Iranian Alert -- February 6, 2004 -- IRAN LIVE THREAD --Americans for Regime Change in Iran

The US media almost entirely ignores news regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran. As Tony Snow of the Fox News Network has put it, “this is probably the most under-reported news story of the year.” But most American’s are unaware that the Islamic Republic of Iran is NOT supported by the masses of Iranians today. Modern Iranians are among the most pro-American in the Middle East.

There is a popular revolt against the Iranian regime brewing in Iran today. Starting June 10th of this year, Iranians have begun taking to the streets to express their desire for a regime change. Most want to replace the regime with a secular democracy. Many even want the US to over throw their government.

The regime is working hard to keep the news about the protest movement in Iran from being reported. Unfortunately, the regime has successfully prohibited western news reporters from covering the demonstrations. The voices of discontent within Iran are sometime murdered, more often imprisoned. Still the people continue to take to the streets to demonstrate against the regime.

In support of this revolt, Iranians in America have been broadcasting news stories by satellite into Iran. This 21st century news link has greatly encouraged these protests. The regime has been attempting to jam the signals, and locate the satellite dishes. Still the people violate the law and listen to these broadcasts. Iranians also use the Internet and the regime attempts to block their access to news against the regime. In spite of this, many Iranians inside of Iran read these posts daily to keep informed of the events in their own country.

This daily thread contains nearly all of the English news reports on Iran. It is thorough. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a nation. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary. The news stories and commentary will from time to time include material from the regime itself. But if you read the post you will discover for yourself, the real story of what is occurring in Iran and its effects on the war on terror.

I am not of Iranian heritage. I am an American committed to supporting the efforts of those in Iran seeking to replace their government with a secular democracy. I am in contact with leaders of the Iranian community here in the United States and in Iran itself.

If you read the daily posts you will gain a better understanding of the US war on terrorism, the Middle East and why we need to support a change of regime in Iran. Feel free to ask your questions and post news stories you discover in the weeks to come.

If all goes well Iran will be free soon and I am convinced become a major ally in the war on terrorism. The regime will fall. Iran will be free. It is just a matter of time.

Iran reformers lose battle of the lists

Gareth Smyth Tehran
February 6 2004

Iran's student news agency, ISNA, reported on Friday that the Guardian Council had finished its review of candidates barred from this month's parliamentary elections and would reinstate only another 200.

This would leave well over 2,000 candidates disqualified and confirm the fears of Iran's reformers that the Guardian Council, a constitutional watchdog, was seeking to hand victory in the February 20 poll to the conservatives even before the election campaign began.

"The work of the review of the cases finished last night and we reported our work to the office of the supreme leader [Ali Khamenei] and today we will report it to the ministry of the interior," Ayatollah Ahmad Janati, head of the Guardian Council, told ISNA.

Since the council announced the banning of 3,600 candidates over three weeks ago, the reformers have discussed various options for resisting but have failed to present a clear strategy to a largely disinterested public.

President Mohammad Khatami has argued consistently that the matter could be resolved through discussions with the Guardian Council and the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.

More radical figures, including leading members of Mosharekate (Participation Front), the main reformist party, originally argued that the interior ministry, which is controlled by reformers, should include the names of "illegally" barred candidates on voting lists.

The country's 28 provincial governors, responsible for administering the poll, have also discussed resignation.

Both strategies, said their proponents, would require the support of Mr Khatami, which appears not to have been forthcoming.

As 80 deputies ended a three-week sit-in on Wednesday, some criticised the reformist president for hesitancy.

The supreme leader, by contrast, proved decisive. On Wednesday Mr Khamenei made it clear that the poll would go ahead as planned and that anyone who attempted to "withdraw" from the political process would be acting against both Iran's law and the Shariah, the canonical law of Islam.

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1075982354659

Quake Opens Door to Gospel
How Christians are trying to ease tensions in the Islamic Republic.

By John W. Kennedy 02/06/2004

Christian ministries are walking through a door thrown open by the deadly December 26 earthquake. They are working on improving relationships with Iranians, and taking advantage of opportunities to demonstrate the Christian faith to them.

