The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia

JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | January 6, 2004 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

Thank you each for the BUMPs and reading the article!

[cincysux]

Not to mention each of the 4 Sovremenny destroyers are equipped with 8-SS-N-22 Sunburn ramjet anti-ship missiles (nuclear capable). Methinks the Russians are still deadly enemies along with the PRC.

[Jeff Head]

You're both very welcome.

[Jeff Head]

You're both very welcome.

[Jeff Head]

Right now the ability to project naval power in that region of the world and control sea lanes (vital to us and our allies for the unimpeded flow of material and oil) is completely skewed in our favor.n That's a good thing.

A potential agressor like Red China developing similar capability moves the balance away from that.

[Jeff Head]

Right now the ability to project naval power in that region of the world and control sea lanes (vital to us and our allies for the unimpeded flow of material and oil) is completely skewed in our favor. That's a good thing.

A potential agressor like Red China developing similar capability moves the balance away from that.

[LS]

The main thing they have to worry about, naval-wise, is that our Los Angeles class vessels are still light years ahead of their ASW. Don't even get into the Seawolf class.

In 1981, when the Ohio conducted its first sea tests vs. our own ASW, it was so quiet our own ASW couldn't find it. We knew then that the Soviets had no chance of ever detecting these boats. It was one main reason we did not press for the longer-range Trident II missile . . . the extra range simply wasn't needed.

[Little Ray]

Is it possible that the PRC is getting ready to fight an enemy that will not exist when their preparations are complete?

By that, I mean the USN may have evolved substantially by the time the PLAN is ready to fight the current USN. It may be a situation sort of like preparing to fight a war with battleships just as the carrier and the submarine become the dominant forces at sea. I am not certain what the "future war" concepts of the USN embrace, so it would be interesting to see a post on it.

On the other hand SSN-19 "Sunburns" hurt no matter how advanced your surface forces get...

[Jeff Head]

Actually the Varyag was 60-70% complete when construction was halted and the Russians removed a substantial number of systems that had already been installed.

As to its sea-worthiness, it was towed half way around the world through some major gales and arrived safely.

It would be far cheaper to take such a vessel, refit and complete it to something akin to its original intent, particularly if the Russians are willing to help...than to design and build a new one from scratch. The Varyag is a proven design that is working for the Russians (the Kusnetszov) and where the Russians have more limited funds for maintenance and training, the Chinese would be in a position to pour more into it I believe. My guess is, given the history of dealing with the Chinese, the Russians would be willing to deal for hard currency.

The Russians are doing just this with the Indians, with another, older carrier, the Admiral Gorshkov, which was a predecessor to the Kuznetzov and Varyag,and that sat around a lot longer than the Varyag.

Now, as to whether this is what the Chinese actually want to do or not is yet to be seen and is anyone's guess. IMHO, they certainly are taking a good look at it though.

[Jeff Head]

They ceetainly don't mind selling some of their best surviving stuff to our greatest potential agressor.

[Jeff Head]

Well, we are looking at Litoral Combat ships, Sea-basing and a number of other interesting avenues in the near to mid-term.

I believe the PLAN is taking as much of that into account as possible.

As I stated earlier, short of bankrupting us, they will not be able to keep pace with us tit for tat in conventional or future ships and missiles IMHO, and they will have to find some asymetrical way of leveling the filed, particularly as regards our carriers.

The carriers trump them right now, but you can bet they are working on it.

[Jeff Head]

The Chinese are working on the submarine issue as well. They recently launched one of their new SSN's which apparently have gotten them up to the Victor III level or so.

Not a match for our boats, particularly not the Improved LA class, the SeaWolf or the Virginia...but in the confined spaces of the South China Sea and the Formosa Straits in particular, still a threat that cannot be written off.

The Chinese are going to have to still come up with something significant to make any hegonomy plans stick...and that means something asymetrical to couple with their advances IMHO.

[Jeff Head]

Oh...I somehow missed this. Thanks a lot!

I hope you enjoy it and believe that if you liked I-III that you will certainly enjoy and have fun with Volume IV.

Please let me know what you think when you are finished.

[harpseal]

BTT for a great reference article.

[Jeff Head]

Thanks my friend. The PLAN is feverishly pumping out new, modern combatant classes. As you know, they are not doing this just because. Best Fregards.

[Simcha7]

SHALOM!

Hi...Jeff,

Happy New Years Blessings to You and Your Household.

And Your post # 25 on this very interesting thread is as Always...100% Correct!

The Book of Revelation talks a great deal about the Great DRAGON (This IS CHINA, Not the long gone reptile/animal).

The Chinese are smart but they still do Not have the Tech capacity to overcome the USA...at least Not yet.

The one thing that they Do have is "man power"...they Out Number US many times Over.

Certainly any kind of Act of War perpetrated by the Chinese on the USA would be Very Messy indeed and Our retaliatory response will be Massive and NASTY.

[Jeff Head]

The italics are not my quote...they come from DakotaGator in post number 14.

I was agreeing with him in my post.

The Chinese understand asymetrical warfare. Their entire Sun Tsu military philospohy is based on it.

All warfare is deception.

They know they are not conventionally capable at this time, but they are certainly working towards "finding a way". At some point they will think they have and in their own time act. I pray we are prepared and vigilant and believe we shall prevail just the same.

But, it would be better to do with them as Reagan did with the Soviets now, than wait for them to make the move...particularly when they are funding most of this with our own monies.

[Melinator]

I believe that the Japanese have remained relatively disarmed and have agreed to never go offensive or "pre-emptive" like the U.S. Something about losing the last war and all that. Do you think they should be let out of that agreement?

[cyn]

eye appointment?

[Dubya]

Your welcome Jeff my friend. Keep em coming.