Iranian Alert -- November 3, 2003 -- IRAN LIVE THREAD PING LIST

The US media almost entirely ignores news regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran. As Tony Snow of the Fox News Network has put it, “this is probably the most under-reported news story of the year.” But most American’s are unaware that the Islamic Republic of Iran is NOT supported by the masses of Iranians today. Modern Iranians are among the most pro-American in the Middle East.

There is a popular revolt against the Iranian regime brewing in Iran today. Starting June 10th of this year, Iranians have begun taking to the streets to express their desire for a regime change. Most want to replace the regime with a secular democracy. Many even want the US to over throw their government.

The regime is working hard to keep the news about the protest movement in Iran from being reported. Unfortunately, the regime has successfully prohibited western news reporters from covering the demonstrations. The voices of discontent within Iran are sometime murdered, more often imprisoned. Still the people continue to take to the streets to demonstrate against the regime.

In support of this revolt, Iranians in America have been broadcasting news stories by satellite into Iran. This 21st century news link has greatly encouraged these protests. The regime has been attempting to jam the signals, and locate the satellite dishes. Still the people violate the law and listen to these broadcasts. Iranians also use the Internet and the regime attempts to block their access to news against the regime. In spite of this, many Iranians inside of Iran read these posts daily to keep informed of the events in their own country.

This daily thread contains nearly all of the English news reports on Iran. It is thorough. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a nation. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary. The news stories and commentary will from time to time include material from the regime itself. But if you read the post you will discover for yourself, the real story of what is occurring in Iran and its effects on the war on terror.

I am not of Iranian heritage. I am an American committed to supporting the efforts of those in Iran seeking to replace their government with a secular democracy. I am in contact with leaders of the Iranian community here in the United States and in Iran itself.

If you read the daily posts you will gain a better understanding of the US war on terrorism, the Middle East and why we need to support a change of regime in Iran. Feel free to ask your questions and post news stories you discover in the weeks to come.

If all goes well Iran will be free soon and I am convinced become a major ally in the war on terrorism. The regime will fall. Iran will be free. It is just a matter of time.

PS I have a daily ping list and a breaking news ping list. If you would like to receive alerts to these stories please let me know which list you would like to join.

"Is Iran Rethinking Its Position on Israel?"

Posted by Jean Shaw
Monday, November 03, 2003

Afshin Molavi and Karim Sadjadpour, writing for The New Republic, discuss the possibility that Iran--led in part by the growing youth movement--may be rethinking its position on Israel.

Shortly after Iran's 1979 revolution toppled the Shah, Yasir Arafat turned up in Tehran to celebrate. With Arafat in town, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini announced the Islamic Revolution would march until ''the liberation of Jerusalem.'' Crowds responded with waves of applause. After all, in 1970s Iran, support for the Palestinians had emerged as a litmus test of commitment to the revolutionary ethos. Unsurprisingly, an anti-Israel, pro-Palestinian stance quickly became a central tenet of the Islamic Republic. The government lavished financial support on groups opposing Israel, and the keys to the de facto Israeli embassy in Tehran were turned over to Arafat's Palestine Liberation Organization. Across Iran, billboards urging justice for palestine dotted the country, and every major city soon had a ''Palestine Square'' and a ''Palestine Street.'' State television described suicide bombings as ''martyrdom operations.'' The Iranian government even proclaimed a ''Jerusalem day,'' on which government workers were ''encouraged'' to take part in protests against the ''bloodthirsty Zionist state.''

Twenty-four years later, however, Iranian demonstrators are in a vastly different mood. In mid-June, Iranian youths staged a series of large rallies at Tehran University. Amid calls for greater democracy and freedom, one of the more popular slogans was: ''Forget about Palestine! Think of us!'' These two lines, delivered in rhyming, lilting Persian, encapsulate the sentiments of many young Iranians. In fact, though the West still thinks of Iran as a cauldron of anti-Israel passion, a new generation of pro-democracy Iranians increasingly speaks out against the government's seeming obsession with the Palestinians. And these youths are finding cohorts in an unlikely quarter: a group of senior conservative officials who are beginning to question the utility of Iran's close ties to anti-Israel groups.

