Iranian Alert -- April 8, 2004 [EST]-- IRAN LIVE THREAD -- "Americans for Regime Change in Iran"

The US media almost entirely ignores news regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran. As Tony Snow of the Fox News Network has put it, “this is probably the most under-reported news story of the year.” Most American’s are unaware that the Islamic Republic of Iran is NOT supported by the masses of Iranians today. Modern Iranians are among the most pro-American in the Middle East.

There is a popular revolt against the Iranian regime brewing in Iran today. I began these daily threads June 10th 2003. On that date Iranians once again began taking to the streets to express their desire for a regime change. Today in Iran, most want to replace the regime with a secular democracy.

The regime is working hard to keep the news about the protest movement in Iran from being reported. Unfortunately, the regime has successfully prohibited western news reporters from covering the demonstrations. The voices of discontent within Iran are sometime murdered, more often imprisoned. Still the people continue to take to the streets to demonstrate against the regime.

In support of this revolt, Iranians in America have been broadcasting news stories by satellite into Iran. This 21st century news link has greatly encouraged these protests. The regime has been attempting to jam the signals, and locate the satellite dishes. Still the people violate the law and listen to these broadcasts. Iranians also use the Internet and the regime attempts to block their access to news against the regime. In spite of this, many Iranians inside of Iran read these posts daily to keep informed of the events in their own country.

This daily thread contains nearly all of the English news reports on Iran. It is thorough. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a nation. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary. The news stories and commentary will from time to time include material from the regime itself. But if you read the post you will discover for yourself, the real story of what is occurring in Iran and its effects on the war on terror.

I am not of Iranian heritage. I am an American committed to supporting the efforts of those in Iran seeking to replace their government with a secular democracy. I am in contact with leaders of the Iranian community here in the United States and in Iran itself.

If you read the daily posts you will gain a better understanding of the US war on terrorism, the Middle East and why we need to support a change of regime in Iran. Feel free to ask your questions and post news stories you discover in the weeks to come.

If all goes well Iran will be free soon and I am convinced become a major ally in the war on terrorism. The regime will fall. Iran will be free. It is just a matter of time.

Learning from Sadr

April 08, 2004
National Review Online
Michael Rubin

Listen to the Iraqis.

As violence provoked by Muqtada al-Sadr's fringe Jaysh al-Mahdi militia enters its third day, Washington remains in a frenzy of misplaced panic. Senator Edward Kennedy (D., Mass.), in remarks rebroadcast throughout the Arab world on the al-Jazeera satellite television, declared "Iraq is George Bush's Vietnam and this country needs a new president." Senators Richard Lugar (R., Ind.) and Joseph Biden (D., Del.) raised the spectre of civil war in separate April 6 interviews. Speaking on the floor of the U.S. Senate on April 7, Robert Byrd (D., W.Va.) went further, calling on the United States to pull out of Iraq.

Allies and adversaries alike interpret such statements as weakness. For Arab liberals, they raise the spectre of American abandonment, an obsession brought on by our failure to support Iraqi freedom in 1991. For militant Islamists and potential Jihadist recruits, the senators' statements reinforce the notion that Americans will reward violence, just as did the Spanish electorate in the wake of the March 11 train bombings. While headlines may scream doom and gloom, more telling is the reaction of the Iraqi street. Muqtada al-Sadr's uprising and the fighting in Fallujah and Ramadi have put Iraq to the test. And Iraqis have passed with flying colors.

Take the news out of Najaf where Governing Council member Sayyid Muhammad Bahr al-Ulum, himself a Shia cleric, has said that Muqtada al-Sadr refuses to speak with representatives of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani's religious establishment: Muqtada's petulant behavior counters any suggestion that he and Iraq's religious establishment will unite in a common front. Indeed, on April 7, Sistani's office issued a statement calling for calm, pointedly refusing to endorse Muqtada. News from other cities is also positive. In Nasriyyah, a predominantly Shia town famous as the site of the rescue of PFC Jessica Lynch, leading local Shia cleric, Wael al-Rukadi, explained, "Triggering the violent incidents were people from the outside, to be exact, from Fallujah and the Western part of the country... A withdrawal of foreign troops from Iraq at this time would lead to an all-out civil war."