The December 26 temblor in Bam, 630 miles southeast of the Iranian capital Tehran, killed an estimated 34,000 people and injured 30,000 others. The Iranian government waived visa restrictions, allowing aid from Christian agencies and elsewhere.

John Schenk, communications manager for World Vision, says working side by side with Iranians in the relief effort will ease tensions between Muslims and Christians.

"Ideologies and politics have not been part of the discussions," Schenk said. "It's been about the shock they've suffered and what motivates us to help."

Clive Calver, president of World Relief, said the opening is unprecedented. "The church has something to offer that is more valuable than food or blankets," Calver said from Bam. "We can pray in the name of Jesus."

Still, Ken Isaacs, director of projects for Samaritan's Purse, said opportunities for evangelism must wait. "The heart of our ministry is sharing the mandates of Christ," Isaacs said. "But this is an Islamic society. We're not preaching."

Evangelical Protestants in Iran number around 30,000, a majority of them Muslim converts. Muslims who convert can face intimidation, jailing, and even death. Iranian Christians International in Colorado Springs reported that there are around 200,000 ethnic Armenian or Assyrian Christians. They include communities of Presbyterians, Anglicans, Orthodox, Catholics, and Pentecostals.

Calver said Iranian evangelicals across the country have been at the forefront of the relief effort, because there has been no organized church in Bam.

Evangelicals "moved out of their safety zones" after the earthquakes, Calver said. "With people of this spiritual caliber, nothing will stand in the way of their being faithful to the Lord Jesus."

An Iranian pastor in exile who has regular contact with Christians in the country said 28 recent converts lived in Bam, but 25 died in the quake; the other three suffered injuries. Most became Christians as a result of radio ministry. They had been meeting in a home.

A minister in Tehran told Christianity Today that Iranians are very open to the gospel. Iranian Christians International guesses as many as 100,000 people have become Christians as a result of radio, satellite television, or Internet evangelism. Yet those commitments sometimes fade.

Only 3,000 evangelicals lived in the country in 1979. Missionaries were expelled after the Islamic revolution, and as many as 90 percent of the churches were closed. The exiled pastor told CT that weekly church services now are held in fewer than 20 church buildings in the country. While there are an estimated 150 house churches in Iran, security concerns often curtail gatherings. Several Christian leaders have disappeared or been murdered, including four Assemblies of God pastors in the 1990s.

http://www.christianitytoday.com/ct/2004/003/10.19.html

Iran Reformers Lose the Battle

February 06, 2004
The Financial Times
Smyth Tehran

Iran's student news agency, ISNA, reported on Friday that the Guardian Council had finished its review of candidates barred from this month's parliamentary elections and would reinstate only another 200.

This would leave well over 2,000 candidates disqualified and confirm the fears of Iran's reformers that the Guardian Council, a constitutional watchdog, was seeking to hand victory in the February 20 poll to the conservatives even before the election campaign began.

"The work of the review of the cases finished last night and we reported our work to the office of the supreme leader [Ali Khamenei] and today we will report it to the ministry of the interior," Ayatollah Ahmad Janati, head of the Guardian Council, told ISNA.

Since the council announced the banning of 3,600 candidates over three weeks ago, the reformers have discussed various options for resisting but have failed to present a clear strategy to a largely disinterested public.

President Mohammad Khatami has argued consistently that the matter could be resolved through discussions with the Guardian Council and the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.

More radical figures, including leading members of Mosharekate (Participation Front), the main reformist party, originally argued that the interior ministry, which is controlled by reformers, should include the names of "illegally" barred candidates on voting lists.

The country's 28 provincial governors, responsible for administering the poll, have also discussed resignation.

Both strategies, said their proponents, would require the support of Mr Khatami, which appears not to have been forthcoming.

As 80 deputies ended a three-week sit-in on Wednesday, some criticised the reformist president for hesitancy.

The supreme leader, by contrast, proved decisive. On Wednesday Mr Khamenei made it clear that the poll would go ahead as planned and that anyone who attempted to "withdraw" from the political process would be acting against both Iran's law and the Shariah, the canonical law of Islam.