Iranians under the age of 30--who comprise more than two-thirds of the population today--express little interest in terrorist groups, anti-Zionism, and radical politics in general. In places where young people congregate, Iranians constantly question their government's support for terrorist groups. ''I see the way people look at me when I travel,'' complained one young Iranian. ''Immediately, they think, 'Watch out for the Iranian, he might be a terrorist.' I blame our government for cultivating this image by supporting radical groups.'' Meanwhile, on campuses, rumors abound that Palestinian militants and Hezbollah fighters are imported from Gaza and southern Lebanon to help quell recent student unrest--tales that make the groups even more unpopular. Reformist newspapers and reformist clerics have begun questioning Iran's hard-line stance on Israel. Abdollah Nouri, a former Interior minister and close confidant of Khomeini, has bluntly criticized the Islamic Republic's desire to act ''more Palestinian than the Palestinians.''

This disaffection with the Palestinian cause stems in part from many Iranians' frustration with Iran's economic and political problems. They see Iran's moribund economy partly as a result of the country's embrace of international radicalism, which has damaged foreign business ties. Many students have traded in Che Guevara posters, which used to hang in many dormitories as a sign of commitment to radicalism, for Microsoft ads. At cafés, conversations increasingly revolve around the need to find jobs and the push for more social freedoms, and some even use the disparaging term ''Hezbollahi'' (a Hezbollah type) to refer to anyone who is radical and violent. Even some older Iranians have grown weary of the Palestinization of foreign policy. At an earthquake site in northern Iran last year, a group of elderly victims complained bitterly about the government's slow response. ''If the earthquake occurred in Palestine, they would have sent money and supplies. To us, they only give empty slogans,'' one said.

Still, reformers and the frustrated populace are too weak to influence official policy, which continues to be dominated by conservatives. But, in the past few months, several senior conservatives have quietly joined the chorus, hinting that Iran's support for terrorist groups opposed to Israel is negotiable. According to one senior conservative official, ''Iran's policy in the Middle East and the peace process is not beyond the realm of possibilities that can be discussed, given a dialogue with the United States.'' Translation from Islamic Republic-speak: We can talk turkey on Israel/Palestine. Sadeq Zibakalam, a Tehran University professor with close ties to conservative officials, underscored this view earlier this year, when he told the U.S.-funded Radio Farda Persian service that Iran understands Washington's concerns about Tehran's support for Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad. President Mohammed Khatami, a reformer who has long argued that Iran should not interfere in any agreements made between Israel and the Palestinians, is unlikely to quibble with the conservatives.

Why have some conservatives begun to shift? Pragmatism plays a role. Conservatives are realizing that Iran's sinking economy, which will need to find hundreds of thousands of jobs for its young people, desperately needs foreign investment. As a result, despite claims of Islamic and revolutionary solidarity, Tehran quietly favors pragmatism above ideology in its foreign policies. Iran has ignored the plight of Kashmiri Muslims in favor of growing rapprochement with India and says nary a word about oppressed Muslims in Chechnya, so as not to offend its ally Russia. Meanwhile, Iranian opposition to Saudi Arabia's repression of its Shia Muslim minority has gone silent since the two countries have grown closer in the past few years.

In all these instances, revolutionary solidarity has been sacrificed for national interest. Now, Tehran might be considering essentially the same formula regarding the Palestinian case: abandoning the Palestinians to cut a deal with the United States. After all, U.S. economic sanctions are due in part to Iran's support for violent groups opposed to Middle East peace and have prevented billions of dollars in potential foreign capital from entering Iran. As Dr. Qassem Sa'adi, a prominent nationalist intellectual, wrote in an open letter in December 2002 to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini, ''The Palestinization of Iranian foreign policy has been disastrous to our national interests.''

Even former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of the harshest critics of Israel in the Islamic Republic, has signed on. Around him has coalesced a small but influential group willing to consider softening Iran's stance on Israel. These conservative pragmatists have been influential in the on-again, off-again back-channel talks between Iranian and American officials in the past year, which sources in both Tehran and Washington say are on again.

If Iran were to put its anti-Israel stance on the table, what would it expect in return? Most likely, a comprehensive package that would include a security agreement and assurances that Washington would move toward removing sanctions. Iran also wants something intangible: recognition as a regional power. Says Zibakalam: ''If the Americans officially recognized a powerful Iran ... the Iranians would see no reason for Iran-U.S. tensions.''

Tehran, however, faces a highly suspicious White House--angry about Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program and in little mood to cut an overt, comprehensive deal with the ruling mullahs. Nonetheless, Iran's recent announcement that it will accept a more vigorous nuclear inspections regime may allow back-channel talks between Tehran and Washington to continue.

