Iranian Alert -- February 20, 2004 -- IRAN LIVE THREAD --Americans for Regime Change in Iran

The US media almost entirely ignores news regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran. As Tony Snow of the Fox News Network has put it, “this is probably the most under-reported news story of the year.” But most American’s are unaware that the Islamic Republic of Iran is NOT supported by the masses of Iranians today. Modern Iranians are among the most pro-American in the Middle East.

There is a popular revolt against the Iranian regime brewing in Iran today. Starting June 10th of this year, Iranians have begun taking to the streets to express their desire for a regime change. Most want to replace the regime with a secular democracy. Many even want the US to over throw their government.

The regime is working hard to keep the news about the protest movement in Iran from being reported. Unfortunately, the regime has successfully prohibited western news reporters from covering the demonstrations. The voices of discontent within Iran are sometime murdered, more often imprisoned. Still the people continue to take to the streets to demonstrate against the regime.

In support of this revolt, Iranians in America have been broadcasting news stories by satellite into Iran. This 21st century news link has greatly encouraged these protests. The regime has been attempting to jam the signals, and locate the satellite dishes. Still the people violate the law and listen to these broadcasts. Iranians also use the Internet and the regime attempts to block their access to news against the regime. In spite of this, many Iranians inside of Iran read these posts daily to keep informed of the events in their own country.

This daily thread contains nearly all of the English news reports on Iran. It is thorough. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a nation. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary. The news stories and commentary will from time to time include material from the regime itself. But if you read the post you will discover for yourself, the real story of what is occurring in Iran and its effects on the war on terror.

I am not of Iranian heritage. I am an American committed to supporting the efforts of those in Iran seeking to replace their government with a secular democracy. I am in contact with leaders of the Iranian community here in the United States and in Iran itself.

If you read the daily posts you will gain a better understanding of the US war on terrorism, the Middle East and why we need to support a change of regime in Iran. Feel free to ask your questions and post news stories you discover in the weeks to come.

If all goes well Iran will be free soon and I am convinced become a major ally in the war on terrorism. The regime will fall. Iran will be free. It is just a matter of time.

The End of ILSA?

February 20, 2004
Stratfor
Stratfor.com

Summary

Japan and Iran on Feb. 19 finally sealed a $2 billion deal on the 26-billion-barrel Azadegan oil field. The announcement marks the beginning of an Iranian oil rush -- not because the Japanese have arrived, but because the Americans are about to.

Analysis

Japanese state oil firm Inpex finalized discussions Feb. 19 with an affiliate of the Iranian National Oil Co. and agreed to invest $2 billion in the 26-billion-barrel Azadegan oil field in southwestern Iran. Inpex will hold a 75 percent stake in the operation. The first oil is expected in 2007, with a full flow rate of 260,000 barrels per day projected for 2012.

Initial discussions with Japan over developing the Azadegan superfield began in the mid-1990s, but always ran afoul of the U.S. Iran-Libya Sanctions Act, which threatens sanctions on any firm that does business in either country. Despite the fact that Japan imports 99 percent of its 5.3 million barrels of daily crude usage, fear of angering the United States meant that U.S. pressure kept the project from becoming realized. After all, the United States is Japan's security guarantor and largest trading partner.

The finalization of the deal has nothing to do with the skill of Japanese diplomats and everything to do with the ongoing rapprochement between the United States and Iran.

Washington and Tehran quietely have been negotiating a means of working together on issues of mutual interest for nearly a decade. Before the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the two worked hand- in-glove to dominate the Persian Gulf and keep the various Arab powers -- as well as the Soviets -- in check. In many ways, the events of Sept. 11, 2001, galvanized both players. The attackers were mostly Saudi; al Qaeda originated in Saudi Arabia, and most of the money that keeps the network going is believed to come from Saudi families. The United States, therefore, started looking for ways to dump its erstwhile Saudi ally and link up with Riyadh's natural counterbalance, Tehran.

It was Iraq, a longtime foe of the United States and Iran, which ultimately provided the impetus for detente. Once U.S. forces ejected Saddam Hussein, Washington had to figure out how to return the country to Iraqi rule. Since the majority of Iraq's population is Shiite -- the type of Islam followed in Iran -- the groundwork was laid for U.S.-Iranian cooperation, whether the two wanted it or not.

Now the players are working out the details for Iraqi elections and a formal transfer of power that again will make Iran the dominant player in the Persian Gulf -- a dominant player indirectly backed by the United States. The only major task left for Tehran and Washington is figuring out how to break the news to their respective populations that the U.S.-Iranian cold war is over. Even this process is rapidly accelerating.

With Washington and Iran playing kiss-and-make-up, it will be only a matter of time before ILSA, and its effects on Iranian energy, fall by the wayside. Iran pumps 3.9 million bpd, a figure it wants to nudge up to 4.5 million bpd by 2005 and 8.0 million bpd by 2020.

This is a realistic schedule for Iranian production, since ILSA already is on its way out. Once Libya opened its weapons program to international inspection, U.S. firms perked up at the possibility of regaining access to the country. Tripoli's cooperation has been so thorough, in fact, that the "L" in ILSA might be removed in time for the U.S. presidential elections in November.

