Post-Ky., S.D. takes GOP’s center stage

thehill.com ^ | 02/24/04 | Lauren Shepherd

[KQQL]

Republicans are reeling after the Democrats’ special-election victory last week in Kentucky, but they are gearing up for another big fight, in South Dakota.

With three months to go until the June 1 special election, Republican state Sen. Larry Diedrich, the GOP’s candidate to replace Bill Janklow (R), has been making fundraising visits to House Republicans and the House Republican Conference office.

His opponent is Democratic attorney Stephanie Herseth, and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has begun asking House members to help Diedrich add to his war chest.

NRCC spokesman Carl Forti said fundraising efforts will likely parallel those in the Kentucky race. There, Republican state Sen. Alice Forgy Kerr raised twice as much as Democrat Ben Chandler, although she ultimately lost the race.

Diedrich said he has raised nearly $300,000 in the three weeks since the state Republican Party chose him as the candidate. Some of this money has come from the NRCC and Hill lawmakers. He said he does not know who has given the money, or exactly how much. With the Kentucky race over, House members and the national committee would now focus more on his race, he said.

Last week, Diedrich traveled to Washington to meet Republican members and garner additional support. He was pleased with his reception, saying, “The commitment has been, ‘You tell us what you want.’”

He intends to return to Washington this month to continue campaigning and raising money.

Herseth has similarly had no problem raising money on Capitol Hill. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s leadership political action committee, PAC to the Future, has made two contributions of $5,000 each.

Senate Minority Leader Thomas Daschle (D-S.D.), who also faces South Dakota voters this year, has contributed $2,000, and Rep. Bob Matsui (D-Calif.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), gave Herseth $1,000.

Herseth has raised nearly $700,000 so far, spokesman Russ Levsen said. Herseth has not received any firm commitments from House members to campaign with her in the state, Levsen said, but he added that he wouldn’t be surprised if members join her on the trail.

Herseth had “been in contact” with the DCCC, he said, and there has been more of a focus on the South Dakota race in the past week.

DCCC spokeswoman Kori Bernards declined to specify how much money the party has raised for the South Dakota election but said, “We’re going to be very competitive.”

Bernards said the committee would most likely use a strategy similar to the one that helped Chandler win in Kentucky — a combination of television ads designed to “highlight the strength of the candidate” and get-out-the-vote efforts that tap into anti-Bush sentiment.

“There’s definitely a strong feeling that the country’s not going in the right direction,” Bernards said. That feeling was helpful in mobilizing the party base and swing voters in Kentucky. Kerr had tied her campaign to Bush’s popularity, using him in television ads and saying the two had similar stands on many issues.

Forti blamed Kerr’s defeat partly on Chandler’s fiscally conservative message, which drew Republicans to his cause, and on the Democrat’s “tremendous name ID.”

Chandler served in state government for 12 years, both as an auditor and attorney general. His grandfather, A.B. “Happy” Chandler, was a well-known politician who served twice as governor and once in the Senate.

More recently, the Democrat ran unsuccessfully for governor against then-Rep. Ernie Fletcher (R-Ky.). The special election was held to fill Fletcher’s seat.

“It was hard to catch up,” Forti said. “We’re not going to have that problem in South Dakota.”

This is Herseth’s second run for the at-large seat. The Democrat, who comes from an established political family in South Dakota, lost her 2002 bid against Janklow.

Janklow won the race with 53 percent of the vote, eclipsing Herseth by nearly 27,000 votes. The first-term congressman, who formerly served as governor, resigned from his House seat after being convicted in a traffic accident that killed a motorcyclist. Janklow is serving 100 days in prison.

[KQQL]

“It was hard to catch up,” Forti said. “We’re not going to have that problem in South Dakota.”

------
Oh Really
-------

SD house Election - 06/01/04
Herseth 58% - Diedrich 29% - Undecided 13%
Mason Dixon Poll
MOE+/-3.5% (Reg Voters) 02/07/04

[TheBigB]

Janklow left a bad taste in everyone's mouth in SD. This race was over from the minute it started. Herseth will win by double digits.

[KQQL]

I wonder if she campaigns with Kerry, and will she
be for or against Gay marriage Amendment

[ICE-FLYER]

Republicans are reeling after the Democrats’ special-election victory last week in Kentucky, but they are gearing up for another big fight, in South Dakota.

TRANSLATION: "We really want all of the readers reading this to think that the GOP hasn't really got anything going for itself and that the massive victories including Bush in 2000, and the MID-Season elections heavily favoring GOP except for Louisiana are nothing and that the GOP is going down down down. Believe it believe it we can make a difference, after this is objective reporting!!!"

