Iranian Alert -- March 19, 2004 [EST]-- IRAN LIVE THREAD -- Americans for Regime Change in Iran

The US media almost entirely ignores news regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran. As Tony Snow of the Fox News Network has put it, “this is probably the most under-reported news story of the year.” But most American’s are unaware that the Islamic Republic of Iran is NOT supported by the masses of Iranians today. Modern Iranians are among the most pro-American in the Middle East.

There is a popular revolt against the Iranian regime brewing in Iran today. Starting June 10th of this year, Iranians have begun taking to the streets to express their desire for a regime change. Most want to replace the regime with a secular democracy. Many even want the US to over throw their government.

The regime is working hard to keep the news about the protest movement in Iran from being reported. Unfortunately, the regime has successfully prohibited western news reporters from covering the demonstrations. The voices of discontent within Iran are sometime murdered, more often imprisoned. Still the people continue to take to the streets to demonstrate against the regime.

In support of this revolt, Iranians in America have been broadcasting news stories by satellite into Iran. This 21st century news link has greatly encouraged these protests. The regime has been attempting to jam the signals, and locate the satellite dishes. Still the people violate the law and listen to these broadcasts. Iranians also use the Internet and the regime attempts to block their access to news against the regime. In spite of this, many Iranians inside of Iran read these posts daily to keep informed of the events in their own country.

This daily thread contains nearly all of the English news reports on Iran. It is thorough. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a nation. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary. The news stories and commentary will from time to time include material from the regime itself. But if you read the post you will discover for yourself, the real story of what is occurring in Iran and its effects on the war on terror.

I am not of Iranian heritage. I am an American committed to supporting the efforts of those in Iran seeking to replace their government with a secular democracy. I am in contact with leaders of the Iranian community here in the United States and in Iran itself.

If you read the daily posts you will gain a better understanding of the US war on terrorism, the Middle East and why we need to support a change of regime in Iran. Feel free to ask your questions and post news stories you discover in the weeks to come.

If all goes well Iran will be free soon and I am convinced become a major ally in the war on terrorism. The regime will fall. Iran will be free. It is just a matter of time.

Iran must be monitored, MPs warn

Mar 19 2004

Iran needs to monitored with "continued vigilance" to ensure it honours a commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, MPs have warned.

The Commons Foreign Affairs Committee said there is "no certainty" an agreement struck by Foreign Secretary Jack Straw and his French and German counterparts with the Tehran regime would achieve its objectives.

Following reports that Iran was continuing to develop sophisticated centrifuges needed to produce weapons-grade uranium, the committee said Tehran appeared to be "guilty either of careless inefficiency or deliberate deceit".

The European Union "troika" of Mr Straw, French foreign minister Dominic de Villepin and Germany's Joschka Fischer, won an assurance from Iran that it would voluntarily suspend all uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities, after visiting Tehran in October.

The Iranians also agreed to sign up to a new protocol allowing the International Atomic Energy Authority - the United Nations nuclear watchdog - increased access to inspect its nuclear facilities.

However, the committee warned that the limits of the agreement are likely to be "thoroughly tested" by the Iranians.

"Welcome though the agreement with Iran on its nuclear activities is, there can as yet be no certainty that it will achieve its objectives," it said.

"Scrupulous enforcement by the IAEA will be necessary, backed up by continued resolve on the part of the EU troika and other parties."

http://icsouthlondon.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/nationalnews/tm_objectid=14067722&method=full&siteid=50100&headline=iran-must-be-monitored--mps-warn-name_page.html

Factional Infighting in Iran Could Hamper Conservatives' Political Agenda in Parliament

March 18, 2004
EurasiaNet
Ardeshir Moaveni

The leaders of Iran’s conservatives, who have taken control of parliament, are developing a restrained agenda that they hope will secure the backing of a generally skeptical population. However, some Iranian political analysts believe that several major obstacles, including ideological differences among factions, could derail the conservatives’ plans.

Conservatives will enjoy a dominant majority when the Islamic republic’s 7th legislature convenes in late May. At the same time, a majority of Iranians continue to view conservative political leaders unfavorably, concerned that they seek to re-impose strict Islamic protocols. According to some estimates, only about 15 percent of the Iranian electorate actively backs conservative parties. To win the parliamentary election, conservatives relied heavily on decisions by the hardliner-controlled Guardian Council, which disqualified roughly 2,500 parliamentary candidates and effectively hindered the reformists’ ability to mount a viable campaign. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Conservatives also benefited from widespread apathy among erstwhile reform supporters.

