Armchair scouting report in depth - Michigan 2004 (County by County)

I wanted to post the whole database, but it was over 1.5 MB in html format, so I have to post the long version instead of the REALLY long version.

Bush lost Michigan by 217,279 votes. Gore got 51%, Bush 46%, Nader 2%, the rest(Buchanan, Philips, Browne, Haglin) 1%. He needs to get 115,000 Gore voters to switch to win.

The UP:
Bush 70253 – 51%
Gore 63791 – 46%
Nader 3941 – 3%
Others – 827 – 1%
Difference – Bush won by 6462

This is a historically democrat area. Bush over performed here, largely on social issues. Socially conservative, economically liberal.

Alger County – Bush by 71 – 49%
Bush’s best – Munsing Township, won by 162
Gore’s best – Rock River Township, won by 51

Baraga County – Bush by 436 – 54%
Bush’s best – L’anse Township by 233
Gore’s best – Won Spurr township by 5

Bush’s best – Won Pickford Township by 277
Gore’s best – Won Bay Mills Township by 71

This is a key county. Granholm beat Posthumus here. This is where Sault Ste Marie is, where 1/3 of the county’s votes are. Bush won there by 67. Tahquamenon Falls is here and a major tourist attraction(as is the Soo). Bay Mills is heavily minority (Chippewa). That’s why he lost it.

Delta County – Bush by 901 – 51%
Bush’s best - Escanaba Township by 280
Gore’s best – Gladstone by 51

Another key county. Granholm won with 50% Bush also almost won the city of Escanaba, and he won the township. This is a historicaly democrat area, but conservative. Packer country.

Dickinson County – Bush by 1399 – 54%
Bush’s best – Breitung Township by 597
Gore’s best – Norway by 91

Gogebic County – Gore by 140 – 49%
Bush’s best – Watersmeet Township by 140
Gore’s best – Ironwood by 375

The 2nd most Democrat county in the UP. Granholm got 58% here and won by 980. Holding Gore to 49% here was impressive. This is in the far West UP on the Wisconsin Border and near Minnesota.

Houghton County – Bush by 2207 – 56%
Bush’s best – Calumet Township by 562
Gore’s best – Adams Township by 52

Bush won every township or city here except for one. Houghton, Hancock, Calumet, and Portage Townships are the most populous, and all of them went for Bush. Postumus won here by the skin of his teeth. Gore only had 40% here.

Iron County – Gore by 47 - 49%
Bush’s Best – Iron River Township by 150
Gore’s best - Caspian by 137

The 3rd most Dem County in the UP. Granholm won by 412 and had 54%. Gore had 49%. Gore won 7 of the townships or cities, and Bush won 5 of them, and only lost Iron River City, the most populous area by 10 votes. Crystal Falls was where Bush lost the most. He lost the city and township there. Gore got 62% in Caspian.

Keweenaw County – Bush by 200 – 55%
Bush’s Best – Eagle Harbor Township by 58
Gore was swept.

This is where Isle Royal is, and also Copper Harbor, 600 miles away from where I’m at.

Luce County – Bush by 524 – 58%
Bush’s Best – Lakefield township by 208
Gore was swept – Newberry wasn’t kind to him. This is near Taquahnemon falls as well, and just West of the Soo. Granholm won this area with 52% on a low turnout. This is not a gimme county for Bush.

Mackinac County – Bush by 739 – 55%
Bush’s best – Clark Township by 262
Gore’s best – Moran Township by 37

A very large county that goes from Drummond Island, west through, St Ignace, Mackinac Island, all the way almost to Mantistique.

Marquette County – Gore by 2926 – 53%
Bush’s best – Chocolay Township by 142
Gore’s best – Marquette by 1142

The most dem county in the UP. Marquette, Ishpeming, and Neqaunee are a 1,2,3 punch that makes it almost impossible for a Republican to win here. Bush ‘only’ lost by 10% here. Granholm won by 18%. Heavily union I believe, and Northern Michigan University is up there as well. If Bush can make this county a 6 pt race in 2004, I’ll be impressed. I hope for a major snowstorm, although Marquette is used to it.

Menominee County – Bush by 932 – 53%
Bush’s best – Ingallston Township by 125
Gore’s best – City of Menominee by 255

I think this is right near Green Bay Wisconsin. Bush did very well, winning all outside the city.

Ontonagon County – Bush by 958 – 60%
Bush’s best – Ontonagon Township by 456
Gore was swept.

Posthumus won this by the skin of his teeth. Bush overperformed here and won every township. Between Houghton and Ironwood along Lake Superior.

Schoolcraft County – Bush by 52 – 50%
Bush’s best – Germfask Township by 85
Gore’s best – City of Manistique by 143

Bush overperformed here. Granholm won this county by 7% Between Escanaba and St Ignace on Lake Michigan.

Bush 43335 – 50%
Gore 40970 – 47%
Nader 1754 – 2%
Other 404 – 0
Difference – Bush by 2562

Bush and Posthumus performed equally in most of this area. Generally, what would work politically in the UP would work well here too. Bush only needs 100,000 dems to switch, so this area is important.

