[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 278 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate would receive 260 Electoral Votes.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[CholeraJoe]

I've got a feeling about Pennsylvania. Tom Ridge was a very popular governor there.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Bush's weakest states:

FL-68%
MO-65
NV-65
OH-65
NH-58

Kerry's weakest states:

DE-65
WA-65
OR-61
ME-61
MN-59
IA-57
WI-54
MI-53
WV-53
PA-51

[LincolnLover]

Why does Texas rank below a few states with only a 93% rate at the moment?

I'll bet a year's salary plus a few non-vital organs that John Kerry does not win Texas...lol.

[JLS]

Vary interesting and similar to the results that Dales has projected as of yesterday based on state by state polling:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1088011/posts

To me it is comfortable that both reasonable methods come to similar conclussion TODAY. I emphasize the today because it could turn out to be a landslide one way or the other even if it is close today.

[Momaw Nadon]

Ping!

[Phisher]

Nebraska 94.0 -- Bush

I love my state

[alwaysconservative]

Call me a cock-eyed optimist, but I think President Bush will gain Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and even Iowa this time around. He only lost NM by a few hundred reservation votes, so that one is probably a flip from blue (last time) to red. I worry about Ohio, WV, and Michigan, though, no matter what the numbers say.

[NYS_Eric]

What a great site. Thanks for posting this info, which I'm bookmarking.

Honestly, this is probably about the most accurate "polling" you're going to see anywhere in 2004. When money is on the line, accuracy (in my opinion) tends to rise.

I like how Florida looks from here. I'm surprised Minnesota is not closer. This will be fun to track in future weeks.

[So Cal Rocket]

While there is no change in the total Electoral Votes at the bottom line from last week, in 5 out of the 6 states that had their percentages change from last week, Bush is weaker:

Bush numbers down:
Arizona - 75 to 73
California - 18 to 17.6
Illinois - 30 to 23
Nebraska - 95 to 94
Wisconsin - 49 to 46

Bush numbers up:
Iowa - 42 to 43

[jcb8199]

Hopefully this is a prophecy, not a poll...

[freedom44]

ping

[SoftballMominVA]

Ahhhh, VA is only 85%????? Son of a gun.

[Fiddlstix]

Bump

[NYS_Eric]

FYI...

[only1percent]

The main virtual and actual political wager sites were woefully off in late 2003 with regard to the Democratic primaries -- they basically just recapitulated conventional wisdom.

I find these tallies similarly suspect. The odds making at the extremes is arbitrary and useless (Bush's 2% chance of carrying DC and Kerry's 5% chance of carrying Utah are totally meaningless, as an example).

The center of the odds seem pretty hinky, too -- New Mexico's electorate will be 5%+ more Latino than it was in 2000 -- there's no basis for a 58% likelihood it will go Bush when Gore and Bush split it evenly in 2000. Minnesota and Iowa are each much more likely pick ups than Michigan or Wisconsin (both of which have a larger hard core of liberal and minority voters). Oregon and Washington have large, tough, and experienced conservative get-out-the-vote machines, which are much more likely to pull off an upset than are the weak Maine and Pennsylvania organizations. The Bush confidence levels in Ohio and Missouri are far too high (particularly with the possibility of a Gephardt nomination), and too low in Florida (which Democratic strategists have basically written off.)

[xzins]

A swing state would be anything within 15 points of 50/50.

Let's hope that the President puts on a great campaign.

[bondjamesbond]

Multiplying each state's EV by the probability for each candidate and summing gives the following result

Bush 296 EVs
Kerry 242 EVs

Not that any of this stuff is relevant, but maintaining the probability data seems like it would yeild a more meaningful result.

[Cacique]

bttfl

[Only1choice____Freedom]

Just remember, this is a snapshot taken before Bush has even started to run and Kerry is barely known to most states.

When Bush starts spending money and people see Kerry's history. Bush's numbers will rise sharply.

If Kerry is hurting this bad already, Bush will wipe the walls with him. (He'll still never get in the corners.)