END OF TRANSLATION

[KQQL]

wow, you give up easy..

[GiveEmDubya]

""I wonder if she campaigns with Kerry, and will she
be for or against Gay marriage Amendment""

Hmmm...a field test for Bush on this issue?

Anyway, I'll never forget Janklow for what he did for America--he gave us Tom Daschle. And now, maybe Herseth. He is the Medusa of South Dakota politics.

[JohnnyZ]

“It was hard to catch up,” Forti said. “We’re not going to have that problem in South Dakota.”

It is likely that Herseth's support is far softer than Chandler's.

[TheBigB]

Hey, I hope I'm wrong. I'd love to have everyone else say, "I told you so" if Diedrich wins. But facts are facts. Janklow was a four-term Governor in a GOP strong state who, really, barely beat her the first go around. She is obviously a very dynamic campaigner. Now she's got twice as much money as her opposition, a little-known State Senator. Give me a reason to be encouraged and I will be.

[KQQL]

Yes....

Abortion/Gay Marriage/Guns/Farms issues/Tax Cuts will be the issue in SD.

Chandler was pro-gun/pro-life.......................anti-gay marriage....

She is a typical RAT..
Pro-choice.
Anti TAx Cuts.
Anti-Gun.
etc,

[KQQL]

IF ANYONE WANTS TO CONRTIBUTE TO Diedrich, here's his
site:

http://www.diedrichforcongress.com/default.asp


http://www.diedrichforcongress.com/contribute.asp?Flag=1

[TheBigB]

Still lookin' for posyt z# 10. ;-)

Like I said, I hope I'm wrong. This situation sounds exactly like KY to me. Albent Larry has much more time to get his message out. We'll see.

[KQQL]

answer to your question...read post # 10...

---

also, she has the upper hand @ this time, but Larry can win

[JohnnyZ]

Janklow was a four-term Governor in a GOP strong state who, really, barely beat her the first go around.

That doesn't mean he was particularly popular -- nor unpopular either. Janklow is known to butt heads with anything that moves. Not the warm, fuzzy type. The new vs. old comparison with Herseth didn't help him either.

She is obviously a very dynamic campaigner.

That is true, and Diedrich is certainly the underdog.

[KQQL]

u don't read marsian? lol

[GiveEmDubya]

I have a feeling that the gay marriage vote in Congress will have shades of 1994 in it. When the AWB passed, Bill Clinton's Dems lost both houses of Congress and could attribute the losses of about 20 seats to it. I don't just think this will affect the Presidential race, but Congressional races as well. God help the rural/suburban Southern Democrat who votes "nay".

[TheBigB]

The new vs. old comparison with Herseth didn't help him either.

How old is Diedrich? Is he a high-energy guy who can compete with her on the stump?

[SoDak]

There was talk of her bringing the Hildabeast in to campaign, but I think she has realized it would be political suicide. With all the Emily's list money she has, she won't need anyone to campaign. At this point, she looks to be way out in front, and she may be, but it's important to remember that she was also as far out front in the last election cycle and couldn't turn those numbers into actual votes. I'd say a large portion of the Stephanie fans are easily dissauded from voting by something as simple as a sale at Marshall Fields.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

Do you think the amendment will actually come up for a vote this year?

[floriduh voter]

bttt from S. Dakotan for life.

[JohnnyZ]

He's about 45, and seems energetic enough from what I can see, but SoDak's a long ways away and it's about time to switch to a new pair of (disposable) contacts

[SoDak]

I believe Larry is in the latter half of his 40's. In his case, a slight graying will probably help him and hurt her. He appears as the archetype east-river farmer. The polls reflect NO name recognition for Diedrich. Once he gets his story out, I think things will turn quickly. Hopefully Gov Rounds will help him out too, with his 90's approval rating.

[GiveEmDubya]

I have no idea. All depends on what Congress wants to do with it (or what Bush wants to do with it).

[KQQL]

her money is coming from:


-----

To help keep track of online contributions, some blog owners have suggested the following additions to let us know they are coming from their readers:

Calpundit readers add $.15
Daily Kos readers add $.01
EdCone.com readers add $.13
Eschaton readers add $.18
The Hamster readers add $.04
Instapundit readers add $.03
pandagon.net readers add $.07
Political Wire readers add $.09
Seeing the Forest readers add $.02
Talk Left readers add $.11
Talking Points Memo readers add $.22
Yellow Dog Blog readers add $.36
http://www.hersethforcongress.org/blog04.htm

[KQQL]

Helping Seniors with the Cost of Prescription Drugs. I am encouraged that Congress has seen the need to add a prescription drug benefit under Medicare. However, I support changes to the new law that will preserve the Medicare system and that will do more for seniors, particularly rural seniors, than for pharmaceutical and insurance companies.
==
more spending....

