Posted on 11/18/2003 8:40:56 AM PST by Tumbleweed_Connection
BOBBY JINDAL'S DEFEAT in the Louisiana governor's race Saturday is a bigger loss for Republicans than just an office they've held for eight years. For now, it denies the party an impressive new national figure, a 32-year-old Indian-American who's destined to be a political star sometime--but not yet. Why did Jindal lose after leading his Democratic opponent, Kathleen Blanco, in statewide polls in the weeks before the election? In a word, race. What occurred was the "Wilder effect," named after the black Virginia governor elected in 1989. Wilder, a Democrat, polled well, then won narrowly. Many white voters, it turned out, said they intended to vote for a black candidate when they really didn't. Questioned by pollsters, they were leery of being seen as racially prejudiced. Jindal's advisers worried that he might lose the "Bubba vote," rural whites unwilling to vote for a black candidate or even a dark-skinned Indian-American. The Jindal camp's fears were realized. A Republican normally needs two-thirds of the white vote to win in Louisiana to compensate for losing nearly all of the black vote. But Jindal got only 60 percent of whites, according to an analysis by GCR & Associates Inc., a political consulting firm. Its findings were reported in the New Orleans Times-Picayune. Had Jindal fared better among blacks, he might have won despite losing white votes. But he got only 9 percent of blacks, this after mounting a highly-publicized effort to attract black voters. Jindal was endorsed by several black political organizations, a former associate of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., and New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, who is black. Nonetheless, he did only slightly better among blacks than Republicans normally do. Jindal, whose parents moved to Baton Rouge from India shortly before he was born, won 70 percent of the white vote in the New Orleans area. But outside that urban hub in the more rural and poorer parts of the state, only 48 percent of whites voted for Jindal, according to the GCR analysis. Blanco's victory was hailed by Democrats, and for good reason. It broke the Republican winning streak in governor's contests this year. (One of those new Republican governors, Arnold Schwarzenegger, is being sworn in today in California.) Republicans also won in Kentucky and Mississippi, seats that had also been held by Democrats. In Louisiana, Republican Gov. Mike Forster is stepping down after two terms. His successor, Blanco, is a conservative Democrat opposed to abortion and tax increases and closer philosophically to Democratic Sen. Zell Miller of Georgia than to most national Democrats. Jindal, a Brown University graduate and Rhodes Scholar with a dazzling résumé, ran a positive campaign, calling himself a "problem solver." When Blanco ran a TV commercial attacking his tenure as head of Louisiana's hospitals, he didn't respond directly to the charges, though he criticized her for going negative. Some Republican strategists thought his campaign was simply too nice for the rough and tumble of Louisiana politics, especially when he left serious charges unrefuted. Had he won, Jindal would surely have emerged as a national spokesman for the Republican party. For one thing, he is a policy wonk who talks knowledgeably about health care, Medicare reform, and education. For another, he would add to the ethnic diversity of Republican leaders. But his time has not yet come.
We sure do.
Why shouldn't that appeal to blacks? What is the GOP not doing that it should be doing? And as Libertybelle321 points out, with 91% of the vote going elsewhere, what is the ROI? Why should we care? Meanwhile, latinos appear to be responding to the GOP message. What about blacks taking some responsibility for themselves? To create stable families. To promote decent values. To reach out to us ugly white folks? What about that? Ask not what your country can do for you....
You're behind the times, Huck. Strong appeals to black voters have been paying off recently. But support for Republicans just isn't going to go from 5% to 50% overnight. Bobby Jindal got almost twice the support Republicans in La. normally get, 9%. Jim Talent is in the US Senate because he made a strong appeal to black voters on black-oriented radio stations, etc, so they weren't motivated to go to the polls to vote against him.
But in order for support to grow beyond the gains we've had, Republicans have to be involved year-round. If we just show up at election time, or in certain races, why should blacks think we care about them? At least the Democrats pretend to.
Rarely do you have an opportunity to cut into your opponent's base. If Democrats only lost 5% more of the black vote they would be completely sunk. Anyone who doesn't understand this needs to go back and learn their arithmetic.
I'm interested to know where the rubber meets the road on this. You mentioned communicating via black-oriented radio. In terms of issues, I believe the GOP is--rightly--color blind. Conservatism applies to any person of any color. Other than spending marketing dollars and time on channels targeted to blacks, what else should they be doing? And I would also like to know if that shouldn't be happening from the bottom up. Unless it's a close race, seems to me the smart thing to do is not spend money on black oriented channels, where your ROI is very low.
That's too bad. I was looking forward to hearing what you had to say.
Well, then, there's no reason why I should care at all what you think, unless you're a democrat...
So we should make those conservative appeals on radio stations, for example, whose audience is mostly black (hip-hop/rap/R&B stations, generally). It's a good way to reach that audience.
Other than spending marketing dollars and time on channels targeted to blacks, what else should they be doing? And I would also like to know if that shouldn't be happening from the bottom up
Bottom up and top down. One example: a local community advocacy group, upset at the local PD decision not to to increase patrols of their crime-ridden, heavily black neighborhood, raised private funds to hire private security. Many Republican office-holders contributed, no Democrats did. The leader of the effort was invited to a weekly conservative breakfast series, and later became a Republican and ran for city council. But often it's just a matter of showing up to community events (elected officials or rank and file) and being in touch with their concerns.
