2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, February 23, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Dem Electoral Votes
Alabama	95.0	9	0
Alaska	94.0	3	0
Arizona	75.0	10	0
Arkansas	70.0	6	0
California	18.0	0	55
Colorado	80.0	9	0
Connecticut	20.0	0	7
Delaware	35.0	0	3
District of Columbia	2.0	0	3
Florida	68.0	27	0
Georgia	90.0	15	0
Hawaii	13.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	30.0	0	21
Indiana	87.0	11	0
Iowa	42.0	0	7
Kansas	91.5	6	0
Kentucky	88.0	8	0
Louisiana	80.0	9	0
Maine	39.0	0	4
Maryland	17.5	0	10
Massachusetts	4.0	0	12
Michigan	47.0	0	17
Minnesota	41.0	0	10
Mississippi	94.0	6	0
Missouri	65.0	11	0
Montana	91.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	65.0	5	0
New Hampshire	58.0	4	0
New Jersey	16.0	0	15
New Mexico	58.0	5	0
New York	15.0	0	31
North Carolina	85.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	65.0	20	0
Oklahoma	93.0	7	0
Oregon	39.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	49.0	0	21
Rhode Island	5.0	0	4
South Carolina	87.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	85.0	11	0
Texas	93.0	34	0
Utah	95.0	5	0
Vermont	7.0	0	3
Virginia	85.0	13	0
Washington	35.0	0	11
West Virginia	47.0	0	5
Wisconsin	49.0	0	10
Wyoming	95.0	3	0
Totals		278	260

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 278 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate would receive 260 Electoral Votes.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[Dog Gone]

I guess the reason why Bush has a 2% chance of winning DC is because you can't be positive how people on crack will vote.

[PetroniDE]

Do this calculation.

For each state, take the EV times the percentage chance of winning. Example. Bush has 85% chance to win State X with 10 EV. Bush gets 8.5, Kerry gets 1.5.

I realize each state (except ME/NE) is winner-take-all. This method gives an overall likely EV count that will fluctuate a little, since Bush will win some states projected <50% and will lose some state projected >50%.

[bmwcyle]

Don't forget the lead they have found in the drinking water.

[Momaw Nadon]

Ping!

[GiveEmDubya]

If Bush, or any Republican, ever won DC, I would fully expect to see 4 men on horses in the sky.

[11th_VA]

Bush has gone from 355 ECVs to 278 in a month. Hope he's hit the bottom...

[NautiNurse]

It's turned into a squeaker since the Jan 21 projections.

Florida at 68% with 27 EV is a nail biter again.

[Numbers Guy]

The only changes from 2000 are New Mexico going for Bush and West Virginia going for the Dem (5 votes each way). Bush's electoral vote total is higher than in 2000 due to the shift of Congressional seats toward the Sun Belt, reflected in the last census.

Lowest probability states for Bush currently in his column:

New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) and New Mexico (5), both at 58%. If he lost both and the rest went the same as predicted, it's a 269-269 tie (though states' House delegations vote based on one vote per delegation and Bush would win that).

After that we have Missouri (11) 65%, Nevada (4) 65%, Ohio (20) 65%, Florida (27) 68%.

Methinks the Dems make a huge push in Missouri and Ohio, either one of those could decide the race if it's close.

[So Cal Rocket]

Changes from last week's forecast:

Bush loses Michigan (-17 electoral votes)
Bush loses Pennsylvania (-21 electoral votes)
Bush loses West Virginia (-5 electoral votes)

[11th_VA]

Assume he loses NH as well, and squeeks by with 274 votes, but with two FEWER states than he won in 2000 (WV & NH). Man, the DU would go crazy, riots in the streets, I think that's gonna happen if Bush wins anyway...

[ScaniaBoy]

Another, quicker way to see that Bush's electoral votes are holding up nicely (at this v early stage) is the fact that in 6 states totalling 70 electoral votes Bush needs a swing of less than 10% to win,whereas he has such a slender lead in only two states (NH and New Mexico) totalling 8 electoral votes.

ScaniaBoy

[GiveEmDubya]

It looks like all but 1 of the close (within about 5 points) percentages are blue states. Not a bad sign.

Honestly, I think Kerry has pretty much topped out. To me, he is less electable than Gore and not even Gore could manage an Electoral College majority.

[William McKinley]

No, the reason Bush has a 2% chance of winning DC is because you can't be positive how people on crack participating in a futures market simulation will bet.