Muqtada al-Sadr is a desperate man. The youngest son of Grand Ayatollah Muhammad al-Sadr, Muqtada was never able to acquire the religious legitimacy of his father or brothers, murdered by Saddam Hussein in 1999. Nevertheless, Muqtada has remained fiercely ambitious and has sought to cash in on his family name. On October 10, 2003, he declared himself president of a parallel government, only to find that Iraqis wanted nothing to do with him. Muqtada al-Sadr did initially have some support in Sadr City, a sprawling slum on the outskirts of Baghdad named not after Muqtada, but after his father. However, Muqtada's support has hemorrhaged over the past several months as Shia politicians like Ibrahim Jaafari of the Dawa party and Abdul Aziz Hakim of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, make inroads. I visited Sadr City often between July 2003 and March 2004, walking through markets and along apartment blocks. Posters of Muqtada al-Sadr, once omnipresent, faded or disappeared, replaced by posters of late ayatollahs like Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim, killed in an August 29, 2003, car bomb. This week's violence appears to have less to do with Iraqi sentiment than with Muqtada al-Sadr's quest for power. Abu Muhammad Sadiq, a self-described leading figure in Muqtada's militia, told the Arabic daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat on April 6, 2004, that the goal of the movement was to give Muqtada "an opportunity to lead Iraq."

The reason for the Iraqi Shia community's aversion to Muqtada goes beyond his lackluster scholarship, to the very nature of his character: Iraqis see Muqtada as a murderer. On April 10, 2003, he ordered the murder of moderate cleric Majid al-Khoei, who was subsequently hacked to death in the Shrine of Imam Ali, one of the world's holiest Shia shrines. Muqtada later published a list of 192 Iraqi figures "to be killed." Several subsequently were.

Rather than see Muqtada as a grassroots leader, most Iraqis see him as a proxy of the Iranian government. Muqtada receives funding through Ayatollah Kazem al-Haeri, a close confidant of the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Khameini. Unlike many of Iraq's traditional clergy who believe that clerical rule in a secular world would by nature corrupt religion (as it has in Iran), Muqtada al-Sadr subscribes to Khameini's vision of clerical dictatorship.

Iraqis are not without complaint with regard to the American action. It has been more than a half-year since an Iraqi magistrate issued a warrant for Muqtada al-Sadr's arrest on charges stemming from the Khoei assassination. Contrary to off-the-cuff statements by some pundits, the magistrate was not a Coalition-appointee, but rather an ordinary, non-political judge with several years of service. Many Iraqi judges used the collapse of Saddam's regime to reinvigorate their defense of the law, no longer intimidated by Baath-party political commissars. Nevertheless, nervous hand-wringing in Washington prevented Coalition forces from taking any action. An April 7, 2004, open letter to Coalition Provisional Authority administrator L. Paul Bremer signed by 19 Iraqi intellectuals, both Sunni and Shia, lauded "the decision of the Coalition Forces to capture and remove destructive cells, which are enemies to law and order," but added, "It would have been preferable had these forces been captured before the recent events. This is the only way to deal with violent protests that bring harm to both our country and the establishment of democracy."

The path to democracy is not easy. A successful Iraq creates a crisis of legitimacy for remnants of Saddam's regime, as well as Iraq's decidedly undemocratic neighbors: Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, and the proxy groups they fund, equip, and train. But, if there is a lesson to Muqtada al-Sadr's rise and violent fall, it is not to ignore a challenge, or to cut-and-run, but to meet challenges head on in defense of freedom and democracy.

— Michael Rubin is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He spent 16 months in Iraq, most recently as a Coalition Provisional Authority governance adviser.

http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/rubin200404080818.asp

Asylum seeker sent back to Iran

April 08, 2004

AN IRANIAN would-be asylum seeker has been sent back to Iran, the Federal Government confirmed today.

The move was described as act of violence by the Uniting Church of Australia,

The Iranian man, who had been at South Australia's Baxter Detention Centre, was deported after he was found not to be a refugee.

The man arrived in Iran about 6pm (AEST) today, a spokesman for Immigration Minister Amanda Vanstone said.

President of the Uniting Church, Reverend Dr Dean Drayton, condemned the move, saying the man could face persecution, torture and death.

"That the Government would return people to a country where persecution and torture are a fact of life is an abuse of the power that has been vested in them," Dr Drayton said in a statement.

"It is time for the Government to take its responsibility to refugees seriously. This is not an act of service. It is an act of violence."