[SoDak]

Oh yeah, she knows old people vote. Not all of them are fooled though, a lot of my mom's friends, all in their 60's and 70's, think she's condescending. My mom is a one woman campaign force in her town, after I got her politically engaged in 2000.

[KQQL]

bad news foe rats

----
"It is wrong to write discrimination into the U.S. Constitution and it is shameful to use attacks against gay and lesbian families as an election strategy," said Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe. "It appears that the conservative compassion he promised to deliver in 2000 has now officially run out," McAuliffe added

[Dems_R_Losers]

I just talked to someone who was very involved in the Kentucky race (it's my home district) and he said what the Dems did was identify 35,000 Democrats who hate President Bush and they got every single one of them to the polls. Turnout was HUGE. They also spent a lot of money on direct mail to Democrats and on large ads in small town papers, while of course the Republicans spent everything on TV. The NRCC totally blew that election and now they are making excuses that Chandler had better name ID and Kerr couldn't catch up. That's a load of BS. So I expect a similar result in South Dakota.

[ColoradoDakota]

Herseth is particularly vulnerable on abortion. She is one of the key endorsees of Emily's List (and NOW). However, you will look in vain on her site for her views on the issue. Small wonder given the very pro-life vote in this very Catholic and Lutheran state.

Two things might flush this issue out: (1) Currently an anti-abortion bill is making its way through the SD Senate and it has already passed the House. Politicians will be forced to make a stand. (2) The highest Catholic in the state - Bishop Carlson of the Sioux Falls - is already on record about Roman Catholics and abortion and will most likely reiterate this position. This will not be helpful to the CINO (Catholic in name only) Daschle.

[ColoradoDakota]

Bill Janklow burned many bridges in his long tenure in SD. I can attest to "Janklow fatigue". He was an arrogant and self-consumed character (who also happened to do a LOT of good things for my former state) and he grew tiresome. He created much ill will in 1986 when he ran in the primary against incumbent senator Abdnor, who, in turn, was weakened and lost to Daschle by 5,000 votes.

Herseth was the fresh face; a change from the face of Janklow, in 2003.

But Larry Diedrich is also a fresh face and will be an excellent candidate. His agricultural background is impeccable.

[JohnnyZ]

her money is coming from:

I doubt that much money is generated from blogs. Chandler was bragging about raising $40,000 from blogs. Whoopee.

[ColoradoDakota]

Kerr was not the greatest candidate. Let's face it. Chandler had overwhelming name recognition (and the Chandler name going back to his gf Happy Chandler is storied) AND Kerr had a VERY short time line to overcome that.

Herseth also has strong name recognition and a famous South Dakota name (her gf was Governor, her gm held a constitutional office, her father - Lars - was a high-ranking state Senator) BUT Larry Diedrich has over 3 months to overcome this. Remember, that although South Dakota is a geographically large state, the vast majority of people tune into the TV stations from just two markets - Sioux Falls and Rapid City. The name Larry Diedrich will be known - trust me on that.

[ColoradoDakota]

Diedrich is a college-educated farmer with international ag experience. I am hard-pressed to think of the last farmer who represented SD in D.C. Perhaps Clint Roberts who won in 1980. Anyway, Diedrich will hit this HARD and it WILL have appeal from the many Republican farmers who have been Daschle voters in the past because Daschle brings home the pork.

Another thing about Herseth is she is seen by many as an opportunistic carpetbagger. She chose not to go to college there, nor grad school and then worked in a DC law firm. She only returned to SD to run for the 2002 Congressional seat.

She's a single, pro-abortion, post-feminist, Georgetown-dwelling, beltway-working lawyer.

Compare to Diedrich. Went to the state's largest university - South Dakota State U. - and built up the family farm while raising his large family. Here's what his website states:

"Larry and his wife Jackie have been married for 21 years and have four children, Joshua, Brandi, Christopher and Mikkail. Larry and Jackie have shared their home with two foster daughters and two foreign exchange students. Larry attended Elkton High School and South Dakota State University, graduating with an animal science degree in 1979. Before returning to the farm in 1982, Larry was a district sales manager for Cargill Seeds in Illinois. Serving the public has been a focal point for Larry's activities off the farm. He has held state and national leadership positions in various organizations representing agriculture, his church and the state of South Dakota."

[ColoradoDakota]

Last one (I promise).