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1075982354659&p=1012571727172

Iran 'Has Secret Atomic Bomb Project'

Telegraph - By Anton La Guardia
Feb 6, 2004

America has convincing new evidence that Iran is hiding an atomic bomb project despite Teheran's promise to open up all of its nuclear facilities to international inspectors, a senior US official has told The Telegraph.

He said the Teheran regime was secretly trying to build a second and more advanced uranium enrichment plant in parallel to the large facilities in the town of Natanz revealed to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) last year.

"There is no doubt in our mind that the Iranians have a lot that the IAEA does not know about," said the official. "The Iranians have a military programme that the IAEA has never set eyes on."

Another western source confirmed that the nuclear technology smuggling network headed by Abdul Qadeer Khan, Pakistan's top nuclear weapons scientist, had sold much more equipment to Iran than Teheran has so far admitted to.

The latest intelligence on Iran, if corroborated, will ignite an intense international crisis with the Iranian regime.

The US seems, for the moment, to be seeking to strangle Iran's nuclear programme through inspections and diplomatic agreements brokered by Europe.

But the presence of US troops either side of Iran - in Iraq and Afghanistan - is a reminder to the regime that Washington retains the declared option of "pre-emptive" military action. Clear-cut proof of a secret nuclear weapons programme in Iran would be an acute embarrassment for Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, who has invested heavily in "engagement" with the clerical regime.

Last October three European countries - Britain, France and Germany - brokered a deal whereby Teheran supposedly came clean about its nuclear programme and in return was spared action by the United Nations Security Council.

Iran also agreed "temporarily" to suspend uranium enrichment at the Natanz plant. But western diplomats said it had continued to buy components, assemble centrifuges and test the equipment.

Senior diplomats from the big three European countries this week met Iranian officials in Vienna to demand that Teheran halt these subsidiary enrichment-related activities, but reached no agreement. It was not clear whether they discussed US suspicions that Teheran had a second secret enrichment plant.

Iran claims it has only sought to make low-enriched uranium as fuel for a planned civil nuclear reactor to generate electricity.

But it admitted to lying to the IAEA for 18 years, saying it had made a small quantity of highly-enriched uranium and also separated a few grams of plutonium - both weapons-grade fissile material. According to US and other western sources, it is now clear that Iran has been hiding much more. In particular, they believe Teheran has been trying to build a G2 centrifuge with high-speed rotors made of maraging steel, a light but high-strength form of the metal.

This is a more efficient model than the aluminium-based G1 design that is under IAEA inspection in Natanz.

Both versions are based on Dutch designs stolen in the 1970s by Mr Khan when he was working as a metallurgist in the Netherlands for Urenco, the British-German-Dutch nuclear fuel consortium. Libya bought both the G1 aluminium and G2 maraging steel versions from Khan's network. Moreover, a shipment of maraging steel centrifuge tubes destined for North Korea was seized by Japan last year.

Western intelligence agencies are trying to find out whether Iran and other countries have bought a design for a nuclear bomb that was sold to Libya by Pakistani scientists.

Officials will not say precisely how they have established that Iran is still working on an atomic bomb. But a wealth of information is emerging from the unravelling of the "nuclear supermarket" supplied by Mr Khan. Western intelligence services were already acting against the nuclear black market before Pakistani authorities began to "debrief" Mr Khan.

It is possible that along with the seizure of maraging steel shipments bound for Libya and North Korea, the intelligence agencies found a similar trail leading to Iran.

Nevertheless, officials admit that their information is still "sketchy".

It is unclear whether Iran has assembled a secret "G2" centrifuge plant, or even whether it has all the necessary components.

Diplomats in Vienna say, for instance, that Libya still had large "holes" in its centrifuge programme before abandoning the project.