Refugee group Project SafeCom said a 23-year-old Iranian man went missing from the detention centre last night.

It was not known whether he was the man sent back to Iran.

Project SafeCom spokesperson Jack Smit said the group held fears for the man's safety because he had recently converted to Christianity.

"Under the terms of the cultural Sharia laws of Iran, membership of a non-Muslim faith is regarded as an extremely serious offence, classified as a heresy," Mr Smit said.

The Federal Government could not confirm the age of the deported Iranian man.

UnitingJustice director Reverend Elenie Poulos said the Iranian government would not ensure the protection of returned asylum seekers.

"Iran is not safe. It is clear that the Iranian government cannot guarantee their willingness or ability to offer effective protection to people who are persecuted in their own country," Reverend Poulos said.

"The Government's system of processing refugee claims is flawed. The Government should halt all deportations of asylum seekers until they can prove that they are not in need of protection."

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,9229921%255E1702,00.html

China willing to further overall cooperation with Iran: President Hu

chinaview.cn 2004-04-08 20:11:56

BEIJING, April 8 (Xinhuanet) -- China is willing to enhance exchange and cooperation with Iran in all aspects and to push the friendly cooperation ties, which was long-term stable and rich in content, to a new high, said Chinese President Hu Jintao here Thursday.

Hu told visiting Iranian Vice-President Mohammad Setarifar thatthe China-Iran ties progressed further in the new century with the care and promotion from the two countries' leaders.

Common consensus between China and Iran in regional and international affairs were increasing, Hu said.

The two countries' exchange in all fields and aspects was more active. Trade and economic cooperation expanded quickly, Hu said.

The cultural dialogue between China and Iran also served to promote understanding and friendship between the two peoples, the Chinese president said.

As developing countries, China and Iran were both endeavored to make economic progress and improve the people's living standards and were facing the common task of maintaining and promoting regional peace, stability and development, Hu acknowledged.

Iran and China share long-term friendship and they kept sound relationships and good cooperation in all fields, Setarifar said.

The two countries' consensus in many aspects were conducive forthem to realize economic development and maintain world peace.

Potential in economic cooperation between the two countries wasalso huge and Iran will enhance cooperation with China on oil and natural gas, mining and traffic, Setarifar said.

Setarifar was here to co-chair a China-Iran commission meeting for economic, trade, scientific and technological cooperation, which was spoke highly of by the Chinese president. Enditem

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-04/08/content_1408888.htm

Negotiations Begin with Radical Shiite Leader

April 08, 2004
DEBKAfile
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

Since Wednesday, April 7, four Shiite delegations have been in secret negotiation with radical Shiite leader Moqtada Sadr in Najef for an end to the uprising he instigated five days ago in a half a dozen Iraqi cities including Baghdad. This is reported exclusively by DEBKAfile’s intelligence and Iraqi sources. The four groups represent the Shiite Dawa Party, the Islamic Action Party, Shiite members of the provisional Iraq Governing Council and SCIRI, the faction headed by council member Abdel Aziz al Hakim, brother of the Grand Ayatollah who was assassinated last year in Najef. No Americans are in direct talks with the outlawed Shiite firebrand, but the negotiating teams are in continuous communication with US administration heads in Baghdad.

America’s handling of the radical Shiite uprising is going forward on two levels:

The military level:

Fresh US divisions newly arrived in the country are overlapping with the divisions which have been held back from ending their one-year stint in order to boost the coalition’s military effort to stamp out spiraling Sunni and Shiite violence. Coalition strength stands now at 145,000-strong, of which 125,000 are US troops. They are availed of immense armored and aerial firepower for combat against the Shiite militia in the south, the Sunni insurgents in central Iraq and al Qaeda and foreign combatants on both fronts. There are also the first makings of anti-US Sunni-Shiite coordination, as confirmed by Iraqi commander Gen. Ricardo Sanchez in his press briefing Thursday, April 8 - in Baghdad, northern parts of the Sunni Triangle near Kirkuk and a number of East Iraqi cities in the vicinity of the Iranian border.

The administrative-political level:

The four Shiite teams talking to Sadr in Najaf is one channel. Another is the instigation of a stream of missives from a group of Iranian ayatollahs centered in the holy city of Qom and jointly opposed to the hard-line regime in Tehran. These respected clerics are urging Sadr to give up violence and reach terms with the US-led coalition. DEBKAfile’s Tehran sources report the first of these letters has been sent out by Ayatollah Hosseini Shirazi.

