The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia

JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | January 6, 2004 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

An article I published today about the rising Red Chinese naval capabilities.

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[Jeff Head]

FYI...an article I published today while working on Volume V of my series.

Got to run to an eye doctor appointment now...will check back in on this later.

[knighthawk]

Bump

[Dubya]

Thats very intresting.

[sauropod]

Thx for posting this. 'Pod

[Alamo-Girl]

Thank you so much for the article!

[cyn]

YIKES -- thanks for posting this and for the ping.

Especially, thanks for taking our heads like one would a 2 year old's head to ensure attention is focused where it needs to be . . .

ping for FL engineer, fyi in case.

[Ff--150]

Thanx for posting this--bttt

[4CJ]

If the Chinese were to complete this carrier and then augment it with designs of their own to the point where they were producing several of them, the balance of power in the region would shift dramatically.

It's not up to me to wonder why ... ;o)

[John H K]

Not a particularly balanced portrayal of the PLAN.

Some key aspects:

1) Chinese Naval forces are utterly devoid of ANY combat experience, whatsoever, since they were crushed by the Japanese in the late 1800s.

Too often people spend too much time counting beans and technology and ignore things like experience and training, which is far more important than ANYTHING else.

2) The overwhelming majority of the PLAN is comprised of old, worthless crap.

The desire to bash Bill Clinton seems to get in the way of objective analysis of the Chinese Navy around here, for some reason.

[Libertina]

BUMP Glad you are keeping up on this. *Anyone* ever contact you to discuss this stuff or see your research?

[Travis McGee]

Bump for careful read in a little while!

[DakotaGator]

Good article.

The Communist Chinese consider the U.S their primary enemy. They are preparing to fight us & win. And they are doing it with our money & technology.

One of Clinton's legacies is his wholesale treason of massively transferring critical technology to the Communist Chinese. (Make no mistake. This was not about money. Clinton was and is a Communist agent recruited and run by the Soviet Union and passed to Communist China.) Communist China's naval build-up is just one of the results.

Our counter-strategy needs to be kick-started. Not only do our Naval forces need to be expanded, but we must aid & integrate our allies.

We must quit messing around about Taiwan. Allow Free China to buy the equipment they have been clamoring for. Continue the push for expansion of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force plus South Korea's and the Republic of Philipine's navies. Make overatures to India. And start holding massive integrated naval exercises with these and ANZAC navies.

The dragon is awakening, and he is hungry.

[John H K]

The latest carrier obtained in this fashiopn is the most troubling. It is the Russian carrier, the Varyag. The Varyag is.a relatively modern design and could be made into something that is very capable.

Nope.

It's a rusted out hulk in disastrous shape (it wasn't sealed properly and was left open to the elements for years) and very little was completed on it besides the basic hull.

One could only hope the PRC would be stupid enough to try to put it back into service. Would probably take more time and money than building a new one.

Given construction time, the immense amount of time to figure out and train for the intricate dance of carrier operations, you're probably looking at 15-20 years for the PLAN to have anything even vaguely resembling real carrier capability.

[CasearianDaoist]

Do you ever get anyone in the government to listen to you?

[John H K]

Our counter-strategy needs to be kick-started. Not only do our Naval forces need to be expanded, but we must aid & integrate our allies.
You could cut the strength of the US Navy in half and it would beat the snot out of the PLAN in a few days, for the foreseable future.

Continue the push for expansion of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force

By themselves, with no US involvement, the Japanese Maritme Self-Defense Force would absolutely kick the living bejesus out of the PLAN right now. And the Japanese are increasing their capabilities faster than the Chinese.

[ought-six]

"The desire to bash Bill Clinton seems to get in the way of objective analysis of the Chinese Navy around here, for some reason."

Well, gee, it was Bill Clinton who almost singlehandedly allowed China to become the threat it is. It was Bill Clinton who gave the go-ahead for the Chinese Navy to establish facilities in Long Beach, California.

[LS]

Jeff, just ordered vol. 4.

[LS]

Jeff, just as a caution---and I worked on Soviet weapons threats as my secondary area for about 15 years, mainly Soviet naval developments---what often appears as "highly capable" or "advanced technology" on the surface has almost universally proven to be far less capable once we found out the "innards" of these systems.

The best example was the "Alpha" submarine---a titanium-hulled, super-fast attack sub supposedly capable of 45 kn. One small problem: we later learned that it could ONLY attain this speed for VERY short bursts. The sub, like a drag racer, had to be towed to its patrol lanes. It could not sustain its speed for any length of time, and it was known in the Navy as a "grenade": pull the pin and watch it blow up.

Or consider the MiG-25 "Foxbat," once thought to be a terrifying B-1 killer because of its high speeds. Yet we learned that it was still using vacuum-tube technology; had a terrible turn radius; and could go straight like a bat out of hell . . . but do little else well.

I'm not saying that the Russkies and Chinese can't build quality stuff. I am saying that it is as great a danger to overestimate an enemy's capabilities as it is to underestimate them.