Tacitly acknowledging that their political survival depends on not alienating the population further, several conservative leaders have already pledged not to roll back the loosening of social restrictions that occurred in recent years. They are also laying the groundwork for a massive consumer-sector spending spree, which they hope will boost their popularity ratings by offering quick-fix remedies for the country’s structural economic problems. To buy time for their economic plan to work, many conservatives are also hoping to improve the country’s tense relationship with the United States.

Shortly after the parliamentary election, Golamali Haddad-Adel – who is related to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and who is viewed as a leading candidate to become the next parliament speaker – indicated that a conservative-dominated legislature would keep existing social policy intact. "There will not be a return to the past," he said. Later, on March 6, Haddad-Adel touched upon the issue of women’s rights, saying; "For women, it is not against the law if they choose not to wear a hejab [traditional head covering] while they are traveling outside the country."

While these conservatives are promising no radical shifts in the social sphere, they are planning major changes in the economic sector. Observers in Tehran suggest the conservatives are attempting to develop an economic program that fuses Keynesian economic practices with the tightly controlled Chinese model of economic and political development.

Overcoming the country’s deep economic problems is widely viewed as a major political challenge for conservatives. Some projections suggest that Iran will have to create up to 1 million jobs per year to keep pace with the country’s burgeoning population. At present, the country is creating only about 300,000 jobs per year. The vast majority of the country’s population is under age 30.

In an attempt to relieve mounting popular frustration, conservatives will encourage a massive influx of consumer goods. The next legislature is thus expected to give serious consideration to lowering or eliminating tariffs on imports, and the expansion credits to merchants. Concurrently, in an effort to alleviate unemployment, conservatives will promote a massive civic-sector construction boom, including highways, housing projects, parks and shopping malls. Already, the conservative-controlled city council in Tehran is developing a tentative blueprint to remake the cityscape. The overall cost of the government programs could stretch into the billions of dollars.

To pay for the government spending spree, conservatives are prepared to tap into the country’s considerable foreign currency reserves. However, in recent weeks they have struggled with their reformist rivals over control of a special fund containing an estimated $10 billion, derived from Iran’s windfall oil sales profits. On March 10, conservative leaders cautioned the lame-duck reformist-dominated legislature against taking steps that would deplete the fund. The lame-duck legislature has nevertheless persisted in its efforts to allocate a significant amount of the special fund, which was established in 2000 by President Mohammad Khatami’s reformist government. The executive branch is the last bastion of reformist power.

On March 15, the Guardian Council, which, in addition to vetting candidates for political office, also wields veto power over parliamentary legislation, rejected an attempt by reformists to utilize $6.5 billion for reformist-backed construction and development programs, and to pay off some of the country’s foreign debt. The next day, however, the Expediency Council, Iran’s supreme oversight body, approved a $5 billion allocation to the reformist-controlled government.

Conservatives accuse the reformists of trying to drain the special fund before presidential elections are held in 2005. Conservatives view their ability to control the fund as central to achieving their aim of regaining control over the executive branch in the presidential election.

Even if conservatives are left with sufficient funds to implement their economic agenda, some political observers believe they could become bogged down by infighting. Already there is evidence of tension between conservatives who are believers in the Keynesian methods and hardliners who favor strict adherence to the Chinese authoritarian model. Some influential ultra-conservatives reportedly are concerned that their legitimacy would be damaged if they are seen to embrace a liberal economic position, or endorse a foreign policy that seeks detente with the United States.

The question of promoting a rapprochement with the United States is proving contentious. The majority of conservatives feel that Washington must be engaged in order to prevent any possible US attempt to disrupt their domestic economic plans, or endanger Iranian national security. But extreme rightists, a highly influential constituency within the conservative bloc, have already vowed to oppose any attempt to seek a normalization of relations with the United States.

Editor’s Note: Ardeshir Moaveni is a freelance journalist specializing in Iranian politics.

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav031804a.shtml

The best of the bad boys

by Micah D. Halpern
The JewsWeek

Saddam Hussein used to be the uncontested Bad Boy of the Middle East. Now Syria and Iran have signed an agreement for defense and security.

For years the incontestable Bad Boy was Saddam Hussein, all the others simply paled by comparison.

The role of the leader of the Bad Boys is one of the most powerful and consequently, essential positions in the Mid East. He is revered by the street in almost every Arab country, even the Good Boy countries and is elevated to statuesque heights in the eyes of the public. His challenge to the West - especially the United States, is accepted and expected. He moves and maneuvers and manipulates the media in order to attack the West and to incite anti-Western spirit within all the countries of the region.