Still, how Iran views Israel, and how much support it offers to Palestinian groups, will help determine the future of U.S.-Iran talks. What's important for American policymakers to realize is that Tehran has tentatively put its position on the table. ''Clearly, our stance on the peace process is of interest to the Americans, and we are prepared to talk about this as well as everything,'' says a senior Iranian official. And, unlike in the Arab world, where politicians must tread carefully before they make any concessions to Israel or the United States for fear of popular reaction, the youthful ''Iranian street'' would gladly welcome a less strident stance.

Afshin Molavi is the author of ''Persian Pilgrimages: Journeys Across Iran.'' Karim Sadjadpour is an analyst with the International Crisis Group.

http://www.chronwatch.com/content/contentDisplay.asp?aid=4911

This Deal Won't Put A Lid On Iran's Nukes

BusinessWeek - By Stan Crock in Washington, with Babak Pirouz in Tehran
Nov 10, 2003

Is the Iranian nuclear crisis over? The Oct. 21 agreement between Britain, France, and Germany and Iran makes it seem so. Iran agreed to provide complete information on its nuclear programs and sign a "protocol" that will open the country to intrusive inspections. In return, the Europeans promised easier access to technology, including possibly nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.

The timing was perfect: Iran faced an Oct. 31 deadline by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N. watchdog, to disclose the full details of its program, and failure to comply could have led to U.N. sanctions. The IAEA was already aware of secret nuclear sites and traces of enriched uranium in Iran, which can be used to make bombs. No wonder even U.S. President George W. Bush called the last-minute accord "a very positive development."

Many hurdles
But it's wishful thinking to conclude this crisis is over. True, the European deal keeps Iran in the international fold for now. Reformists in Tehran and global observers had feared the government might heed demands from ultrahard-line clerics to follow North Korea's example and quit the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. That could further destabilize the region. And it would destroy efforts to improve relations between Iran and Europe -- and eventually perhaps the U.S.

But Tehran has so many hurdles to overcome to meet IAEA demands that tensions are bound to rise again. And Iran, mindful of its national pride, has demands of its own, as well as cards to play. As a goodwill gesture, Tehran offered to suspend its uranium-enrichment operations -- a process used for weapons or energy. But, warns Amir Mohebian, political editor of the conservative Iranian daily Resalat: "If the Europeans do not carry out [their] commitments, it will elevate the wall of mistrust."

The next crunch time is Nov. 20. That's when IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei must inform his governing board whether Iran is fully cooperating. Early signs are not promising. Two days after signing the European deal, Iran submitted to the IAEA a report that acknowledged serious violations of IAEA rules, including clandestine imports of uranium from China. But Iran failed to explain the origin of tiny amounts of weapons-grade uranium that the IAEA had found.

Meanwhile, Washington conservatives are likely to push for a rollback of Iran's entire nuclear program. They even want to prevent the completion of Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, which Russia is building. If the nuclear-energy program isn't dismantled, "it's simply a prescription for mischief," warns Henry D. Sokolski, executive director of Washington's Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. With an election coming up, President Bush may want to avoid another Mideast confrontation. But whether he can ignore Iran may depend on how much it opens up to IAEA inspectors, who will have to verify that the regime isn't hiding secret programs. Tehran now bears the burden of proving its honest intent.

http://www.daneshjoo.org/generalnews/article/publish/article_3344.shtml

Sons, Aides of Top Iran Cleric Arrested

November 3, 2003
By ALI AKBAR DAREINI
Associated Press Writer

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - Iranian security agents on Monday arrested two sons and two close aides of Iran's leading dissident cleric, a wife of one of the detainees said.

Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri's sons, Ahmad and Saeed Montazeri, plus his aides, Reza Ziaei and Gholamreza Hojjati, were taken into custody by plainclothes security agents in Qom, a holy city 80 miles southwest of Tehran, Zahra Rabbani, Ahmad's wife, told The Associated Press.

Rabbani said Iranian authorities gave no reason for the arrests, but the move came after she had decided to turn a building next to her home into a seminary school for the elder Montazeri to teach in.

Security agents have closed the building, which is where Monday's arrests occurred.

Montazeri, 81, resumed teaching in September after spending five years under house arrest in Qom for telling students that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was incompetent to issue religious rulings.