[Momaw Nadon]

Do this calculation. For each state, take the EV times the percentage chance of winning.

This method gives an overall likely EV count

According to this calculation, I get 55.42% X 538 = 298.14 Bush Electoral Votes.

[GiveEmDubya]

Then it's probably more accurate since I do not see Bush winning Michigan or Pennsylvania at this point anyway. If we had even a shot at winning either one of them, I'd say Pennsylvania but it will probably go Dem.

WV, I call it a toss-up.

[MagnusMaximus1]

Bush loses Ohio and/or Missouri:
IF not on the issue on Jobs, Jobs, Jobs,
then, probably,
on the issues of God, guns, gays and abortion (ie. IF Dubya does not move right enough on these).

[chimera]

This race is going to go down to the wire, as I expected all along, and that will be because of economic issues. Bush is about out of time on that. And sending Mankiw and Snow out to shoot their mouths off and shoot themselves in the foot won't help things. The memory of 9/11 will be long gone from the (somewhat vacuous) minds of most of the electorate. Those who were predicting a blowout for Bush only a few weeks ago might as well have been on crack. Look for OH or MO to be the FL of this election. And keep an eye on vote fraud elsewhere. The Rats will do ANYTHING to beat Bush this time around.

[So Cal Rocket]

Ohio and Missouri will indeed be the battleground states.

This means the Dems will put together a Kerry/Gephardt ticket.

[The Wizard]

my guess is GWB wins big time

[jpl]

I think there's a strong possibility that these numbers we see here could end up being the actual numbers in the election. Bush can most definitely win, but anyone who stills entertains notions of a landslide is simply deluding himself.

[wjcsux]

Don't count on GWB taking NM! Everyone who has lived in this state since Don Juan Onate always votes RAT!

[MagnusMaximus1]

I agree, though Edwards, with anyone-for-VP, would do even better against Bush - especially since Edwards does not have such a "flip/flop on the issues" record as Kerry does.

However, a Kerry/Gephardt ticket may squeek by - on the economic issues, especially.

P.S. IMHO, Florida is still in play for the Dems. After, certain senile, idiot voters in Palm Beach County won't have Buchanan to vote for again. ;-)

[chimera]

Class warfare specialist Gephardt would about sew up the job losses issue for the Rats, and probably delivery MO for the Rats. I don't see how Bush could counter that loss. Bush is also going to have a tough time with NV because of Yucca Mountain. The Rats will demagogue him to death on it. Partisan warrior Harry Reid is already sharpening his knives for that one. Bush probably has to pick off MN and NM to counter that. NM is problematic because of Richardson, who will make the vote fraud of 2000 there look like child's play. Others have talked about Minnesota. All I can say to that is, Mondull over Reagan in '84, and Jesse V. just a few years ago. Kerry has to have the advantage.

Sorry to seem pessimistic, but I think we have to run like we're behind. Thinking it's going to be a blowout for Bush is the surest way to lose. We tried that in the lead-up to '92 and it backfired big time.

[SamAdams76]

I went ahead and did this. For example, in Texas, where there are 34 EV and Bush is assigned a 93% of winning, he gets only 31.62 EV assigned to him. Conversely, in Kerry states, Bush gets a portion of those EV. For example, in California, where Bush is only assigned an 18% chance of winning, he gets 9.9 of the 55 EV in that state.

So...drum roll please, here are the projected results:

BUSH - 307.075 EV
KERRY - 230.925 EV

[Shermy]

And sending Mankiw and Snow out to shoot their mouths off and shoot themselves in the foot won't help things.

Mankiw merely had the lack of tact to tell the truth about what the Bush policy is.

[Plutarch]

Pennsylvania 49.0 (chance of Bush winning) 21 Electoral Votes

All the more reason to pick Rick Santorum as V.P. Those are 21 votes the Dems would find it almost impossible to make up. Having a Northeasterner and a Catholic might help in other battleground states (e.g. NH, OH, MI, NJ, WV)

Bush would probably still earn Wyoming's 3 votes with Cheney relegated to State, Defense or Chief of Staff.

[zbigreddogz]

Bush loses West Virginia? With gun grabbing Kerry as his opponent? I don't think so.

He might lose there to Edwards or a southern Dem, maybe, but I don't think the folk from WV are gonna vote for a Massachusets gun grabbing liberal.

They didn't go for Gore, and given that, I don't see how they can go for Kerry.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Still significant advantage Bush.