The four Shiite teams talking to the maverick cleric in Najef are pitching the following arguments:

US intelligence has evidence that the hands behind the Shiite uprising belong to Iran and the Lebanese Hizballah, operating through the veteran Lebanese arch terrorist Imad Mughniyeh. They advise the 31-year old Shiite rebel to look over his shoulder, because he will then discover that he was tossed onto the Iraqi warfront to fight alone without the promised support structure for himself and his Mehdi Army militia. He is warned most solemnly that if he continues along the road of fire and blood, the Americans are determined to eliminate him with the hard core of his following and his militia. The continuation of the US offensive against his forces will leave a bloody mark on the entire Iraqi Shiite community and Sadr will be blamed for the calamity.

This line of persuasion rests on two US intelligence assessments:

1. Indications that Sadr and his men are themselves overwhelmed by the consequences of their revolt and reluctant to press on with fresh military initiatives. That judgment was refuted almost as soon as it was formulated by initial reports of a Shiite radical strike Wednesday against a new target, Japanese forces, in a new location, the Sunni Triangle city of Samarra.

2. The Mehdi Army was seen to fall back on more than one front. While retaining its grip on Najef, Diwaniyeh and al Kut, its commanders struck deals in Nasseriyeh with the Italians and Basra with British forces to hand over town centers. Furthermore, on Wednesday, April 7, Shiite forces managed to besiege the Polish base in Karbala and were poised to move in to attack when at the last moment they pulled back. They had heard that US fighter jets and helicopters were on their way to strike them. US analysts misread those signals. On Thursday, the Shiite withdrawals turned out to have been tactical. Shiite militiamen returned to the battle against Polish and Bulgarian troops and opened up new war arenas.

It is clear to the negotiating teams and the Americans that no real momentum will be achieved in the talks before the Shiite Arbain observance in the coming weekend, where between two and three million pilgrims are awaited in Karbala, most of them Iranian. Many will also step over to visit the shrines of Najef, obliging the Americans to leave a clear field for Sadr in the two Shiite shrine cities and the roads linking them.

For the moment, the Shiite rebel leader has four large incentives for dragging out the negotiations as long as possible:

A. The opening day of the Arbain observance is proclaimed only after authorized imams determine the moon has reached the correct angle over Iraq. This leaves the Arbain date up in the air and at the discretion of Sadr and his ability to obtain a determination that fits his strategy.

B. He also needs time to see if the Iranians make good on their promise to pump reinforcements and arms to his militia under cover of the mass pilgrimage. He will not get his answer before the weekend or early next week.

C. A spark could inflame the millions of Shiite pilgrims and send them on a jihadist rampage against US and coalition bases across southern Iraq. The Americans, pinned down by Sunni insurgents north and west of Baghdad, do not command sufficient strength close by to stem a mass stampede of potential suicides. That threat Sadr still holds over coalition heads.

D. The Shiite cleric will profit from extra time also to continue to cultivate his militia’s operational ties with Sunni insurgent forces battling the Americans, especially in Fallujah and Ramadi. Gen. Sanchez confirmed Thursday there is coordination “at the lowest level” and said it must be contained.

Also Thursday, mixed Sunni-Shiite groups in Baghdad and surrounding cities began organizing for a march to bring food and aid to the “injured and hungry” population of besieged Fallujah. Muezzins of Baghdad’s Sadr City called on Shiites to donate blood. Aid convoys began flowing to the embattled Sunni Triangle town. They are believed to be the advance guard for tens of thousands of civilians to swarm through the city and disrupt the US anti-insurgency offensive. Any interference would be condemned at once as “human rights abuses.” General Sanchez hastened to assure the assembled media Thursday that “the people of Fallujah would not be cut off from humanitarian aid.”

On all four grounds, it is hard to imagine US-backed Shiite negotiating process getting very far before early next week.

The Sunni warfront focuses mainly on Fallujah where Thursday saw intense street combat between US Marines, who suffered 3 dead and many wounded, and a new Iraqi guerrilla force. DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the new Al Farouk Battalions are made up of ex-officers and NCOs from crack units of Saddam’s Special Republic Guards, who were barred from joining the New Iraqi Army, and al Qaeda elements. They have recently acquired advanced rocket-propelled grenades smuggled in from Lebanon and Syria.

http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=823

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