Cheboygan County – Bush by 1331 – 54%
Bush’s Best – Tuscarora Township by 347
Gore’s Best – Forest Township by 20

Presque Isle County – Bush by 314 – 51%
Bush’s Best – Presque Isle Township by 131
Gore’s Best – Posen Township by 65

Montmorency County – Bush by 611 – 55%
Bush’s Best – Montmorency Township by 156
Gore’s Best – Loud Township by 2

Alpena County – Gore by 284 – 50%
Bush’s Best – Ossineke Township by 187
Gore’s best – City of Alpena by 639

Granholm received 57% and won this Lake Huron county by 1669. It’s a union county, although pro-gun. This is also a county where they have the TB deer problems, and the DNR isn’t popular at all up here. Bush did well here, and maybe can make a run for Alpena in 04. He needs to take some dem areas to win, and this is probably his best shot (along with the UP) . A lot of conservative democrats.

Oscoda County – Bush by 530 – 55%
Bush’s Best – Comins Township by 306
Gore was swept

Alcona County – Bush by 456 – 53%
Bush’s Best – Harrisville Township by 150
Gore’s best – Curtis Township by 53

Ogemaw County – Gore by 190 – 50%.
Bush’s Best – West Branch Township by 158
Gore’s Best – Mills Township by 400

West Branch is marginal GOP, Rose City heavily GOP. Mills Township(somewhere near Prescott and Skidway Lake) is what stuck out to me though. It has the largest population, but why is it so much more dem than the other areas in the county? It has a 21% poverty rate. That’s why. The rest are mostly marginal either way. Between Tawas City and Roscommon.

Iosco County – Gore by 160 – 49%
Bush’s Best – Baldwin Township by 106
Gore’s Best – Plainfield Township by 196

Roscommon County – Gore by 243 – 50%
Bush’s Best – Gerrish Township by 169
Gore’s Best - Richfield Township by 330

Both similar to Ogemaw. Roscommon should be ours. That’s prime hunting and outdoors area. We SHOULD win all three of those counties. Iosco is on Lake Huron, and Roscommon is home to Higgins and Houghton Lake, prime fishing areas.

Bush 85955 – 57%
Gore 59915 – 40%
Nader 4760 – 3%
Other 1009 – 1%
Bush by 26040

This area has more money than the NE lower and the UP. It’s also rural and has the same social conservatism as the rest of the northlands and is a major part of the GOP base. Bush won this area by 26,000 votes. Many of these areas are growing rapidly, and hunting, skiing, snowmobiling, and golfing is huge there. Sprawl is an issue here that could hurt. A lot of NIMBYs and some greens. A pro-life, anti-tax, pro-gun platform runs well. The best thing that could happen here though – a snow free election day. This is God’s country there.

Emmet County – Bush by 3151 – 58%
Bush best – Bear Creek Township by 680
Gore best – Center Township by 1

Solid GOP area. The towns around Little Traverse Bay anchor this area which goes up to the Mackinac Bridge. Harbor Springs and Petoskey is big money.

Charlevoix County – Bush by 2060 – 56%
Bush Best – Eveline Township by 225
Gore Best – Tied Bush in St James Township

Solid GOP area. Charlevoix is a big money town on Lake Michigan. Boyne City and Falls are big outdoors areas. South of Petoskey.

Antrim County – Bush by 2451 – 59%
Bush Best – Banks Township by 371
Gore was swept

Elk Rapids is near Traverse City. Mancelona is ½ way between Gaylord and Traverse City. Solid GOP

Otsego County – Bush by 2074 – 58%
Bush Best – Bagley Township by 660
Gore was swept

Right on I-75. Solid GOP, and Bagley (I think right outside Gaylord) is the most populous area. Major outdoors area. I hunt in this county just east of Waters. A lot of NIMBYS here though(not necessarily a bad thing), and sprawl is an issue.

Crawford County – Bush by 555 – 53% Bush Best – Grayling Township by 331
Gore Best – South Branch Township by 21

GOP lean on I-75. Less money than some of the Lake Michigan counties. Major outdoors area, and anchored by a National Guard Base. Very socially conservative. I go up fly fishing here each year.

Kalkaska County – Bush by 1068 – 56%
Bush Best – Kalkaska Township by 362
Gore Best – Springfield Township by 1

Solid GOP, between Grayling and Traverse city where M72 and US 131 meet. Rapidly developing in the NW end.

Grand Traverse County – Bush by 7987 – 58% Bush Best – Garfield Township by 1358
Gore was swept.

Leelanau County – Bush by 2205 – 57%
Bush Best – Elmwood Township by 497
Gore was Swept

Michigan’s Wine County. Home of the Sleeping Bear dunes as well. Northwest of Traverse City.

Benzie County – Bush by 626 – 52%
Bush Best – Almira Township by 309
Gore Best – Frankfort by 97

Marginal GOP area on Lake Michigan. Frankfort leans dem, rest of county GOP. West of Traverse City.

Manistee County – Gore by 238 – 49%
Bush Best – Onekama Township by 120
Gore Best – City of Manistee by 361

Posthumus won here. Bush should have. Swing area on Lake Michigan north of Ludington.

Wexford County – Bush by 1889 – 56%
Bush Best – City of Cadillac by 332
Gore best – Slagle Township by 39

Missaukee County – Bush by 2212 – 66%
Bush Best – Richland Township by 469
Gore swept

This is the 2nd most GOP county in the state by percentage. It’s between Cadillac and Roscommon and is centered by Lake City. It has a large Dutch and German population, and Michigan’s Dutch are the most GOP ethnic group in the state. Between Roscommon and Cadillac.