In Kerry's closest states he's at:

PA 51%
WI 51
WV 53
MI 53
IA 58
MN 59
ME 61
OR 61
WA 65

Meanwhile in Bush's closest states, the President is up:

NH 58%
NM 58
MO 65
NV 65
OH 65
FL 68

And Bush has the EC lead.

[rotstan]

Everyone should take a close look at the John Kerry contract - if ever there was a bubble stock / contract, this is it. Can't wait for the collapse - too bad we can't short him!!

[HostileTerritory]

Bush loses Michigan (-17 electoral votes)
Bush loses Pennsylvania (-21 electoral votes)

Well, those aren't changes from last week, those are optimistic predictions that were never likely to come to pass. Things may still swing that way, but I doubt it.

[Momaw Nadon]

John Kerry to be 2004 Democratic Presidential Nominee

[Momaw Nadon]

George W Bush is re-elected as United States President.

[raloxk]

I am tired of people thinking that Gephart can deliver MO just because he lives there. He NEVER ran a statewide race.

Additionally, if he had such drawing power with unions, why did he come in 4th in IA????

[raloxk]

no Mankiw is an idiot because he doesnt know the difference between a faculty launge at a university and the real political world

[inquest]

Interesting chart. They had Kerry down below what appears to be 5% then up over 90%. It might call into question the abiltities of this website to come up with good numbers. Of course, a 5% chance still means there's a chance, which means that fortunes can change quickly, but too many more graphs like that would have to seriously make one wonder as to their methodology.

[olde north church]

"Man, the DU would go crazy, riots in the streets, I think that's gonna happen if Bush wins anyway..."
Riots in the streets? They don't even follow up on their promises to leave the country. Riots in the streets? 100, 000 mimes pretending to walk against the wind?
Well, if there are riots in the street, just make sure your ammo locker is well stocked.

[Tennessean4Bush]

Ohio at 65% for Bush is a stretch if recent reports of that being a battleground state are accurate

[inquest]

65% is still pretty "battlegroundish". If you were told there's only a 65% chance you'll keep your job, I think you might start getting a little concerned.

[Chris Talk]

This projection just says that Bush will win exactly the states that he did in 2000... and no more... except that you have him losing in West Va and winning in New Mex, which exactly cancel each other because each has 5 votes.

Thus Bush is up only by the 7 votes caused by the census re-districting.

[longtermmemmory]

It depends on the voter fraud factor. This time it will not be 10% it will be 25%. With the e-machines and no paper trail its a dead cert.

[buckalfa]

In WV you have to consider Bush a definite underdog
simply because of lack of job growth and access to
affordable health care. The Dem's also have a two to one
edge in voter registration. Byrd and Rockefeller still
can turn out the vote. Fortunately for GWB, these
senate icons pretty much sat out the 2000 election.
Kerry will pull 55% in the Mountain State in 2004.

[supercat]

According to this calculation, I get 55.42% X 538 = 298.14 Bush Electoral Votes. Mee too.

Alabama	95%	8.6	0.4
Alaska	94%	2.8	0.2
Arizona	75%	7.5	2.5
Arkansas	70%	4.2	1.8
California	18%	9.9	45.1
Colorado	80%	7.2	1.8
Connecticut	20%	1.4	5.6
Delaware	35%	1.0	2.0
District of Columbia	2%	0.1	2.9
Florida	68%	18.4	8.6
Georgia	90%	13.5	1.5
Hawaii	13%	0.5	3.5
Idaho	95%	3.8	0.2
Illinois	30%	6.3	14.7
Indiana	87%	9.6	1.4
Iowa	42%	2.9	4.1
Kansas	92%	5.5	0.5
SUBTOTAL		103.2	96.8

Kentucky	88%	7.0	1.0
Louisiana	80%	7.2	1.8
Maine	39%	1.6	2.4
Maryland	18%	1.8	8.3
Massachusetts	4%	0.5	11.5
Michigan	47%	8.0	9.0
Minnesota	41%	4.1	5.9
Mississippi	94%	5.6	0.4
Missouri	65%	7.2	3.8
Montana	91%	2.7	0.3
Nebraska	95%	4.8	0.3
Nevada	65%	3.3	1.8
New Hampshire	58%	2.3	1.7
New Jersey	16%	2.4	12.6
New Mexico	58%	2.9	2.1
New York	15%	4.7	26.4
North Carolina	85%	12.8	2.3
SUBTOTAL		78.7	91.3