This new Iranian-Syrian nexus is a very important development for the region. And it is especially important for Israel and the United States.

Intelligence analysts for both countries will be watching this new alliance and not-so-new friendship very carefully over these next few months. It is clear to all the powers that be that the "foreign threats" Assad was referring to was just a euphemism for Israel and the U.S.

All this comes at the same time that Iran is training a group of ex-pat Libyans to return to Tripoli and, once inside, to perpetrate as many terror attacks as possible within their home country.

The Iranian intention is to exert pressure on Libya's leader, Gadhafi, who has invited U.S. and international inspectors into his country to record and track his unconventional weapons arsenal and capability. Iran hopes to "convince" Gadhafi not to hand over details of the joint weapons programs that Libya has been collecting with the help of Iran and North Korea.

And as this is happening, the United States is preparing to implement the Syrian Accountability Act that demands U.S. sanctions against Syria for supporting terror.

The international intelligence community has little doubt that almost all non-al Qaida acts of terror perpetrated around the world today are backed by Syria or by Iran. Actually, there are many in the world of intel who say that there is a deep alliance between the al Qaida world and Iran and Syria.

In fact, just days after the Syrian/Iranian pact announcement Israeli Chief of Staff Moshe Yaalon accused Syria and Iran of being the chief sponsors and advocates of terror in Israel. Indeed, many believe that the vacuum created by the dethronement of Saddam and the U.S. invasion of Iraq was quickly, quietly, ruthlessly, filled by Iran and Syria.

I'm not sure if Bashar Assad of Syria has what it takes to be the leader of the Bad Boys of the Middle East. I know that if not for Saddam, his father could and would have had that distinction. I also know that Muammar Gadhafi has what it takes. But, for now at least, Gadhafi has opted out of the race, predicting that he will get further by cooperating with the West.

That leaves Iran - a society run by the Ayatollahs. These religious leaders are not Arabs, they are Shiite Muslims. My hope/thinking is that resentment and hatred against them from the greater Arab and Muslim worlds will deny them the opportunity of assuming leadership of the Bad Boys.

If that should happen, if Syria is incapable and Iran is isolated, it paves the way for possible reforms within the Arab Middle East. And if that happens, then perhaps, perhaps, the world will see a little less terror. But until then, Syrian and Iran, each country alone and the two together, are to be considered armed and even more dangerous.

http://www.jewsweek.com/bin/en.jsp?enPage=BlankPage&enDisplay=view&enDispWhat=object&enDispWho=Article%5El1096&enZone=Opinions&enVersion=0&

Empress's love of Iran, the Shah everlasting

By Kevin Chaffee
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Mar 19 2004

PERSONALITY: The beauty and serenity that once made Her Imperial Majesty Farah Pahlavi, Shahbanou (Empress) of Iran a magazine cover favorite has hardly changed in the 25 years since she and her husband, Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, were swept from power by an Islamic revolution that changed their ancient land and, as it turned out, the world as well.

THE SCENE: Wearing a tailored pantsuit with gold button earrings of Persian motif, her golden brown hair perfectly coifed, the elegant Shahbanou, 65, gracefully descends onto a settee to discuss her recently published autobiography, "An Enduring Love: My Life With the Shah," in the ultramodern living room of her substantial — though hardly palatial — home in Potomac, where she moved two years ago to be closer to her eldest son, Prince Reza Pahlavi, his wife, Yasmine, and their three daughters.

Q: What kind of a man was the Shah?
A: He loved his country and his people and wanted to bring progress and development to Iran, which he did. He was civilized, kind, just and patient and never showed any temper. He was a good father to his children, although unfortunately he didn't have as much time to spend with them as he would have liked. He was also a loving husband, and I am so grateful that he allowed me, as a woman, and as his wife, to [participate] in so many activities in that period. As time passes, I have even more admiration for him.

Q: It must have been very difficult to go from your student life in Paris to the royal court, where you were the center of attention.
A: Like any woman entering a new family, I had to be very careful ... I'm not a person who likes intrigue. I put myself above it.

http://washingtontimes.com/entertainment/20040318-083536-6272r.htm

This is just a movie review, but I thought I'd share it for the commentary/ending...

Chronicling Iran

Iranian greats Jafar Panahi and Abbas Kiarostami team up for another powerful film

By JAMES DIGIOVANNA

Crimson Gold. Directed by Jafar Panahi. Starring Hossain Emadeddin, Kamyar Sheisi, Azita Rayeji and Shahram Vaziri.

