Posted on 05/24/2004 8:20:06 AM PDT by Keith
well lets hope that this is correct and BUsh and the Rs can turn things around
I just read that not only may we lose the Senate but the House as well! I definitlely thought that we had the House no matter what :(
Yeah. Crazy, wacky me for finding this sort of thing even the teensiest bit troubling, obviously. < /sarcasm>
That said, I agree with their current analysis. Maybe both the RCP folks and I are incurable optimists.
In Vietnam, by contrast, LBJ tried to win a war while telling the home front, "life is good, keep up the boom times, it's business as usual".
In this important respect, the war on Islamic fascism is more like Vietnam.
The above link is an archive of realclearpolitcs in late october. It was the closest I could find to election day. Everybody was showing Bush ahead back then. It was the standard "three days before the election" sleaze attack that hurt Bush the most and threw all the numbers off. There wasnt enough time for the people to digest it and for Bush to recover completly. They WILL try it again. But this time we can be ready and warn the people. In fact it was expected so much in California with Arnold it really had no effect at all.
Excellent analysis, as usual, by the folks at RCP.
They were spot on in nearly every election since the '00 Presidential election... See the '02 Senate races, where they almost nailed every single race!
That's not what he's saying...we need to keep cool...this back and forth is going to happen all year.
In that case, we should do what we didn't have the guts to do in Vietnam. Win the freakin' war and not worry about what the naysayers are saying. I know many of these guys and gals miss the 1960's and the Vietnam War. They miss the protests and every thing that went along with it. By allowing them to "win" the Vietnam war for the Communism, our country suffered a major loss that we are still trying to get over. This war in Iraq is our chance to show them that we can do a war like this the right way!
i'm a positive thinker.
i expect that democrat anti-war stupidity will increase, but after june 30th, and the turnover of the government to iraq, president bush's lot will improve. also, the economy's on the mend.
if president bush does lose the election, instrumental will be the sickos with their photos at abu graib. i hope all involved get the maximum sentence. this issue of all the things brought up by the dems this year got the most traction.
* . . .if president bush does lose the election, instrumental will be the sickos with their photos at abu graib . . ."
Not to mention voter fraud. Dead democrats will still show up at polling places, so will illegals, and others bought and paid for by the DNC.
I'm sure there is something up their sleeves.
I find his numbers freefall troubling too and when I point it out, I get attacked here. Ridiculous.
I'm not attacking either one...I think if it were debate time and it looked like this, I would share your view...but it's not, so I don't...ok?
One thing is certain. VietNam was very much like VietNam. In 1972 after 8 years of war where 58 thousand American troops (mostly draftees) died, Richard Nixon won the biggest re-election victory of the 20th century.
If Iraq does for Bush what VietNam did for Richard Nixon, Bush wins 61 percent to 37.5 percent.
If Iraq does for Bush what WWII did for Franklin Roosevelt in 1944 then Bush wins 53 to 46.
Nixon did a lot better with Viet Nam as the issue in 72 than FDR did with WWII in 1944.
Oh just for the record in the summer 1944 we had just done little except take some worthless sand in Africa, and a couple of islands in the South Pacific. We were in danger of losing the war in Europe and Asia. It did not look all that good.
We had done little in the Asian theater except take a few islands. We had not bombed Japan and we were in real trouble in China. WE were losing bombers at a fantastic rate in Europe. Victory was anything but certain.
Today's media would have thought that after the first 3, long, non productive, WWII, years all was lost. But we were a little over a year and a three quarters from total victory.
Our major media is our worst enemy and none of us should ever forget it.
Did you know that reporters were drafted into the military in WWII. Everything they wrote or said on the air had to be approved by military censors before it could be aired. Failure of the war reporters to get approval before filing a story, could be punished by death by firing squad.
All battlefield reporters were drafted and given a rank equal to a 2nd john... but with no command authority. They were all subject to military law.
I often wonder if Tom Brokaw would like to report the war news under the rules adopted by the GREATEST GENERATION.
There is a lifetime until election time. 51% of the electorate apparently haven't got the news that the economy has been doing great for months now. Gas prices could continue to soar, though the news earlier was saying that they exect a drop around Memorial Day. June 30th hands over contorl of Iraq to the Interim Government. Basically, there are numerous things that could change wholesale in a day, much less five months. They could hurt Bush, they could help him. To begin to despair or celebrate now about any of them is premature.
Well, Doolittle....
Nixon was not in very good shape in the polls in June of 1972 either. Nixons people knew that Howard Hughes had given big bucks to the DNC. That is why they broke into the DNC headquarters in the WaterGate building. They wanted to prove that the Democrats were getting illegal money.
If the Nixon campaign had known the media buzz and polls were bull crap, they would never have broken into Larry O'Brians office of the DNC in hte Watergate.
Most of the media polls are really off. They typically interview 29 percent repubicans and 36 percent democrats and 35 percent independents. That way they can get a tie or a slight Kerry lead.
If they polled by using the real makeup it would be 45- 45 R & D and 10 indpendent. Using the real voter make up Bush is up about 7 points. .. about where FDR was in 1944 during WWII.
At this point Bush is not doing quite as well as Nixon did in 1972. But then Nixon was not doing all that well at this time of the year in 1972.
If Kerry though he was well ahead, he would not be trying to delay accepting his nomination. Even if he does mange to delay Bush will bury him.
"Everyone needs to settle down. Republicans should take a deep breath and perhaps take an early Memorial Day vacation and Democrats who are rubbing their hands thinking they are headed for the White House might want to temper their enthusiasm. President Bush is not nearly in as bad of shape as you would think from reading the papers or listening to the punditry on TV. "
I think a lot of people missed that part.
Dolittle did little in comparison to what the Japanese did to us at Pearl Harbor.
The Doolittle raid did zero dammage to the Japanese. It convinced them that a wimpy failed bombing run,where we lost all our bombers was all we could do to them.
In the world as the Japanese saw it, they sawed off our legs at Pearl Harbor and they DoLittle response was to stomp on their toe.
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