Saginaw Valley
Bush 160994 41%
Gore 224126 57%
Nader 7151 2%
Other 1770 0%
Gore by 63132

This area is heavily union and Democrat, and Gore got 57%. Midland is heavily Republican, but the rest of the areas is not. Gladwin is a swing area and winnable. Arenac is slightly democrat(union commuters from Bay), but winnable.

Arenac County - Gore by 264 – 51%
Bush Best – Whitney Township by 52
Gore Best – Standish Township by 153

Socially conservative, heavily union. Dingell type Democrat area on Saginaw Bay, north of Bay City.

Gladwin County - Bush by 170 – 49%
Bush Best – Grout Township by 172
Gore Best – Billings Township by 164

Many union members here. Prison in the county. A lot of corrections officers. Dem locally, although Republicans can win. Northwest of Bay City.

Midland County – Bush by 5928 – 56%
Bush Best – Midland City by 3655
Gore Best – Coleman City by 4

Dow Chemical dominates this area. The main GOP area in an otherwise Dem area. Between Mt Pleasant and Bay City.

Bay County - Gore by 6101 – 55%
Bush Best – Frakenlust Township by 452
Gore best – Bay City by 4547

The main city on Saginaw Bay. Bay County is GM and union land. A lot of social conservatives here, but they carry their union cards and vote accordingly. Posthumus held Granholm to 53% here. Gore was 55%. A republican did represent Bay County before. This it not an impossible area to win. Guns are huge here, and the dems are usually pro-gun here as well. I believe it is also a pro-life area(heavily Catholic, I know that). If Bush doesn’t blunder the AW ban and the economy does well, he could give some fits to the dems in Bay County.

Saginaw County – Gore by 9673 – 54%
Bush best – Saginaw Township by 1376
Gore Best – City of Saginaw by 11323

Saginaw County is a regional county. Three regions. The Western part of the county is rural and is usually Republican. The Western suburbs of the are also more Republican. Then there is Frankenmuth. Heavily Bavarian, conservative, and Republican. Then there’s the city of Saginaw, and it’s eastern suburbs, and GM plants. Saginaw is a dem stronghold and about 50% black. Buena Vista is 55% black. Bridgeport borders SE Saginaw. Carrolton borders NE Saginaw. This area is like Bay county and not impossible to win. Saginaw city is, but the rest of the county is winnable. Republicans are winning some of the local seats now. 20 years ago, it would never happen.

Genesee County – Gore by 52192 – 63%
Bush best – Fenton Township by 731
Gore Best – City of Flint by 32229

Genesee County is the birthplace of the UAW and GM’s main town. It is the 2nd most democrat county in the state behind only Wayne County. Granholm took 60% here. Gore 63%. The Southern Genessee border(Fenton, Linden, Grand Blanc) is the only area which leans GOP. Bush has to do well there. Maybe he can reduce his losses in Swartz Creek, Clio and Davison, but I doubt he’ll win any of those. Hopefully, he can stop the dem from getting 60% in Burton (borders Flint), 64% in Genesee Township, 73% in Mt Morris (Borders Flint’s roughest area), and 80% in Flint. To put things in perspective, I think only one democrat in recent memory lost Genesee County. That would be Geoff Fieger. Engler got 64% statewide that year. Pray for snow and a low turnout here, since Massachusetts is easier to win than here.

Central Michigan:
Bush 50750 - 53%
Gore 42986 – 45%
Nader 2187 – 2%
Other 521 – 1%
Bush by 7764

Osceola County – Bush by 1674 – 57%
Bush Best – Highland Township by 218
Gore was Swept

Clare County – Gore by 350 – 50%
Bush Best – Grand Township by 175
Gore Best – Hayes Township by 175

Mecosta County – Bush by 1772 – 55%
Bush Best – Morton Township by 415
Gore Best – City of Big Rapids by 90

Isabella County – Gore by 175 – 49%
Bush Best – Deerfield Township by 154
Gore Best – City of Mt Pleasant by 872

Gratiot County – Bush by 1774 – 55%
Bush Best – Wheeler Township by 246
Gore Best – City of Alma by 4

Montcalm County – Bush by 3069 – 55%
Bush Best – Pierson Township by 379
Gore swept

The Western Counties here are heavily Republican. Mecosta, Montcalm, and Osceola. Gratiot is also very Republican. Clare(where Jay’s Sporting Goods is) SHOULD be republican, but Gore won it. Isabella (Engler’s home county) went to Gore as well. Mt Pleasant is liberal with CMU, and the Chippewa reservation is a Democrat lean, but the rest of the county is more GOP. All of these should be ours.

West MI:
Bush 463646 – 57%
Gore 326226 – 40%
Nader 16695 – 2%
Other 3958 – 0%
Bush by 137420

Lake County – Gore by 623 – 55%
Bush Best – Chase Township by 89
Gore Best – Yates Township by 199

Lake County is the poorest county in the state, which is why it is dem. Only 4700 voters in the county as well. Between Ludington and Reed City.

Mason County – Bush by 1487 – 54%
Bush Best – Hamlin Township by 278
Gore Best – Free Soil Township by 76

This is the Ludington area. Bush nearly swept the county. He lost Grant Township by 3 and was creamed in Free Soil, which has most of the county’s blacks.