Director Jafar Panahi and writer Abbas Kiarostami last teamed up on The White Balloon, which is a serious contender for best movie ever made. The tale, told in real time, of a young girl sent to the store to buy a goldfish, is so incredibly tense that I once witnessed a grizzly, 300-pound, punk-rock musician leap from his chair and cry at the screen, "Won't somebody help that little girl!"

After The White Balloon, Panahi made the equally excellent and equally little-girl-centered The Mirror, and then changed directions with The Circle, a film about the taboo subject of adult women.

Which is to say, Panahi works in Iran. Iranian films in the '90s were known for focusing on the lives of children. Besides The White Balloon and The Mirror, films like The Water Jar, A Time for Drunken Horses and The Children of Heaven employed casts of children, in part, because Iranian censorship rules made it very difficult to film adults of different sexes in the same scene.

Artists like Panahi and Kiarostami, though, couldn't live with this rule, and started making grown-up movies. As a result, both have had trouble with censors, and Panahi's The Circle was banned in Iran. Their more recent films are therefore more overtly political, but they don't translate as well, since the children's stories had to rely on universal themes while the adult films are more about specifically Iranian problems.

Crimson Gold tries to split the difference by using an emotive center to talk about social problems. In many ways, it seems like a Persian take on a French new wave take on an American film noir, but it's not just another Irano-Franco-American noir-wave existential crime thriller. Instead, it's the story of how class differences weigh upon the soul of an impoverished war hero named Hussein.

The film opens with a robbery gone wrong that results in the suicide of one of the criminals. That criminal turns out to be Hussein, and the rest of the film details how he came to think it would be a good idea to bust up a jewelry store and then stick a gun to his head and decorate the walls with his brains.

Hussein is a delivery man who rides his motorcycles through the streets of Tehran, bringing the shining gift of pizza to the Persian masses. In the course of this job, Hussein is constantly reminded of his social status. At one point, he is denied entry to a fancy jewelry store (which he'll later return to for the brain-painting); on another occasion, he must sit and wait for hours while the police raid a party. Later, he is invited into the house of a wealthy roué, where the opulence in which the decadent man lives only makes Hussein more strongly feel his own poverty.

Husky Hussein greets all of these injustices with silent brooding, and by the latter half of the film, you can clearly see that he's on the verge of going totally Travis Bickle. (Actually, there's a lot of Taxi Driver in this film, including an awesome jazz-trumpet soundtrack by Peyman Yazdanian, who you probably remember best from his work Kaze no jutan or Gahi be aseman negah kon. Or not.)

Sadly, instead of getting his angst out by loving Jodie Foster, Hussein just swallows it and gets more and more morose. Panahi uses Hussein's blank silence as the focal point around which contemporary Tehran can reveal itself.

Perhaps most telling is the scene in which Hussein must wait outside an apartment building while the cops arrest party-goers. Hussein is detained for no reason and becomes a spectator to a quintessentially Iranian scene. The police know that there's a party going on, but instead of raiding the building, they wait at the door and arrest the revelers, one by one, as they leave. It shows the small indignations and vague horror of a country in which "party" is no longer allowed to be used as a verb.

As he waits for the raid to finish, Hussein asks a young soldier if he's ever had any fun. In a heavy-handed moment, the soldier admits that he doesn't know what the word "fun" means.

There are a number of bits (like that one) that hit too hard, but on the whole, the film retains a reasonable degree of subtlety, thanks in large part to cinematographer Hossein Djafarian, who keeps things dark and tight with lots of evil-looking shadows and careful framing.

The final and opening sequence is shot in a nearly dark room with the camera centered upon a doorway opening into the morning light. During the course of the scenes, the camera zooms slowly in on the open door, which is then barred shut. In some ways, this is an overly obvious metaphor, both for Hussein's increasingly obsessive attitude about his social class and for Panahi's take on Iranian society. Either way, the film retains a good deal of the power, if not the originality, of Panahi's earlier work, while pointing out that the limits under which Iranian filmmakers have worked for so long have now reached a boiling point that verges on violence.

Don't worry, though: Word on the grapevine is that a revolution is scheduled for a fall release, and it's sure to feature a cast of millions. Let's hope Panahi is there with his camera when the clerical government heads into its third act; I can't wait to see the kind of work he'll do when he doesn't have two mullahs and an ayatollah trying to drape a veil over his lens.

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