Lost in the conventional wisdom of Democratic strength in the state of South Dakota is that almost every statewide office is held by Republicans (Gov., Lt. Gov., AG, etc.), both houses of the legislature are controlled by the Republicans and the GOP has well over a 10% registration advantage. The GOP's strength is in its county organizations and they are STRONG. There will be no schisms in supporting Diedrich as there was with Janklow.

The Dems strength, incongruously and unfortunately, is limited to the two US Senate seats. (My theory is the rational thinking that Dems are more adept and guileless of bringing home pork.)

Also, the last time that a Democrat was a Congressman was 8 years ago when Tim Johnson gave up his seat to run for Senate.

A prior posting from FR by fieldmarshaldj, on 8/22/03, was encyclopedic on this:


"Until 1983, SD had 2 House seats, divided east and west. Republicans Ben Reifel (an American Indian) and E.Y. Berry both decided to retire in 1970, and embarrassingly, we lost both seats to 'Rats Jim Abourezk and Frank Denholm. The badly incapacitated GOP Sen. Karl Mundt was unable to run for reelection in '72 and Abourezk took his seat. In 1972, the former Lieutenant-Governor, Jim Abdnor, took back the Berry (Abourezk) seat that year. Denholm lost for a 3rd term in '74 to [Republican] Larry Pressler (which actually was a good year for the GOP in SD, we almost knocked off McGovern with POW Leo Thorsness and a 35-year old Bill Janklow won the 'Rat held Attorney-General's office and we came close to knocking off Dick Kneip for his 3rd term). Abdnor deferred to Pressler as Abourezk embarrassingly (for him) was forced to retire (as I mentioned Kneip did early) in '78, but remained a thorn in his side for the next 20 years spreading all sorts of obscene rumors about Pressler (including the infamous gay rumors). Alas, Pressler's seat went to Tom Daschle who beat Leo Thorsness by a very questionable margin (around 100 votes, if I remember) and when Abdnor vacated and the seat went to GOP newbie Clint Roberts in '80, Roberts and Daschle had to run statewide against each other when the state went to one House seat. Had it been '80, Roberts might've beaten him, but '82 was a bad GOP year, and Daschle prevailed. From 1983-97, Daschle and his successor, Tim Johnson, held the lone House seat. When Thune won in '96, he had been the first GOPer since '80 with Clint Roberts to win a House seat. So from 1971-97, aside from '75-'79, the 'Rats have occupied either one of the old two seats or the At-Large one."

[Meldrim]

Yes, Senator Abdnor was a good man. I never did get the full story on why Janklow decided to challenge him.

[buckalfa]

The South Dakota race could validate fears I have that the
GOP could lose one or both houses of Congress this November.
Despite the facts behind the issues, I feel there is a
very real hatred for Bush among the hard core Democrats,
and that hatred just may be channeled into donations and
voter turnout drives that will catch the GOP napping in
state elections while Rove and company devote their
resources to saving the Bush presidency. The golden
opportunity derived from the 2002 elections may be lost
by the GOP due to sheer arrogance.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Diedrich has to hit Herseth on the head on abortion. He has to let everyone know that she's a pro-abortion liberal. Once voters are aware of this, Herseth will drop like a rock in the polls, and it will all be about turnout in the general election.

[GiveEmDubya]

Let's not forget, Janklow apparently has an ego the size of an Escalade. He's the top dog and he likes everyone to know it. A man lost his life because Janklow was being a pompous, law-breaking ass. There is no excuse for that. Hopefully Thune has learned a lot and will take Daschle out in November.

My dream night on November 2...

Bush wins early, Kerry outraged and makes a snippy concession speech, while Bush's victory speech is positive and chock full o' vision.

Republicans score Senate and House gains, Carville places large garbage can on head (again). This time, he leaves it there. We do better than expected in state and local races.

After failing to find enough Chief Red Sitting Bull (1845-1923)'s, Thune wins in South Dakota, and Daschle is deeply saddened to the nth degree in his concession. He starts to cry like a little girl on national television, and announces that after he leaves the Senate, he's going to have a sex change and move to Vancouver.

The plastic surgery work on Nancy Pelosi's face melts after her party dips under the 200 seat level for the first time in a VERY long time, and her face ends up looking like a mix between the Jason mask and Phyllis Diller.

Paul Begala's forehead explodes and covers Wolf Blitzer in ooze as he calls California for Bush.

Those are but a few things I would love to see in November. A few of them are actually possible!

[Clintonfatigued]

Fortunately, there is time for Diedrich to establish name identification and catch up in the polls. Alice Kerr didn't have that luxury.

[nickcarraway]

BUMP