Oceana County – Bush by 1316 – 55%
Bush Best – Shelby Township by 236
Gore Best – Newfield Township by 94

Newaygo County – Bush by 3722
Bush Best – City of Fremont by 602
Gore Best – Merril Township by 92

Muskegon County – Gore by 7837 – 55%
Bush Best – City of Norton Shores by 759
Gore Best – City of Muskegon by 4678

This is the Dem stronghold in the West. Heavily union. Muskegon and Muskegon Heights (93% Gore, and like Detroit from what I’ve heard) are a 1-2 punch for this county. The Best Bush can do here is to go after the vote in the suburbs and try and reduce his losses in the county. It is winnable, but not likely. Making it a 7 pt game instead of a 12 pt loss though helps just as much.

Kent County: - Bush by 53190 – 59%
Bush Best – City of Wyoming by 5553
Gore Best – City of Grand Rapids by 2859

The anchor of the GOP in Michigan. Outside of the city of GR, Bush did not get under 56% anywhere. The only bad part is losing Grand Rapids. What will be interesting is what happens there with the Hispanic population, which is about 20% there if I remember right. Grand Rapids is winnable, and is also the 2nd largest city in the state with 200,000 people.

Ionia County – Bush by 4434 – 58%
Bush best – Boston Township by 660
Gore best – City of Ionia by 10

Ottawa County – Bush by 49103 – 71%
Bush Best – Georgetown Township by 12959
Gore was swept.

The center of Michigan’s Dutch settlements. Holland anchors in the Southwest, Grand Haven in the Northwest, and Georgetown in the Northeast GR suburbs. This is top GOP county in the state by percentage. It’s numbers like this that get the Detroit dems crying in their beer about West Michigan dominating the state. Boohoohoo and BS. There are over 4 million people in the Detroit Area. There are 1 million in the Grand Rapids area if you include dem Muskegon and Holland. I fail to see how West MI dominates. Engler did very well in SE MI.

Barry County – Bush by 5947 – 60%
Bush Best – Woodland Township by 1301
Gore was Swept

Barry is relatively small in numbers, but big percentage wise. Anchored by Hastings. It’s between Kalamazoo and Lansing, and between Jackson and Grand Rapids.

Allegan County – Bush by 12702 – 63%
Bush Best – Laketown Township by 1622
Gore Best – Plainwell by 81

Just south of Ottawa and Kent. One of the 5 best GOP counties in the state. Bush swept all except Lee Township, Sawgatuk (more liberal) and Plainwell. Part of Holland is in Allegan, and much of the base here is from that area.

Kalamazoo County – Gore by 553 – 48%
Bush Best – Texas Township by 1458
Gore best – City of Kalamazoo by 6262

Kalamazoo is becoming more and more of a dem county. Posthumus was trounced there. Bush will have his work cut out for him here. It’s winnable though. The city is very dem with a strong minority population in the north end, and Western Michigan University on the West end. The suburbs are more GOP, but Comstock and the township were Gored as well. Portage was too close as well. You know that Bush has to win a place called Texas township.

Van Buren County – Bush by 996 – 50%
Bush Best – Antwerp Township by 313
Gore Best – Covert Township by 423

This is a more marginal county between Kalamazoo and Berrien. Covert has a large black population, and that’s why it went for Gore. The rest are mostly marginally GOP, outside of Hartford which is more solid GOP.

Berrien County – Bush by 7537 – 55%
Bush Best – Lincoln Township by 2581
Gore Best – Benton Harbor by 2380

Southwestern most Michigan. Lincoln Township, Coloma, and St Joseph anchor the GOP here. Benton Harbor is a dem stronghold here, but they don’t have enough votes to really affect even a state rep spot here. The cities of Niles and Buchanan (both near South Bend, IN) went dem as well, although their townships went GOP.

Cass County – Bush by 1697 – 53%
Bush Best – Porter Township by 460
Gore Best – Dowagiac by 265

Dowagiac and LaGrange are dem. The rest is GOP. Between Niles and Sturgis on the Indiana border.

St Joseph County – Bush by 4332 – 59%
Bush Best – Sturgis by 745.
Gore Best – Three Rivers by 148

Bush swept everything here outside of Three Rivers. Solid GOP. Between Coldwater and Niles on the Indiana Border.

South Central and Capital City Area:
Bush 204251 48%
Gore 208379 49%
Nader 9427 2%
Other 2562 1%
Gore by 4128

Shiawassee County – Bush by 296 – 49%
Bush Best – Bennington Township by 231
Gore Best – City of Owosso by 337

This is a key swing area along I-69 between Flint and Lansing. I believe it used to be much more democrat than it is now. I know a pro-gun, pro-life democrat held the state rep seat here for 20 years. Durand is a small Flint Suburb(therfore Dem), but no one really dominated any of the areas here. Only 3 areas went over 55% either way. Mostly working class, semi-rural, and socially conservative. A lot of Reagan Democrats, and guns are a big issue here. Bush and Posthumus both barely won here. Republicans have been winning here on state rep and state senate lately too. Bush needs to aim for 53 or 54% here.