Montazeri had also accused ruling hard-line clerics of monopolizing power and ignoring the democratic demands of ordinary Iranians. Khamenei denounced him as a traitor and the mosque where he made the speech was closed.

Following Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, Montazeri had been the designated successor of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. That was until he fell out with Khomeini shortly before his 1989 death after complaining about powers wielded by unelected clerics.

Criticizing Khamenei is considered taboo in Iran and critics are subject to punishment. But in recent months, reformers have become bolder and directly criticized Khamenei and the unelected bodies he controls.

On Monday, Mojtaba Lotfi, a close aide to the grand ayatollah, said the mosque Montazeri preached at in Qom has remained closed since he was first placed under house arrest.

``They (hard-liners) believe the mosque where Khamenei was criticized in should never open again,'' he said. ``It is apparently a symbolic decision to tell everyone that Khamenei should not be criticized.''

Lotfi said Montazeri condemned the arrest of his sons and aides. He did not elaborate.

In his first public speech in six years following the lifting of the house arrest order in September, Montazeri denounced Iran's theocratic establishment as undemocratic and urged it to allow the country's young people to choose their future.

Montazeri, who is in poor health, is one of a few grand ayatollahs, the most senior theologians of the Shiite Muslim faith. He enjoys huge followings in Qom and Isfahan, his birthplace.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-3342475,00.html

Iranian journalists freed from Iraq

3 November, 2003
By Jim Muir
BBC correspondent in Tehran

The two men, Saeed Abu Taleb and Soheil Karimi, were filming near an American checkpoint at the time of their arrest on 1 July .

Iran and the US do not have diplomatic relations, and Britain played a key role in mediating the release of the two journalists.

As the representative of the Americans' closest ally in the coalition occupying Iraq, the British embassy in Tehran came under strong pressure to do intervene in the issue.

'Security regime'

Behind the scenes, British diplomacy worked hard to resolve the case as quickly as possible - no easy task, with the American military under constant threat in Iraq, and with no love at all lost between Washington and Tehran.

Just over four months after their detainment, a statement from the British Embassy in Tehran and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in London, said the Coalition had ordered the release of the two men, after US forces had completed their investigation and decided not to press charges.

The statement said it was "unfortunate that the two journalists had been caught up in the stringent security regime currently in place in Iraq".

"The UK has been in contact with the US and Iranian governments throughout their detention, and has intervened at a senior level to press for the investigation to be brought to an early conclusion," the statement said.

"After several fatal attacks on Coalition forces at checkpoints, the Coalition authorities could not afford to take any chances. But we are pleased that the issue has now been resolved and the men are now on their way home," it added.

Iranians will remain convinced that the two were held because of their nationality. But there will be relief and joy among their families over their eventual release.

Sensitive relations

For most of the past four months, their families have received virtually no news of the two and why they were being held.

Saeed Abu Taleb is a well-known documentary-maker working for Iranian state television, and Soheil Karimi was his cameraman.

Britain's role in helping to bring about their release may earn it some credit from the Iranian authorities - but there are plenty of other complications in this constantly sensitive relationship.

Recent remarks by Prime Minister Tony Blair, to the effect that the war in Iraq helped bring Iranian compliance on the nuclear issue, have ruffled feathers in Iran.

The case against a former Iranian diplomat, Hadi Soleimanpour, currently on bail in the UK after an extradition request from Argentina, has added to difficulties. Argentine authorities want to try him in connection with the bombing of a Jewish centre in Buenos Aires nine years ago.

More than 50 other Iranians remain in US military custody in Iraq. Many of them are believed to be would-be pilgrims who crossed the border illegally to visit Shia Muslim holy places in southern Iraq.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3237105.stm

Posted: 03 November 2003 2016 hrs

Iran's supreme leader says nuclear deal no climbdown

TEHRAN : Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has insisted Iran's agreement to comply with demands for transparency over its nuclear programme was not a "surrender", and warned the country still reserved the right to pull out of the deal.

In his first public comments on a European-brokered agreement for Iran to boost cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the all-powerful leader stressed the country had scored a diplomatic victory against what he described as a "Zionist-US conspiracy".

"There was no surrender in it," Khamenei was quoted as telling a gathering of top officials in a report overnight Sunday by the official IRNA news agency.

"What happened was right and well managed in order to foil the US and Zionist conspiracy."