Unless it's a close race
If it's not a close race . . . you should have plenty of time and resources to devote to making inroads into your opponent's base. Plus helping down-ballot candidates, and improving your standing for future races. I'm not sure what your point is with closeness.
seems to me the smart thing to do is not spend money on black oriented channels, where your ROI is very low.
You apparently ignored my last post, which addressed the excellent ROI that candidates have gotten for relatively inexpensive radio ads.
Attack strategy turned the tide
Jim Beam
REPUBLICAN GUBERNATORIAL hopeful Bobby Jindal is a victim of his own success. Praised in 1998 as the wonderboy who saved Louisiana's Medicaid program for the poor, Jindal's successful health care record was turned against him by the state Democratic Party.
Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco, a Democrat who defeated Jindal to become the state's first female governor, had never run advertising criticizing an opponent. However, two weeks ago Blanco's advisers, many of them among the Democratic Party faithful, told her she had to go on the attack to win.
DR. EVAN P. Howell of Amite, a retired physician in a wheelchair, volunteered to lead the attack, and it was a masterful stroke. He portrayed health care patients as Jindal's victims.
Blanco said Howell was adamant about telling his story. "I called him after I saw his spot and told him I thought it was very powerful," Blanco said.
Political analysts said Blanco's comeback victory was dramatic. She had trailed Jindal by as much as 10 to 14 percentage points in election week polls.
"She pulled it off by going after him as a numbers person, not a people person," said Wayne Parent, an LSU political scientist. "She emphasized her humanity and experience and contrasted it with his youth and inexperience."
Parent added, "She changed the campaign in the last week to human versus robot. That was her trump card."
Elliot Stonecipher, a Shreveport political analyst, said, "We're talking about a 14 point net change from either Monday or Tuesday night, so that makes it the biggest meltdown by a major campaign in such a short period of time, certainly in my career.
"The health care issue hurt him badly, and older people, probably anybody 60 or over, had to have broken disproportionately to Kathleen in the end."
Jindal said he has no regrets about his failure to respond to attacks on his health care record.
Political experts think it was a major failure on Jindal's part.
Jim Nickel, a former executive director of the state Democratic Party, said negative ads allowed Blanco to control the message.
Gov. Mike Foster, who got Jindal into the governor's race and backed him without reservation, was also critical of the failure to respond.
"I think they missed a cardinal rule of politics: They didn't respond quickly to attacks," Foster said. "They could have prevented that and had a response up in 12 hours, but they didn't do it."
The results speak volumes about the success of the new Blanco strategy. She carried 52 of the state's 64 parishes and was a big winner among women and black voters. Her margin of victory was 54,567 votes out of 1.4 million cast.
Evidence of Jindal's success as secretary of the state Department of Health and Hospitals was reported in January of 1998 when Jindal resigned as head of DHH to head a congressional commission on Medicare.
The Medicaid program was costing over $4 billion when Foster became governor in 1996. Most of it was federal money and abuse was rampant. The feds insisted that Louisiana was going to have to pay more to attract federal dollars and trim its program. Jindal helped stabilize the program and reduced costs to $3.2 billion. Most of the reductions were achieved by cutting frills, insisting that clients go to primary care physicians rather than to emergency rooms and curbing abuses by health care providers.
A key element was necessary to make those changes. Jindal had to have the full cooperation of the Legislature to overhaul the Medicaid program. That is where the budget is trimmed. Without the changes, thousands more would have lost health coverage.
All of that is of no consequence now. However, it shows how Democrats were able to twist Jindal's record of achievement to their advantage and how Republicans missed a golden opportunity to fight back.
In the final analysis, it was a political stroke of genius. Blanco would not have won without the change in campaign strategy.
None of that should dampen enthusiasm for Blanco's election. Political analyst Parent said her victory is a definitely a plus for the state.
"Louisiana has shown the nation that we are a changed state," Parent said. "She's a woman, she's clean and there is not an inkling of corruption about her."
Blanco will take office Jan. 12, and the economy and health care are the top two items on her agenda.
THE SELECTION of legislative leaders may be Blanco's first major obstacle. Senators who want to be president of their chamber and representatives who want to become speaker of the House are already jockeying for position.
Blanco indicated she will have a role in those selections, and it will be our first indication of how aggressive she will be as governor. Some of the leading candidates for those posts are old-school politicians who can only hamper Blanco's effectiveness.
State Sen. Willie Mount, D-Lake Charles, has been mentioned as a possible candidate for Senate president, and she would be an excellent choice. House Speaker Charlie DeWitt, D-Lecompte, wants to hold on to his job, but it's time for a change there.
Voters put Blanco and Jindal in the runoff because they wanted a departure from the politics of the past. Legislators need to keep that in mind when they vote for new leaders.
What Blanco needs from the Legislature is cooperation and a commitment to making Louisiana a better place to live. We wish her well.
Are you stupid? A candidate loses the total vote so you dismiss his sucessful strategy to double the GOP black vote and avoid high black turnout?
How do I know that targeted outreach to blacks helped Jim Talent by convincing blacks to stay home. And is that what we want from outreach anyway?
Do we want the Democrats' base of support to stay home on election day? YES, HELLO! Not as good as getting them to vote for us, but it's halfway there.
Listen, I don't do this stuff for a living. What the hell do I know?
I'm just looking for a little commom sense and finding none. You think I do politics for a living? Hell, no!
"Doubled" is an insignificant statistic. If I get one black person to vote for me, and the next time I get two, I have doubled the result. Who cares? It looks like he was able to get--surprise surprise--about 1 out of 10. And he lost. So, while I don't think I am stupid, I am not moved by this example.
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