Battleground States Poll: (Kerry is ahead in 12/16 Zogby sauced battleground state polls)

wsj.com ^ | 05/24/04 | wsj

[KQQL]

Zogby 16 state polls

May 18-23

Bush and Kerry may be speaking to all of America, but their campaign advisers are focusing on a narrower slice of the population and targeting the candidates' messages to voters in particularly contentious states. Zogby Interactive is conducting polls in 16 of those states chosen by WSJ.com. See the latest results.

[KQQL]

CAUTION FOLKS: THIS IS ANOTHER SET OF JUNK POLLS FROM ZOGBY.

This time via online

ZOGBY INTERACTIVE

[SteelTrap]

Horse hockey - welcome to Free Republic.

Put me down for a dozen cardboard boxes and a roll of tape.

[lepton]

I don't trust zogby polls, they were way off in 2002.

They were way off in 2000, as well. Very few of his state polls were anywhere close, just his composite - which suggests an accident.

[lepton]

Zogby was kicked around badly on FR before the 2000 election but he was closer than anyone else to picking it right.

Only in his composite. His state-by-state was all over the place.

[Koblenz]

It isn't looking great for Bush at the moment. He can turn it around, but he needs to do something to do that.

Should Kerry win, and the Dems take the Senate and House, then our stock market would be much like the Indian stock market last week. Geez. I don't think the Dems have a great shot at the house, particularly with redistricting in Texas, but if Bush keeps wallowing in the polls, the Dems could sweep. Then your investments are going to be in the toilet...

[perez24]

I used to take part in those polls, and you would be surprised how many ethnicities I claimed at one time or another.

To me, it's just a slightly more scientific internet poll than the ones MSNBC etc. conduct on their websites that get freeped regularly.

[Torie]

I think Zog tries to correct the participants per his little internal weighting system. Still, the sample is by no means random. Bush is losing everywhere, except Iowa, per the polls. LOL.

[Torie]

Click on Battleground States near the top of the page to the right, and then use your cursor to scan over the usual suspect states. You know, Florida, Ohio, Penn, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire, etc. Tennessee is included for some odd reason, where Bush has a narrow lead.

[AntiGuv]

Here are the numbers from this WSJ interactive link.

Zogby Interactive polls conducted May 18-23:

ARKANSAS
Bush: 49.3%
Kerry: 44.5%
Nader: 1.2%
MOE: ±4.5 pct pts

FLORIDA
Bush: 47.6%
Kerry: 49.0%
Nader: 1.0%
MOE: ±3.4 pct pts

IOWA
Bush: 50.1%
Kerry: 44.9%
Nader: 0.8%
MOE: ±4.0 pct pts

MICHIGAN
Bush: 41.2%
Kerry: 49.5%
Nader: 2.4%
MOE: ±4.0 pct pts

MINNESOTA
Bush: 42.0%
Kerry: 51.3%
Nader: 3.4%
MOE: ±3.2 pct pts

MISSOURI
Bush: 43.9%
Kerry: 47.2%
Nader: 2.1%
MOE: ±4.3 pct pts

NEVADA
Bush: 43.5%
Kerry: 47.3%
Nader: 2.8%
MOE: ±4.3 pct pts

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Bush: 39.9%
Kerry: 49.5%
Nader: 2.2%
MOE: ±4.3 pct pts

NEW MEXICO
Bush: 43.3%
Kerry: 48.4%
Nader: 2.9%
MOE: ±4.6 pct pts

OHIO
Bush: 44.8%
Kerry: 49.4%
Nader: 0.9%
MOE: ±4.1 pct pts

OREGON
Bush: 44.3%
Kerry: 49.7%
Nader: 2.9%
MOE: ±3.2 pct pts

PENNSYLVANIA
Bush: 42.6%
Kerry: 50.8%
Nader: 1.8%
MOE: ±3.8 pct pts

TENNESSEE
Bush: 49.3%
Kerry: 46.8%
Nader: 0.6%
MOE: ±3.0 pct pts

WASHINGTON
Bush: 44.4%
Kerry: 52.5%
Nader: 1.3%
MOE: ±4.3 pct pts

WEST VIRGINIA
Bush: 48.3%
Kerry: 45.9%
Nader: 2.0%
MOE: ±4.4 pct pts

WISCONSIN
Bush: 43.7%
Kerry: 51.9%
Nader: 1.4%
MOE: ±3.4 pct pts

[Darheel]

The only people who believe polls are Liberals and Democrats anyway. Poll dreck is the byproduct of Liberal insecurity, imo.

[AntiGuv]

Just for the record, this is how Zogby's tracking polls held up in 2000.

California

Zogby: Bush 44%; Gore 47%
Actual: Bush 42%; Gore 54%

Florida

Zogby: Bush 46%; Gore 48%
Actual: Bush 49%; Gore 49%

Illinois

Zogby: Bush 43%; Gore 50%
Actual: Bush 43%; Gore 55%

Michigan

Zogby: Bush 45%; Gore 51%
Actual: Bush 46%; Gore 51%

Missouri

Zogby: Bush 48%; Gore 47%
Actual: Bush 50%; Gore 47%

New York

Zogby: Bush 39%; Gore 53%
Actual: Bush 35%; Gore 60%

Ohio

Zogby: Bush 50%; Gore 43%
Actual: Bush 50%; Gore 46%

Pennsylvania

Zogby: Bush 42%; Gore 50%
Actual: Bush 46%; Gore 51%

Tennessee

Zogby: Bush 52%; Gore 45%
Actual: Bush 51%; Gore 47%

Washington

Zogby: Bush 43%; Gore 50%
Actual: Bush 46%; Gore 50%

Wisconsin

Zogby: Bush 46%; Gore 46%
Actual: Bush 48%; Gore 48%

[AntiGuv]

I just thought you may want to be mindful of his record when you choose to dismiss his polling..

Of course, his misfires are also notorious - the 2002 midterms in particular.

[dc-zoo]

QuokkaPerth
Since May 22, 2004

[katz]

No one polled me.

[lp boonie]

Real inspired thinking. And if Bush wins what does it mean? Six months before the election and you can already predict the how the war in Iraq will go. You must be rich with your clairvoyant abilities.

[InterceptPoint]

I don't trust zogby polls, they were way off in 2002.

That's very good news because he won the prize in 2000. Do you have some good examples?

[KQQL]

Actual Zogby polls are sauced and Crap.

INTERACTIVE AS CRAPOLA

[KQQL]

Actual Zogby polls are sauced and Crap.

INTERACTIVE ARE CRAPOLA

[Tuxedo]

Kerry ahead in Nevada???? Yeah, right....