The IAEA had given Iran until the end of October to fully disclose details of its nuclear programme, and urged it to allow a tougher inspections regime by signing an additional protocol to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Iran was also called upon to suspend uranium enrichment.

After initially rejecting the deadline, Iran agreed to comply just 10 days before it expired, during an unprecedented joint visit here by the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany, Jack Straw, Dominique de Villepin and Joschka Fischer.

But Khamenei warned the Europeans that they also had to live up to their commitments -- providing technical assistance if the IAEA deems that Iran has cooperated, and a pledge that tougher inspections will not infringe on Iranian sovereignty.

"If the discussions with the Europeans continue in the way they have been going, we will continue. But if parties in the dialogue or our enemies want to step in and show excessiveness, everything will be disrupted," he said.

"If we reach the point where our national interests and the regime's values are tarnished, we will have no doubts about cutting off this process."

Khamenei, who was speaking during an iftar meal -- the evening dinner that breaks the daytime fast observed by Muslims during the holy month of Ramadan -- also warned that "the regime's enemies should not imagine that the Islamic republic is trapped."

The term "enemies" usually applies to the United States and Israel, both of which allege Iran is using its atomic energy programme as a cover for nuclear weapons development.

But amid opposition to the nuclear accord from some hardliners -- many of whom have called for Iran to follow the path of North Korea and pull out of the NPT altogether -- Khamenei appealed for unity behind the deal.

"This issue should not bring about differences. Officials, intellectuals, the press, MPs, Friday prayer leaders and those who have access to public podiums have a very heavy resposibility," he said.

And Khamenei reiterated Iran's determination to generate nuclear power, touted by officials here as crucial for meeting future energy needs.

Part of this, he said, was Iran's mastering of the complete nuclear fuel cycle.

This is something the European foreign ministers would rather see kept out of the country -- hence calls for a suspension of uranium enrichment here and an unwritten pledge of eventual nuclear fuel supplies.

"Some countries say that Iran does not need to produce nuclear fuel. These countries are trying to take charge of providing Iran with nuclear fuel for its plants in order to take Iran and Iranians hostage and put pressure on the Islamic republic," Khamenei said.

"But, based on international regulations, we will produce nuclear fuel," he said, warning that: "If anyone wants to challenge the Islamic republic in the area of peaceful nuclear activity or interfere in our internal affairs, they will get a blow to the mouth."

Reformist President Mohammad Khatami, who was also present at the meeting, emphasised that "Iranian officials did not commit themselves to something that is irreversible.

"It is the other side that has to keep its word and promises," he said.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/55358/1/.html

Israel wants pressure kept up on Iran over nuke plan

Monday, November 03, 2003 - ©2003 IranMania.com

MOSCOW, Nov 3, (AFP) -- Israel wants the international community to keep up the pressure on Iran over its nuclear program, an official accompanying the Israeli prime minister on a visit to Russia told AFP Monday.

"Europe has made a step in the right direction in making Tehran, under threat of sanction, accept tighter controls of its nuclear installations," the official said.

"But international pressure must be constant as Iran wants to gain time and fool the world in regard to its intentions," he said.

The official is part of a delegation accompanying Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on a three-day visit to Russia, and on Monday was due to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russia is building Iran's first nuclear power reactor at Bushehr, which has been fiercely criticized by Washington and Israel.

Israel hopes that Russia "is doing everything possible to prevent the transfer of technologies on uranium enrichment and fusion that are indispensable for developing a nuclear program that constitutes a strategic menace for Israel," the Israeli delegation official said.

Iran, which has been branded by US President George W. Bush part of an "axis of evil" along with Iraq and North Korea, has faced growing international criticism in regard to its nuclear program.

In September the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) imposed an October 31 deadline on Iran to fully disclose details of its nuclear program and urged it to sign the additional protocol to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) allowing tougher inspections by the UN watchdog.

Iran was also urged to suspend uranium enrichment.

After initially rejecting the deadline, Iran agreed to comply with IAEA demands just 10 days before the deadline expired during an unprecedented joint visit by British, French and German foreign ministers.

Iran has also pledged to sign up to tougher inspections, but has yet to implement its agreement to suspend its work on the nuclear fuel cycle.

And on Sunday, it said that it remained unwilling to totally halt uranium enrichment.

"Our uranium enrichment activities are still in their early stages, and it has only been several months since we began. We have said we agree to voluntarily suspend this, but not stop," Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi told reporters.

http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?NewsCode=19313&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs

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