Clinton County – Bush by 4660 – 56%
Bush Best – Dallas Township by 708
Gore Best – City of East Lansing by 1

This is just North of Lansing on US 27. Bush won with 56%, Posthumus with 53%(although state workers hated Engler in his 3rd term). DeWitt is growing rapidly, and this is not as GOP as it once was. Other parts of the area are very strongly conservative, and guns and the life issue are huge here. Clinton County was one of the first counties to be shall issue on CCW. Bush needs to do well here. The good news is that state workers don’t work for him, so that helps, and with Granholm making some cuts, the dems might not be too popular either. Bush needs to equal or exceed 56% here again in 04. I am shocked that there was only one vote from the part of EL in the county though. Fine by me though.

Eaton County – Bush by 1592 – 50%
Bush Best – Eaton Township by 323
Gore Best – City of Lansing by 1004

Fast growing county to the west of Lansing along I-69. Bush won it barely in 00. Granholm won big here(State workers again). Delta Township is more liberal than the rest of the county, but Bush surprisingly won it. Eaton Rapids is always a tough fight with many commuters to Lansing that live there. Part of the city of Lansing is here, and it’s not exactly the best part of it. Mostly apartments, including the infamous Arbor Pointe complex. (70 out of 350 units had to be boarded up). I’ll just say I wouldn’t want to live there after that front page Lansing State Journal story on it. The rest of the area is mostly GOP. Charlotte and Grand Ledge are the only other cities in the area and are marginal. The rest of the area is rural. It’s mostly social conservative. Bush needs this county again to win in 04.

Ingham County – Gore by 21917 – 57%
Bush Best – Williamstown Township by 278
Gore Best – City of Lansing by 15265

The GOP has taken a beating here in recent years. No GOP reps in the state house or state senate are from Ingham County anymore. It can be separated into four areas.

Vevay/Delhi/Mason/Alaiedon – This is the Holt/Mason area to the South of Lansing/East Lansing. Mostly Lansing or East Lansing commuters. Delhi went Gore, as did Mason. Vevay and Alaiedon were bright spots for Bush. I believe Holt(more blue collar) is more socially conservative, Mason more economically conservative and socially liberal, although the active building in that area maybe changing it.

City of Lansing/East Lansing – This is the dems main 1-2 punch. Bush got 31% in Lansing and 29% in East Lansing. I don’t expect him to win Lansing or East Lansing, but he could cut into the dems’ winnings here. Mike Rogers did well in East Lansing, and he actually won Lansing. I think 40% is quite possible in Lansing. East Lansing maybe 35% if the students are energized (overall, they are to the right of most of the faculty). Those would be moral victories. They are bad, but they are not Flint.

Meridian Township/Williamston/Williamstown Township – These are soccer mom areas (Meridian especially) down Grand River. I would probably be unable to win Meridian Township. They do not like guns here. They are pro-choice mostly as well. These are the ‘moderates’ that the media loves. (as opposed to the Reagan Democrat centrists). Williamston is not as liberal as Meridian, but Granholm won it. Many of those moving out there are dems from the Lansing area. It’s not 60% GOP like it used to be, and it’s harder to draw the line between Williamston and Okemos. They are ticket splitters. Chris Shays could win here. Paul DeWeese won here. He is more socially conservative, but he fought hard for the state workers.

Jackson County – Bush by 3906 – 52%
Bush best – Summit Township by 1620
Gore Best – City of Jackson by 2172

In Jackson County, the city is fairly Democrat, rest of the county Republican. Spring Arbor and Summit are the best GOP areas. South of Lansing, Between Ann Arbor and Albion.

Calhoun County – Gore by 1021 – 50%
Bush Best – Pennfield Township by 328
Gore Best – City of Battle Creek by 1718

Calhoun swings. Bush has to do better than 44% in Battle Creek (sometimes votes for GOP candidates). Bush did very well in the rural areas. Albion is solid democrat and has a large minority population. Marshall is marginal GOP. Between Jackson and Kalamazoo, and SW of Lansing.

Branch County – Bush by 2052 – 55% Bush Best – Quincy Township by 272
Gore was swept

Hillsdale County – Bush by 3988 – 60%
Bush Best – Adams Township by 403
Gore was swept

Branch and Hillsdale are heavily GOP. Hillsdale College is one of the most famous conservative schools in the county. Branch County is along the Indiana Border on I-69 between Fort Wayne and Marshall/Battle Creek and heavily rural outside of Coldwater. Hillsdale is on the Ohio border and between Adrian and Coldwater.

Lenawaee County – Bush by 2316 – 52%
Bush best – Adrian Township by 409
Gore Best – City of Adrian by 821

Lenwaee is a swing county. It went dem for state rep, but went for Bush. Adrian is dem in the city, GOP in the township. Clinton, Tecumseh, Madison, and Raisin(Brooklyn?) all swing. The rest is mostly GOP. A must win. Between Monroe and Hillsdale, SE of Jackson, SW of Ann Arbor.

Thumb
Bush 87012 – 53%
Gore 73648 – 45%
Nader 3139 – 2%
Other 1274 – 1%
Bush by 13364

Huron County – Bush by 2012 – 55%
Bush Best – Sebewaing Township by 412
Gore Best – Port Austin Township by 113

Sanilac County – Bush by 3813 – 59%
Bush Best – Marlette Township by 358
Gore Best – Austin Township by 7

Tuscola County – Bush by 2368 – 54%
Bush Best – Denmark Township by 630
Gore Best – Arbela Township by 91

Lapeer County – Bush by 4602 – 55%
Bush Best – Dryden Township by 634
Gore Best – Marathon Township by 266

Southernmost Thumb County. East of Flint on I-69, North of Oakland County, west of Port Huron.