"There is much that we don't know," said the senior US source. "We don't know how far the Iranians have gone, but they are making progress. "They are developing a completely indigenous capability. At some point cutting off the external support will not be enough to stop it."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=%2Fnews%2F2004%2F02%2F06%2Fwiran06.xml&secureRefresh=true&_requestid=4694

Super Bowl, Iranian style
Dad sweeps, mom cooks, brother surfs

By Lilly Ghahremani
February 4, 2004
iranian.com

2:30 pm.
I enter my parents' house. They are not home, having left town to celebrate my father's birthday with -- what else? -- a weekend at a Palm Springs casino. I can hear my brother tapping away on his computer at the other end of the house, and direct myself into the TV room. There, I eye the two couches to assess which will offer a better perspective and choose the one closer to the door. Sweeping my brother's dirty socks from before me, I fall back onto my throne.

Pregame Show
A guy named Josh Groban comes and serenades the next NASA flight team. In the tradition of all things American, before we cut to 4 hours of what we can anticipate will be a merciless flood of the results of ridiculous advertising budgets, the government apparently felt it necessary to plug federal spending. He sings with sincerity, taking his part in the evening more serious than the teams themselves do. I try to drown out his warbling and note to myself that he didn't think twice about donning a wool scarf... in Houston. When a chorus of awkward children join in, I know I am ready for the next musical exercise.

The Anthem
I listen to the anthem belted out by Beyonce Knowles and marvel at not only her incredibly powerful voice, but her impeccable hair. Is that suit Chanel?

First Quarter
My brother has not retreated from his cave to say hello, but my parents have called to let me know that they are still on the road. They're sorry to be late and look forward to watching the game together, mom says, but there was another casino on the way back and they had to go "investigate". No matter. The game is 0-0 and I have yet to see a commercial that really makes me laugh.

Second Quarter
Things are starting to pick up. In our household, I mean. The garage door has flown open and mom and dad are home. Mom rushes into the tv room with a bag of goodies from a far-flung designer outlet mall. Christmas is about to revisit the Ghahremani household. As she begins to ruffle the tissue paper in the bag, my American blood curdles.

"Mooooooom, it's the Super Bowl. Ugh. LATER! Sheesh!"

I roll my eyes but don't want to miss any more of the game. She looks at the television and waits for a commercial break, only to be greeted with more of my screaming.

"NOT DURING THE COMMERCIALS! NEVER DURING THE COMMERCIALS! DON'T YOU KNOW ANYTHING?"

The glow of gift-giving washes from her face and she shuffles from the room. A month ago, I would have heard the anxious clicking of a lighter echo from the kitchen, but her New Year's resolution was to quit smoking. I quickly reflect upon my snappiness and assess that: 1) I am a bitch, and 2) only on Super Bowl Sunday would this make me a very good American.

Before these thoughts can sink in, mom has returned from the kitchen with a diet coke and the resolve that she will watch the Halftime show with me.

Halftime
Enter Janet Jackson. Before the first verse is out of her mouth, my mom begins what I fear will become a running commentary. "She looks just like Michael, but natural. She dances like him too." I am proud of my mom for recognizing who Janet is but for some reason feel the need to pick a fight.

I keep one eye on the television and decide that this is an important time to fill her in on the "Jesus juice" gossip (and Muslims get a bad rap on TV?) she has missed while out hitting 21 in the desert.

When P.Diddy comes out, I feel the need to point out the useless trivia that he is not "just" a rapper, but a well-educated graduate and entrepreneur.

As the show continues, I feel an increasing obligation to be a cultural ambassador. As the performers change places, I'm not sure how to explain Nelly, the next rapper, to her. As soon as he's begun, we're back to the Shamed King of Pop.

She points out that "Everyone does that now-ever since Michael Jackson." (What, mom?) "The grabbing thing. They all grab themselves now!" She is right, and I wish for the show, and this awkward cultural tour, to end. How can I sit and listen with any self-respect to Nelly holler "Ass is bodacious" in such direct proximity to a true poet who reveres Hafez?

I feel some sort of relief when the camera pans. That is, until I realize that we are being greeted by the disturbing sight of Kid Rock in an American flag poncho. (And this is the same nation that refuses to let you burn it?)

Before we can "enjoy" his performance, Janet is back, and this time she's joined by Justin Timberlake. I am now genuinely excited, explaining to mom how he's filling in the very shoes of Michael Jackson (see "Jesus juice", above).

