Absence of Evidence is Not Evidence of Absence

US News and World Report ^ | 3/24/04 | Michael Barone

[XHogPilot]

The National Interest
Absence of Evidence is Not Evidence of Absence

"There’s absolutely no evidence that Iraq was supporting al Qaeda," said former White House counterrorism official Richard Clarke to Lesley Stahl on 60 Minutes. It’s a statement often made by Democrats and critics of the Bush administration.

The problem is it’s flat out wrong. As CIA Director George Tenet told the Senate Intelligence Committee in October 2002, "We have credible reporting that al Qaeda leaders sought contacts in Iraq who could help them acquire WMD capabilities. The reporting also stated that Iraq has provided training to al Qaeda members in the areas of poisons and gases and making conventional bombs." The Weekly Standard’s Stephen Hayes has documented copious evidence of ties between al Qaeda and Iraq.

Such evidence is not conclusive. But it is evidence. Clarke and others who state with certainty that we know of no ties between al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein’s regime are simply wrong. On the basis of the evidence currently available, we cannot know for sure that there was no connection between al Qaeda and Iraq or that Saddam was not connected in some way to the September 11 attacks. And we probably never will know those things for certain.

Policymakers have to make decisions on the basis of incomplete and sometimes fragmentary evidence. When confronted with evidence of ties between al Qaeda and Iraq, those who say there is no evidence fall back on the argument that the evidence is not conclusive. And indeed it is not. But that is no reason not to have taken action against Saddam.

Opponents of that action seem to assume that it should not have been taken unless there was evidence beyond a reasonable doubt. But evil regimes are not entitled to a presumption of innocence. The presumption of the moral equality of individuals within a society does not mean that there should be a moral presumption of the moral equality of regimes within the world. Regimes have history, and few regimes have a history of brutality and aggression as stark as that of Saddam. There is no reason to assume that there were no ties between al Qaeda and Saddam just because the evidence of such ties was inconclusive. Absence of evidence, as Donald Rumsfeld has said, is not evidence of absence.

My own guess–and it is only that–is that there were ties between al Qaeda and Iraq and that Saddam aided and abetted September 11. I cannot prove that. But no one can prove the opposite either.

[XHogPilot]

"The presumption of the moral equality of individuals within a society does not mean that there should be a moral presumption of the moral equality of regimes within the world."

A good article centered on a key flaw of Humanism. There is no such thing as "moral equality"...

[Peach]

And wasn't the title of this article prairie's tagline for a while?

The evidence that AQ and Iraq had links is beyond dispute. Saddams sons published in their own state-run newspaper how they were working with AQ to defeat America.

[formercalifornian]

Saddams sons published in their own state-run newspaper how they were working with AQ to defeat America.

Now that's one I hadn't heard. What was the source for this, can you remember?

[Peach]

We monitored their newspapers and some reporters here reported on it. I don't remember but will go scroll through my Iraq file (which is huge).

[formercalifornian]

Thanks. I know it's not easy.

[Peach]

This isn't what I'm looking for, but is interesting nonetheless.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/946809/posts?page=1

[Peach]

Saddam's links to AQ. (One of hundreds of articles that link Saddam to AQ that I have).

I'm scrolling through some of them to see the mention about the newspapers. This isn't the one either, but I can tell you that it's been discussed on FNC at least a year ago, probably more. If I don't find it, it won't be
lack of trying, just lack of time to read all the articles to find that one or two sentences contained in them about the boy's newspaper.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/866105/posts

[Peach]

Here it is:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/944617/posts?page=2

[formercalifornian]

Well, now, this IS interesting. 1999 and UK papers are saying that Saddam promises sanctuary to Bin Laden if he should carry out threats against the West and need safety!. What better way to keep Bin Laden out of a rabbit hole in Iraq than to plug that hole first with a few missiles?

[Peach]

I sent you the specific link to the Weekly Standard article that mentions the boy's newspaper and reaching out to OBL.

Also, thought you might be interested in these links:

Monsoor Ijaz said that Clarke knew full well that Saddam and OBL were working hand in glove for years and challenged Clarke to appear on any television show to debate this matter. Practically called the guy a liar.

What Clarke would just as soon we forget:

Okay - here are just a FEW of the links between terrorism and AQ specifically and Iraq.

Read about what the press was saying in the 90's about the links between Iraq and AQ:http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/946809/posts?page=1

Growing evidence of AQ/Iraq link:http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/946997/posts

Saddam and Bin Laden vs. the World:http://www.guardian.co.uk/alqaida/story/0,12469,798270,00.html

Saddam link to bin Laden:http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/866105/posts

The Al Qaeda connections:http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/866105/posts

NYT - 1998 - OBL and Iraq agree to cooperate:http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/985906/posts

Document links AQ and Iraq:http://tennessean.com/nation-world/archives/03/06/34908297.shtml?Element_ID=34908297

Iraq and terrorism:http://www.nationalreview.com/robbins/robbins091903.asp

WSJ - Iraq and AQ: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/987129/posts

Iraq and Iran contact AQ: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/981055/posts

Proof Saddam worked with AQ: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=%2Fnews%2F2003%2F04%2F27%2Fwalq27.xml

Saddam's AQ Connection:http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/969032/posts

Terrorist killed in Iraq after refusing to train Al Qaeda terrorists:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2002/08/25/wnidal25.xml

Osama's Best Friend: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1007969/posts

Case Closed - OBL and Iraq agree to work together:http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/003/378fmxyz.asp

Terrorist behind 9/11 trained in Iraq:http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1039898/posts?page=154

The Clinton view of Iraq/AQ ties: http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/003/527uwabl.asp

Saddam's ties to terror: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1005579/posts

[Peach]

Did you get the link I sent you regarding Saddam's son and their mention of AQ in their state-run newspaper?

I know it could have easily been lost in the "other stuff" I sent you. LOL

[SpyGuy]

Absence of Evidence is Not Evidence of Absence

This maxim is equally applicable to the search for WMD in Iraq.

[formercalifornian]

Had to wade through all the preliminary stuff while my son banged away on the piano, but I did find it. Thanks! Very interesting stuff. Somehow, that never made it into the mainstream lib press for some reason. I wondered about the description of judge Gilbert S. Merritt as "a lifelong Democrat and a man of unimpeachable integrity." Seems like an oxymaroon.

[Peach]

LOL.

[Quicksilver]

Should I claim plagiarism? :p (see my tag)

[Quicksilver]

This maxim is equally applicable to the search for WMD in Iraq.

Yep. I changed my tag a week or so ago to ...

[knarf]

Thank you, and so many other Freepers, for maintaining subject files ... bump.

[GailA]

Some googling dug up these

losing bin laden

Losing bin laden

Gary Aldrich losing bin laden

The next is a 3 part VERY long series by the wash compost

Ghost Wars : The CIA and Osama bin Laden, 1997-1999 A Secret Hunt Unravels in Afghanistan

The CIA and Massoud. Legal Disputes Over Hunt Paralyzed Clinton's Aides

Flawed Ally Was Hunt's Best Hope

[Peach]

Thanks for those links. I'll add them to "the file."

[DarthMaulrulesok]

"Absence of Evidence is not Evidence of Absence" - how very true and it also applies to Saddam's WMD.