good position to take about half the delegates in proportional RI and probably 3/4 or more of the ones in CT. Polls suggest that Cruz will fail badly there, while Trump has a big lead in all of CT’s five congressional districts and is at 50% in the state as a whole. Real Clear Politics shows Trump with a 16 point lead over Cruz in PA. (If Cruz actually does get about the same number of delegates from PA as Trump, it will be due solely to the unbound delegates ignoring the will of the voters in their state.) This writer needs to get real.
“Why are Trump supporters always having to come out after he or his campaign says something to tell us what they really meant?”
It is projection, they are changing the reality of what has actually been said by Trump or a staffer into something they want to hear.
It happens, a lot, all campaign season long.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.