It is thankfully before I can confess to her that I've paid to see him in concert that he begins running around after Janet and -- spanking her. Not once, but every single chance she gets within grabbing distance.

As I watch a man spank a woman on television with my mother, I am acutely aware that I want to fall into the cracks of the couch and join the legions of tokhmeh that therein reside. The camera pans out for the infamous baring of Miss-Jackson-If-You're-Nasty's breasts, and I sense that we are all somewhat relieved that the game is back on.

Third Quarter
My father peeks around the corner and asks what we're watching. For someone who religiously monitors world events, I search my mind for ways this event could have escaped him.

As he surveys the room, his eyes zoom like lasers, focusing on the dog hair that has coated the carpet in his 48 hour absence. He promptly decides that RIGHT NOW is the time to clean. He disappears for a moment, returning with a broom. He then sweeps up and down the hallway, stopping to alternately comment that my dog is disgusting, and my brother needs to shave.

Halfway down the pike, he stops his sweeping, looks in and asks, "How long is this going to go on?" My mom excuses herself to go prepare dinner and, if I know her, to occupy him so that I may watch the conclusion of the game in peace.

But he will not be budged. Arm on the broom, he watches one team score (We're Iranian. Does it really matter which?). But dad is too smart for this game. "Tsk. See, now the other team will get it and score. Uh oh. Watch."

I hear the distant clicking of my brother on the computer, and know that I will never again wonder why he is not an athlete. They adjourn for dinner.

Fourth Quarter
The game is heating up. In the last 3 minutes of the game, Mom has returned with a plate of steaming food for me. Hearing our furor over the fact that "Muhammad scored!"

My father's curiosity has gotten the best of him and he sneaks back into the TV room. My brother soon joins us at the couch for the grande finale. My parents cheer in unison "kick it straight", and Vinatieri hears them.

As the Patriots win, we all cheer and show our commitment to American pastimes by watching the blah ceremony crowning Tom Brady MVP. When my mom mentions that Brady is a pro-Bush Republican, I sense that Dad may have just become more interested in football.

Without further ado, the players retreat to their locker rooms, Mom goes to brew a round of chai and we change the channel.

God bless America.

http://www.iranian.com/Diaspora/2004/February/Lilly/index.html

Friday, February 06, 2004

Iran Acquires Cruise Missile

February 06, 2004
DEBKAfile
DEBKA-Net-Weekly

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary regime last month marked the 25th anniversary of its victory over the Shah by launching a sophisticated missile dubbed Raad and its accompanying advanced radar system designated DM-3b. Minister of defense Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani led the ceremony in full naval dress uniform.

The official handout described the radar system as navigating and guiding the combatant missile in its final stage. The medium-range Raad missile is equipped with a self-guidance device. Shamkhani enthused: the two systems manufactured in Iran’s state aviation industry further enhance the capabilities of Iranian armed forces.

What the handout did not reveal was that Raad is no ordinary coastal or shipboard projectile but a cruise missile, capable of halting Personal Gulf shipping by blockading the Hormuz Strait. It can also choke off incoming and outgoing sea traffic via the Shatt al-Arb, Iraq’s only exit point for its oil exports and entrance for its vital imports.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly ’s Gulf sources report launching bases for the new missiles are going up at four places on Iran’s Gulf coast: the northern end at Bandar a-Khomeini opposite the mouth of the Shatt al Arb and facing Kuwait and Bahrain, at Bushehr, site of its nuclear reactor, at the big Bandar Abbas naval base and Revolutionary Guards headquarters, and at Bandar e-Lengeh west of Qeshm Island.

From these installations, Iranian missiles will cover the tanker and merchant ship lanes leading into the Persian Gulf from the Indian Ocean through the Gulf of Aden.

A fifth launching base will be located on the small highly-strategic island of Great Tumb situated just north of the Hormuz Strait at the mouth of the Gulf.

According to our military experts, the locations of the new Raad missile bases betray both aggressive intent and determination to defend Iran’s Gulf shore from assault by warships or hostile marine landings. Iran’s military command appears to be preparing the country’s national defenses for an anticipated American attack in the course of 2004 or early 2005.

http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=782

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