St Clair County – Bush by 569 – 49%
Bush Best – Clay Township by 550
Gore Best – City of Port Huron by 1956

The thumb is heavily GOP outside of St Clair which swings. St Clair is a must win. Bush barely won it. Posthumus won it by 8%. It is one of the most pro-gun areas in the state, and he’ll be hurt here more than most places if he blunders the AW ban(signing it). Socially conservative and heavily blue collar. Port Huron is a dem area, although he can make it close. Bush needs to do well here to win the state. One the Candadian Border crossings on the St Clair river.

SE MICHIGAN (outside Detroit Area)
Bush 126066 - 45%
Gore 146692 – 52%
Nader 7336 – 3%
Other 1885 – 1%
Gore by 20916

Livingston County – Bush by 15857 – 59%
Bush Best – Brighton Township by 2839
Gore was swept

One of the 5 best counties for Bush and a GOP area surrounded by dems on 4 sides. Howell and Brighton anchor the county, with Fowlerville, Hamburg, Pinckney, and Hartland also growing rapidly. One of the 3 best for Posthumus (62%). Even Carl Levin lost here. The libs here have a website saying how bad the county sucks (Then leave). The only two townships that sometimes go dem locally are Putnam Township and Unadilla Township (Where Bush got 52 and 51%). The gun issue is big down there (and in most of the county) and will help Bush if the AW ban is not renewed. Mike Rogers got 63-64% in his first congress run and 77% in his last run. Mike Cox got 65% for AG (he won statewide as well). Bush needs to shoot for 65%+ here to help offset the next county on the list. Between Lansing and Oakland County along 1-96, Between Flint and Ann Arbor on US-23. Exurbs in the east, farms in the West.

Washtenaw County – Gore by 34188
Bush Best – Lodi Township by 671
Gore Best –City of Ann Arbor by 23124

The third most dem county in the state. Two major Universities and a union town anchor it. The only GOP candidate in recent memory to win here is Engler, and that was over Geoff Fieger. Ann Arbor is, well Ann Arbor. Ypsi is part college town(EMU), part union town(GM) and is just as democrat. The Willow Run area has seen better days. Bush needs to fight for what he can get, and take the marginal rural areas like Manchester, Chelsea, Dexter, and Saline. If he can avoid a 20pt loss here, he’ll be doing great. The best thing possible is a snowstorm over A2 and Ypsi. Tom Monaghan has sure earned my respect with what he’s done there.

Monroe County – Gore by 2585 – 51%
Bush Best – Bedford Township by 658
Gore Best – City of Monroe by 1467

Posthumus won it with 51% and a GOP won an open seat for state rep here. Gore had 51% here. There is NO REASON why this should not go GOP every times. For Pete’s sake, it is the home of Cabela’s. This is a very pro-2a county, and anti property tax county between Ann Arbor and Toledo on US-23, and Detroit and Toledo along I-75.

DETROIT AREA Bush – 661605 – 39%
Gore 984240 – 58%
Nader 27914 – 3%
Other 10792 – 1%
Gore by 322635

Macomb County – Gore by 8360 – 50%
Bush Best – Shelby Township by 5094
Gore Best – City of Warren by 8919

Home of the Reagan Democrats. Borders Detroit on 8-mile, Oakland county on Dequinder. I’ve mentioned a few must wins, but this is the must win of must wins. Posthumus won it by 5%. Gore won by 3%. In general, North Macomb is GOP, and South Macomb is democrat. Bush needs to reduce his losses in Warren (he can make Warren a 5 pt race instead of 15, I think Posthumus made it 7), Centerline, and Eastpointe. Mt Clemens is the most dem area there and unwinnable. Roseville as well is very dem. St Clair Shores just elected a GOP state rep. He needs to win there and should. Chesterfield, Sterling Heights, Utica, and Harrison need to be bigger wins and were too close. St Clair Shores is the big key here, and the bellwether for the county. Sterling Heights is the 2nd largest city, and also as key.

Oakland County – Gore by 6882 – 49%
Bush Best – Rochester Hills by 7537
Gore Best – City of Southfield by 24960

Oakland will be tougher and tougher each election, simply by numbers. It’s not the Oakland County of 1984. The main difference is the number of Detroiters moving to Southfield. It tilted the county to Granholm, Gore, and Klinton in 96. Bush will start with almost 25,000 votes to make up with Southfield alone.

The North and West ends of the county are the most GOP. Novi, Milford, Orion, Independence(Clarkston), Oakland, etc. These are the exhurbs and fastest growing areas of the county. The Livingston County and Lapeer County Borders are the best areas.

SE end – Oakland’s Democrat Base. Below 13 or 14 mile and east of Telegraph, there are few republicans. Ferndale is known as the gay friendly area of Michigan. Royal Oak is liberal, although some republicans do win there. Southfield has a black majority, as does Oak Park and Royal Oak Township, all of which border Detroit to the south. Pleasant Ridge is Jim Blanchard’s home, and Huntington Woods is Gilda Jacobs country. Blanchard is the taxman, and Gilda is our state’s Dianne Feinstein. An election day snowstorm here would be nice.

