Posted on 02/07/2004 12:54:31 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
It really depends on your reasons for going into space if Mars or the Moon should be the focus of America's space efforts.
If it is for high adventure, photo ops and the advancement of science then Mars is a good goal. Exploring at the bottom of a deep gravity well, under a highly variable atmosphere will guarantee a variety of photo ops and high adventure from the blazing entry into the atmosphere to fighting global dust storms. Even with robots there is high adventure from the speculation on the lost Beagle and Mars 1999 Lander to the problems of working with robots light minutes away with only short windows for communicating with Earth. Mars is also complex enough to occupy scientists for generations. Unfortunately high adventure, photo ops and science are all that Mars offers the Earth.
Discovery of any life on Mars will be a collective "ho hum" for the general public the majority of whom already believe UFO's are visiting the Earth. Its only impact on science will be to confirm or deny a few theories on how life begin, but so many biologists expect life to be found elsewhere its impact there will also be less then folks expect. A few discovery channel specials and then it will fade into the textbooks. Its major impact will likely be on environmentalists since they will have the burden of another planet to protect and giving more reason to oppose space exploration.
There is no real economic value to the Earth in going to Mars. The overall impact on the economy of a Mars mission will be minor, just the direct effects of the money spend. There is little chance of Mars providing the spark for new industries or for commercial firms to have a role like the Moon. I rather gamble on a untested but potential economic model like lunar resources than the nonexistent one (even in theory!)for Mars.
Basically Mars is a great goal for personal glory in science or for high adventure, but will not be of much value in meeting the challenges facing the Earth in the 21st Century. It’s the perfect illustration of the saying from Robert Heinlien's "This Planet is about used up, time to go find another." It is a therefore a good goal for those that dream of running away from the Earth's problems rather then helping solving them. The old west and manifest destiny is actually a good illustration for Mars as many pioneers headed for the frontier as a means of escape.
The Moon is just the opposite. It has the potential to play a key role in helping overcome the challenges facing the Earth in the 21st Century. What the moon offers is the opportunity to create new industries that will help human civilization meet the challenges of a sustainable civilization for the future. Energy from the Moon, regardless if its He3, SSP, PGMS or a combination of all three will help replace fossil fuel. The cumulative economic impact of OPEC since 1973 has been a 7 Trillion dollars premium on energy costs to the west so the economics will work out once the basic research is funded.
The Moon may also be a source for raw materials or unique products developed in its high vacuum/low gravity environment. Mass drivers have the potential to ship whatever resources the Moon produces to Earth as a low cost. Remember the Moon shipping wheat to Earth in RAH's "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress"?. While wheat would not be worth it PGM's and other products may well be. In any case the lack of an atmosphere and low gravity are an asset for the Moon that Mars just doesn't. And being only a three day flight from your biggest market in the Solar System, versus months away like Mars, is not a bad deal either. . The close proximity to Earth also allows easier remote operation of robots and easier support of humans at a lunarbase. Unlike Mars, the Moon has the potential to create new industries that may well employ tens of thousands, perhaps millions of "remote" workers on Earth. Environmentally friendly jobs that will be in industries that will help make this world a better place. Local Chamber of Commences will love the new industries created and will probably have more impact on Congressional support then any combination of space advocates have had once these industries started to emerge from the new space initiative. Remember all politics are local and members of Congress know who they must keep happy. Talk to a member of Congress about solving the secrets of the universe or opening a new forntier and they will nod to be polite. Tell then how to create new high paying jobs in their district and you will have their undivided attention and support.
Unlike Mars, the Moon offers numerous opportunities for the same type of government/commercial alliances that were so critical to opening the American West. Its even close enough that space tourism is feasible, another industry Mars will not be able to offer for generations and a way to generate even more new jobs.
Sure the Moon is dull to folks seeking the glory and adventure of Mars. That is actually one of its advantages since the public is "bored" with the Moon there will be less focus on photo-ops or missions designed to hype the public on it. This is good since the public is often fickle (Apollo showed that!) and any venture depended on public support like a mission to Mars will suffer from shifts in the public's mood. By contrast the very lack of public interest in the Moon may allow a space initiative focused on it to be consistently implemented since support will be based on the tangible economic and security benefits to the nation from a lunarbase, not the intangible ones associated with Mars. Unlike Mars, the Moon will be a world for the working class, not for folks seeking a new frontier to escape to from society.
That is why I am working for a return to the Moon, instead of a rush to Mars, Because I am not interested in space for the glory or science or a place to escape to, but because of its potential to make America more competitive and secure. The Moon will contribute to those goals, Mars will not. Its that simple.
In terms of the history of the future it is the missions to Mars that will be looked on as the cul-de-sac just like the European search for a Northwest Passage is a now seen as a sideshoe to the history of North America. A lot of effort and no real results except high adventure and some scientific glory. That is Mars and is what draws folks to it like a moth to a flame....
Once I learned that, I realized there was no subject I could not master given a little time.
Read. Read. Read.
Observe, Observe, Observe,
Question, Question, Question,
Try/fail, try/fail. try/learn...
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