Exclusive Eyewitness News Poll: Race For RI Governor

Myrth York earned the right to represent the Democrats with her slim victory in the three-way Democratic primary last week.

And Don Carcieri became the standard bearer for the Republicans with a trouncing of his opponent in the gop primary.

. Our exclusive poll of 405 likely regisitered voters provides the first glimpse into how the campaign is going.

. The Eyewitness News poll shows Myrth york has 49%... Don carcieri has 35% and 16 percent is not sure.

. Carcieri was not available, but his campaign manager said the gap is not that wide.

The poll, done from sept 12th thru the 15th, also shows York ahead in all age categories. she also leads among men who favor her 45% to 38 with 17 percent not sure...

. The candidates will be here at 8 tonight for the first televised, hour-long debate of the campaign.

. It's the candidates first joint opportunity to address voters statewide in a race that is expected a good one all the way up to election day in November.

Heck, this race is closer than I expected, although it does still look very good for the Dems.

That was my initial impression as well. But here's what Larry Sabato has to say on his website (just updated today). If he's right, York might not see better numbers than what she has right now:

"It is rare that any Republican serves in high office in Rhode Island, one of the half-dozen most Democratic states. Lincoln Almond has had that privilege, but his two terms are up. He would have likely been succeeded by attorney general Sheldon Whitehouse had he won the Democratic gubernatorial primary on September 10. But Whitehouse narrowly lost the primary to former state senator Myrth York, 39% to 38%, with a third candidate taking 22%. York is a weaker general election candidate than Whitehouse would have been, having been the losing Democratic gubernatorial nominee in both 1994 and 1998."

"While York hopes that the third time is the charm, it is extremely rare for a candidate to stage this kind of comeback. (York's patron saint will have to be U.S. Senator William Proxmire (D-Wisconsin), who was defeated for the Senate as the Democratic nominee in three consecutive elections in the 1950s before winning on his fourth attempt in 1957. Or closer to home, another patron saint for York would be Democrat Bruce Sundlun, who lost the Rhode Island governorship in 1986 and 1988 but won it on the third try in 1990.) The Republicans nominated wealthy businessman Don Carcieri by a 2 to 1 margin on September 10. Despite the Democratic nature of the state, this is a horserace, with the slightest edge to York purely on account of her name recognition and party label. However, the Crystal Ball has heard so much criticism of York from our Rhode Island correspondents in both parties that this contest will for now be moved to the toss-up category."

Oh, man ! Did you see those examples above ? The only reason why Proxmire and Sundlun won was purely due to scandal. Proxmire won the special election to succeed the recently-deceased and then-massively unpopular Joe McCarthy, and Sundlun won because of the scandals involving incumbent Gov. Ed DiPrete, but he himself couldn't even win renomination in '94 against Myrth York as the sitting Gov. What scandal is Almond leaving behind him ? Myrthie ought to take notice of a fella named Guy Millner down in GA. Millner came close to Gov in '94, blew it for Senator in '96, and was fairly toxic by his 3rd run in '98 when the favored GOPer, Mike Bowers, dropped out, despite claims of "3rd time's the charm" business would put Guy over the top against some obscure State Senator named Roy Barnes. Don't get me wrong, it is her's to lose, and if Carcieri doesn't get on the ball, he might, but I still wouldn't bet the farm on Myrth's victory.

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