Central to Central East – Rochester and Troy are solid GOP areas. Pontiac is a dem stronghold and a GM town. Auburn Hills(Home of the Pistons) leans dem with Diamler-Chrysler, but isn’t solid dem.Tom McMillan won there several times, and just won a county commish seat from there. He’s ultra conservative and fights the RINOS as much as the dems. Waterford is a blue-collar marginal GOP area that the dems have been trying and failing to win for years. Birmingham is more liberal, but republican. West Bloomfield (heavily Jewish) will be interesting. It went GOP for congress (Knollenberg) several times, but Gore won by 14% there. How will the Middle East affect the vote there. The other Bloomfields are more GOP. Farmington Hills is the Meridian Township of Oakland County and currently leans slightly dem. If Bush can carry all these areas, he should take it. Mike Cox was able to do it without running to the left, despite his opponent being from one of the Bloomfields. It’s not impossible.

WAYNE COUNTY – Gore by 307393 – 69%
Bush Best – City of Livonia by 4563
Gore Best – City of Detroit by 266423

This is our Cook County. This is one of the most Dem counties in the country, and the 800lb gorilla the rest of us have to deal with. Even Geoff Fieger won here. Bush got 29%. Posthumus 31%. It is however very regional.

Detroit – If Detroit GOTV, it makes it very tough to win. If they don’t vote, we usually win. It’s that simple. If we somehow get 15% of the vote there(instead of 5%), I will dance a jig. The dems can’t win without Detroit. Highland Park(Bush got 3%) and Hamtramck (although we got 26% there) might as well be Detroit for electoral purposes, my apologies to anyone that lives there.

South Wayne and Downriver (1-75/US-24) – A case of “My dad was a democrat. My grandfather was a democrat. My great-grandfather was a democrat. His dad was a democrat”…Largely Catholic, dem, union, gunowner, and Dingell fan. Bush won two Downriver areas. Dearborn (52%) and Grosse Ile. Dearborn is very unpredictable in the next election with the Mideast situation and the Arabs there. Grosse Ile is very Republican. The dems took all the rest. Inkster, Ecorse and River Rouge are largely black which is why they are 80% dem. Bush needs to reduce his losses here, particular in Trenton, Taylor, Allen Park, Brownstown, and Rockwood. I think he can make some inroads here, and possibly steal Allen Park, Gilbrater, and Trenton.

West Wayne (I-275 to US-24, M-14)– Livonia sometimes votes dem locally, but the GOP has done very well there in the last several races. Plymouth(split between conservatives and soccer moms) and Canton (conservative) are solid GOP, but Bush needs to improve on his numbers there. Northville is also solid GOP. Westland is treading more and more dem. Belleville and Van Buren are dem. Romulus is extremely dem, and I suspect much of that has to do with the metro airport workers. Redford and Dearborn Heights have a lot of conservative democrats, and those need to be battlegrounds.

Looking at 2004, I see some advantages and disadvantages for Bush. Anyone who thinks that there will be a 49 state landslide is smoking crack. This will be a fight to the finish, and I can see another 2000 here.

Disadvantage – Economy, economy, economy. If anything causes the dem to lose, this will be it. Especially out in the hinderlands where tourism is the number one industry. No money means no vacation, means up north is hurting bad, which means no votes. The other one – REVENGE. Bush “stole” the election. The dems hate Bush like we all hated Klinton. They will be out voting. Count on it.

Advantage – Foreign policy. The papers hate it, but Americans love winners and hate wimps. Simplistic, but accurate. The dems crybaby fest helps us. Several swing voters I know want then to shut the hell up. Another advantage is the primary. The dems will be beating the crap out of each other, and we have an early primary in this state. That helps us, since we see the heat flying and whoever wins will be hurting. Dem arrogance is another advantage. Most of the dems Bush-bashing isn’t specific policy critique. They turn the nose up and call Bush, moron, top gun, etc. The advantage to that is that it causes conservatives to go f-you to them. Much like 98 was a good year for the dems(outside Michigan thanks to our friend Fieger). Conservatives went off on Klinton’s affairs and stuff,(They should have gone after him for China) which was viewed as minor stuff. Compared to China, FBI files and the Travel Office, it’s real minor. This time, it goes to our advantage. The dems can beat themselves here.

Wildcards – Judges, ballot initiatives, Guns. – What will SCOTUS hear near that time. That may influence decisions. I was not a republican in 2000. I was indy. I finally switched from Harry Brown to Bush based on SCOTUS and Janet Reno. Ballot initiatives are the most unpredictable. With Granholm as govenor, something can be expected there. School Vouchers brought a lot of teachers and their friends to the polls. Lastly, guns. If Bush signs the AW ban, I really think Michigan will go dem again, because of the Northlands and Macomb. If the AW ban doesn’t pass, gunowners will forgive him for the talk. If Bush signs the gun lawsuit ban, gunowners will walk precincts for him. We’ll see what happens there.

