Posted on 06/24/2004 11:01:05 AM PDT by ambrose
June 24, 2004 -- Bush, Kerry in dead heat in Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University poll finds; Nader holds the key to keystone state
President George W. Bush has inched up on Democratic challenger John Kerry among Pennsylvania voters and now has 43 percent to Sen. Kerry's 44 percent, with 7 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 44 – 41 percent lead for Kerry, with 6 percent for Nader, in a May 27 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.
Bush's job approval also has moved up from an all-time Pennsylvania low of negative 41 – 55 percent May 27 to negative 45 - 53 percent today.
Voters say 50 – 43 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do, similar to the May 27 findings.
"Pennsylvania is living up to expectations as having one of the closest presidential battles in the nation. Ralph Nader clearly is cutting into Sen. Kerry's vote, leaving him in a dead heat with President Bush," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"The Kerry number remains unchanged since May, but the President is inching up slightly despite the fact a majority of Pennsylvania voters now say the Iraq war was the wrong thing to do."
The economy is the most important issue in deciding how they will vote, 43 percent of voters say, with 28 percent who list Iraq and 25 percent who list terrorism. Kerry would do a better job on the economy, voters say 50 – 43 percent. Bush is best on Iraq, voters say 47 – 44 percent, and on terrorism, voters say 53 – 38 percent.
Senate Race In the Senate race, incumbent Republican Sen. Arlen Specter is holding on to a 50 – 35 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Joseph Hoeffel, the Democratic challenger, compared to a 49 - 37 percent lead May 27.
Pennsylvania voters give Specter a 36 – 21 percent favorability rating, with 30 percent mixed and 12 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Hoeffel has not improved his recognition among voters and gets a 10 – 7 percent favorability rating, with 9 percent mixed and 73 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
"Sen. Specter has increased his lead slightly over Rep. Hoeffel who remains an unknown to 73 percent of Pennsylvania voters. About a third of Republicans say Specter is too liberal for Pennsylvania, but about the same number of GOP voters say the same of Hoeffel, so the issue is probably a wash," Richards said.
Governor's Approval Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell has stepped over the magic 50 percent mark, with a 51 – 31 percent approval rating.
"Gov. Rendell has tied his previous high in job approval despite the looming budget deadline and the deadlock with the legislature over placing slot machines at racetracks and elsewhere in the state," Richards said.
From June 21 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 839 Pennsylvania registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research.
(Excerpt) Read more at quinnipiac.edu ...
2000 Results:
Gore (50.6%)
Bush (46.4%)
http://www.presidentelect.org/e2000.html
I posted this at http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1159334/posts
Hmmm... could PA and OH flip from D to R, R to D, this time out?
One intersting thing is that Nader has been polling around the 5-10% range in this and other polls. He only received 2.7% in the 2000 election. When push comes to shove about half of these Nader votes will probably go to Kerry.
Some will also go to Bush... people here keep seeing Nader as some far-left ideological choice... and he is, to many true believing Greenies... to others, however, he simply acts as a "none of the above" choice.
That's pretty close. PA is heavily Democrat and libertarian, with the conservative vote split between Republicans and Libertarians.
Kerry would do a better job on the economy, voters say 50 – 43 percent. Bush is best on Iraq, voters say 47 – 44 percent, and on terrorism, voters say 53 – 38 percent.Really? What would he do? Cut federal spending? How? The Line Item Veto? Increase taxes *again*? Both? Or maybe he'd eliminate our dependence on imported oil... his campaign has made that claim already, without any specifics.
George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent
I did a family poll yesterday and these are the results:
Bush 100% Kerry 0% Nader 0%
Of course, it was my family... Just thought I'd throw this poll out there, because it means as much as all these other polls. Nada.
They most certainly could flip. The key here, is that Bush is running better in some places where in 2000 in ran horribly, but Pubbies typically run somewhat better. That includes New Jersey, the California coast, and the Philadelphia suburbs. Ohio on the other hand has a sluggish economy.
Nader cut Gore's margin by about four tenths of one percent last time, and this time it is a great big fat zero so far, if one believes the polls. 25% of Nader voters would have otherwise voted for Bush in 2000, 40% for Gore, and the rest would not have voted, or voted for some other fringe candidate. This time, it appears to be next to a total wash.
Gas is dropped from $2.039 per gallon to $1.959 per gallon at my station.
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