North Dakota	95%	2.8	0.2
Ohio	65%	13.0	7.0
Oklahoma	93%	6.5	0.5
Oregon	39%	2.7	4.3
Pennsylvania	49%	10.3	10.7
Rhode Island	5%	0.2	3.8
South Carolina	87%	7.0	1.0
South Dakota	95%	2.8	0.2
Tennessee	85%	9.4	1.6
Texas	93%	31.6	2.4
Utah	95%	4.8	0.3
Vermont	7%	0.2	2.8
Virginia	85%	11.1	2.0
Washington	35%	3.8	7.2
West Virginia	47%	2.3	2.7
Wisconsin	49%	4.9	5.1
Wyoming	95%	2.8	0.2
SUBTOTAL		116.3	51.7

FINAL TOTALS:

BUSH 298.1

KERRY 239.9

[supercat]

So...drum roll please, here are the projected results: BUSH - 307.075 EV KERRY - 230.925 EV

Hmmm... I got different results [see above]. Though there is an important factor not considered in these numbers: what is the likelihood that a state will vote for a particular candidate if it matters?

It's possible that one or other candidate will self-destruct so badly as to give the other a landslide. That is probably the only way that certain states will ever go for the other candidate.

BTW, I tried adjusting the formula that divvies up Electoral votes based upon winning likelihood. The proportion of votes given to a candidate is a³/(a³+b³), where "a" is the probability of that candidate winning and "b" is the probability of the opponent winning. This if a candidate has a 55% winning edge, he'll get most of the electoral votes but the oponent will get a few. If a candidate has an 80% winning edge, he'll get almost all of the votes. Here's that table:

Alabama	95%	100%	9.0	0.0
Alaska	94%	100%	3.0	0.0
Arizona	75%	96%	9.6	0.4
Arkansas	70%	93%	5.6	0.4
California	18%	1%	0.6	54.4
Colorado	80%	98%	8.9	0.1
Connecticut	20%	2%	0.1	6.9
Delaware	35%	14%	0.4	2.6
District of Columbia	2%	0%	0.0	3.0
Florida	68%	91%	24.5	2.5
Georgia	90%	100%	15.0	0.0
Hawaii	13%	0%	0.0	4.0
Idaho	95%	100%	4.0	0.0
Illinois	30%	7%	1.5	19.5
Indiana	87%	100%	11.0	0.0
Iowa	42%	28%	1.9	5.1
Kansas	92%	100%	6.0	0.0
SUBTOTAL			101.0	99.0

Kentucky	88%	100%	8.0	0.0
Louisiana	80%	98%	8.9	0.1
Maine	39%	21%	0.8	3.2
Maryland	18%	1%	0.1	9.9
Massachusetts	4%	0%	0.0	12.0
Michigan	47%	41%	7.0	10.0
Minnesota	41%	25%	2.5	7.5
Mississippi	94%	100%	6.0	0.0
Missouri	65%	86%	9.5	1.5
Montana	91%	100%	3.0	0.0
Nebraska	95%	100%	5.0	0.0
Nevada	65%	86%	4.3	0.7
New Hampshire	58%	72%	2.9	1.1
New Jersey	16%	1%	0.1	14.9
New Mexico	58%	72%	3.6	1.4
New York	15%	1%	0.2	30.8
North Carolina	85%	99%	14.9	0.1
SUBTOTAL			76.8	93.2

North Dakota	95%	100%	3.0	0.0
Ohio	65%	86%	17.3	2.7
Oklahoma	93%	100%	7.0	0.0
Oregon	39%	21%	1.5	5.5
Pennsylvania	49%	47%	9.9	11.1
Rhode Island	5%	0%	0.0	4.0
South Carolina	87%	100%	8.0	0.0
South Dakota	95%	100%	3.0	0.0
Tennessee	85%	99%	10.9	0.1
Texas	93%	100%	34.0	0.0
Utah	95%	100%	5.0	0.0
Vermont	7%	0%	0.0	3.0
Virginia	85%	99%	12.9	0.1
Washington	35%	14%	1.5	9.5
West Virginia	47%	41%	2.1	2.9
Wisconsin	49%	47%	4.7	5.3
Wyoming	95%	100%	3.0	0.0
SUBTOTAL			123.7	44.3

FINAL TOTALS:

BUSH 301.5

KERRY 236.5

[Recovering_Democrat]

Much closer in recent days, isn't it? :(