Overall - John Kerry’s elitism won’t play well here. Gephart’s populism though on the otherhand may win him this state. Gore went populist at the end here last time and won. Graham scares me as well, and Dean’s gun stance (same as W’s) may make things interesting. He;s a former governor too, and they are the presidents, not senators. I think the biggest key swing areas are the Northlands, Macomb, St Clair, Monroe, Lenawaee, Shiawassee and Eaton. Will those conservative dems and independents go for Bush in 04? Oakland is also important. If Bush can walk a tightrope and get those Oakland moderates (and Meridian) to back him WITHOUT alienating the other swing areas, he has a good shot unless Detroit pulls more tricks than usual. It’s real early though. Mike Cox did it. Can Bush repeat it?

Bush vs Kerry – 55% chance to win Michigan (55% chance to win, not 55% of the vote) – Kerry is too elitist for this state and his wife’s a loose cannon. We’re a blue collar state and wear that on our sleeve. Two words. Dukakis and Tank. One more word. WEAK.

Bush vs Edwards – 57% win - Trial Lawyers aren’t liked here. John, meet Geoff Fieger, 1998 disaster.

Bush vs Graham – 48% - Graham still scares me, and his hawk reputation will play well here. Southern accents work well here too.

Bush vs Dean – 50% - I have to see him in action more, but his stances could give a few surprises. The dem base seems to really like him though.

Bush vs Lieberman – 51% - If Joe had any sort of personality, I’d consider him a major threat. Doesn’t come off as elitist as Kerry does to me. The good thing about him is that the Ann Arborites absolutely despise him. He’ll get primaried out. He’s real tough to pin down though. (I know he’s liberal, but he has a moderate or even conservative reputation.)

Bush vs Gephardt – 50% - I don’t think Gephardt will win nationwide, but he is a midwesterner and can possibly win Michigan with his lifelong union stances. His mouth may be his undoing though. He not Fieger level abrasive, but close.

Bush vs Hillary – 55% - She won’t play well in the hinderlands or Macomb. Abrasive, elitist, and uberliberal. She’s not Bill.

Lastly, I think it will be within 5% either way who wins here. We’re gonna have a fight, and need to be prepared for one.

Thanks for the informative post. Unless the economy completely implodes(I think the economy is in trouble but I also think they can keep things at bay for the next 18 months as well), the Dems will have a more difficult time winning states like MI. In the 2000 election, one thing that hurt Bush was the stigma among suburban "moderates" that the GOP gained because of the Gov shutdown and impeachment. These PR mis steps(I think the GOP was right in both cases but Ginrich and Armey were horrid PR wise) cost the GOP at least 5-10% of the suburban vote.

Good breakdown. I wish I could do the same for TN, but we aren't in any danger of not delivering this state to Dubya. You gotta stop being scared of Graham, he's yesterday's news and if he chooses to run for reelection, might not win again. Let's pray for a Sharpton win. He'll do boffo in Detroit and scare the $hit out of the straights in the sticks.

3 posted on 05/23/2003 8:04:11 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (~Remember, it's not sporting to fire at RINO until charging~)

Bump

thanks Dan, good job

Also helpful, as I am looking into up north property to buy for retirement

Defintely don't want to live in a "blue zone" county!

I'm partial to the Grayling area myself. My grandmother had a cottage on the Au Sable(which my parents now own). I grew up on that river during the summer.

The Waters area is also nice, but that's my hunting area(Build west of I-75 :))..less development..better.

It all depends what you are looking for.

5 posted on 05/24/2003 10:35:56 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan ("It's the same ole story, same ole song and dance, my friend")

6 posted on 05/25/2003 9:18:59 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan ("It's the same ole story, same ole song and dance, my friend")

Good assessment. As a Calhoun resident with family in Allegan, I would be surprised not to see Bush totals increasing in each.

Of course hard to foretell what the situations/issues will be almost a year and a half out, but would expect 2004 to be more like 1972 than like 1992. Demo. core will pull left, alienate more than they will attract. Bush will hang in there and perhaps even pull along some surprises like the Illinois senate race (Jack Ryan? perhaps), as well as others which are now seen as more likely (Ga. Senate- Collins, or even Cain--in a three way race, I'd currently put Collins as favorite).

Man that was a lot of work Dan. I enjoyed reading it. I love this kind of trivia. Dean has this know it all quality, and tends to sound condescending at times, and of course, is fairly hard left. I don't think he would sell well in Michigan. You are aware that Graham is hopelessly boring and inarticulate aren't you?

"Dearborn is very unpredictable in the next election with the Mideast situation and the Arabs there."

The Arabs were celebrating the fall of SH in the streets. If that is any indication, I would say that Bush has strong Arab support.

11 posted on 02/16/2004 10:24:39 AM PST by CSM (My Senator is so stupid he'd have to get naked to count to 21 and my Governor wouldn't be able to!)

"My grandmother had a cottage on the Au Sable(which my parents now own)."

Wow, your parents own the Au Sable river! I guess I owe you some cash for using your river on canoe trips.

12 posted on 02/16/2004 10:26:49 AM PST by CSM (My Senator is so stupid he'd have to get naked to count to 21 and my Governor wouldn't be able to!)

2002 updates

Granholm won Dearborn though so that scares me a little. I don't know if it was because of West Dearborn or East Dearborn. I expect East since Posthumus ran much better than Bush among union members.

From US election atlas - a great site.

BTW - A few of those almost all Blue counties actually went RAT.

15 posted on 02/19/2004 9:50:31 AM PST by Dan from Michigan ("You know it don't come easy, the road of the gypsy" - Iron Eagle)

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