Iran will take longer. The bad blood between the United States and Iran is far thicker than it was between the United States and Libya, simply because Libya never managed to humiliate Washington -- unlike Iran, which did so twice (the embassy seizure and the subsequent botched rescue attempt).

Make no mistake: Washington-Tehran relations are on a path of rapid improvement. ILSA has never really been enforced, but the threat of its enforcement has acted as an anchor on Iranian energy development. This will be true no more. By this time next year, U.S. firms are likely to be poking around the Islamic republic right alongside their Japanese counterparts.

http://www.stratfor.com/

•By the afternoon, Tehran-based independent reporter Arash Qavidel says crowds began to gather at the Hosseinieh Ershad mosque voting center in the northern part of the city, and the urnout continued to increase in the early hours of the evening until 9 PM.

•Several people reached by our reporters in the Kurdistan province cities says only the government employees and the armed forces' personnel appeared to be voting. A Tabriz voter says soldiers at an army barracks where his brother serves were told to turn in their ID cards so that ballots could be filled in their names.

•In Khatunabad, of the Kerman province, the scene of bloody labor protests in which the special police forces killed four demonstrators and wounded 150 last month, a resident tells Radio Farda of almost no turnout.

•In Marivan, Kurdistan, where angry demonstrators ransacked local campaign headquarters of conservative candidates last week, a resident tells Radio Farda that people curse anyone who votes, adding that the cities of the Kurdistan province, which are close to the Iraqi border, have received anti-election propaganda literature distributed by exile anti-regime opposition groups.

•Khoramabad-based journalist Abbas Dalvand says voter turnout was low, and those who voted were motivated by tribal, not political, interests.

•Rasht-based Reporter Kambiz Karimi said in some Gilan province cities, conservative candidates had pre-paid voters, nevertheless, he adds, the turnout is expected to be lower than 12 percent.

•Shiraz reporter Farid Yasamin says, since only one reformist candidate had been approved to run for the city's Majles seat, low voter turnout was predictable.

•Tehran-based journalist Kiarash Tehrani says most government employees and factory workers voted to avoid being confronted by their bosses at work.

•Tehran-based reporter Iman Azimi says election officials at an uptown voting center told him the voter turnout appears to be lower than that of last year's municipal elections, which was the lowest in the history of the Islamic Republic. He adds that young people send text messages using their mobile phones in a campaign against voting. He adds that most young people preferred to spend their weekend (Friday) skiing or hanging out with friends on the mountains north of Tehran, a trend which was also reported by AFP in a dispatch from Tehran.

•In poorer eastern and central neighborhoods of Tehran, people, mostly elderly and traditional families, were lined up to vote, using lists of candidates issued by the conservative Abadgaran coalition, London daily Guardian's reporter in Tehran Dan De Luce tells Radio Farda. However, voter turnout appears low in the uptown middle-class neighborhoods, he adds. In the provinces, where candidates represent tribal or ethnic groups, turnout is higher, he adds. (Shahran Tabari, London)

•In the morning of the elections day, Tehran streets are empty, and it feels like a New Year holiday, Tehran-based lawyer Mohammad-Hossein Aghasi tells Radio Farda. Unlike previous elections, during which voting centers were so crowded that people had to wait on line for hours in order to vote, this morning no traffic could be seen in several voting centers, he adds. The voice of the people, which turned into a loud but silent cry in the empty streets today, should be heard by the authorities, before these silent cries turn into a revolution; which as our people and people everywhere in the world have experienced, always accompanies death and destruction. The low turnout today is a message, which I hope the authorities will hear, Aghasi says. (Fereydoun Zarnegar)

•The turnout today was the lowest in the 25-year history of the Islamic revolution, Tehran University's economy professor and leftist activist Fariburz Raisdana tells Radio Farda. The people have lost interest in the idea of elections, because they do not think voting has any impact on their lives, he adds, predicting that by this evening when the voting ends, the total turnout would not exceed 30 percent of eligible voters. The next Majles will be unable to resolve any of the crises faced by our country, and thus, those crises will continue to mount and turn into disorders and other problems. (Fereydoun Zarnegar)

http://www.radiofarda.com/transcripts/topstory/2004/02/20040220_2030_0900_1050_EN.asp

Iran's conservatives claiming a victory

The Houston Chronicle
21 Feb 2004

Tehran, Iran-AP -- Iran's Islamic rulers say voters have rejected the election boycott reformers wanted by turning out in big numbers. But official figures are not available yet.

The balloting is expected to return the parliament to hard-line control. A significant turnout could weaken the reformers' credibility. They've already called the election a sham because 24-hundred of their candidates were barred from running.

The Guardian Council says more votes were cast Friday than in the last parliament election in 2000, which had a 67-percent turnout.

In another measure of turnout, the state-run news agency reported 31 percent of Tehran's six and a-half (m) million voters cast ballots. That compares with 42 percent four years ago. Tehran is a reformers' stronghold.

The government kept polls open an extra four hours to add to the turnout.

http://www.team4news.com/Global/story.asp?S=1657708

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.